I've been experimenting with this in DRA for a while. Gass3268 and I were talking about it and he recommended I do a post on it!
Assuming MN loses a seat, I wanted to see what a Democratic trifecta might draw. Any input from MN posters would be great!
My goals:
- Keep municipalities whole.
- Cut a Republican seat.
- Avoid weakening swingy seats held by Democrats.
- Keep the map clean!
Statewide:
I calculated the 2004 numbers, but the PVI’s are from 2008/2012
CD1
PVI: R+1
As with the current map, this is mostly the southern tier. Swingy, but pretty safe for Walz.
CD2
PVI: D+3
Most of my efforts around the Hennepin County revolved around making this as clean and Democratic as possible. The anchor of the district is swingy Dakota County. It reaches up into Hennepin County to pick up some Democratic municipalities currently in CDs 3 and 5. In terms of who would run here, I’m guessing Kline would retire rather than run in a seat that Obama won by 10 points. I don’t know much about state politics, I’m sure the MN posters here have an idea of what Democrats could run here.
CD3
PVI: R+11
This is basically the successor to Bachmann’s 6th. This is the suburban Republican sink. Emmer, I’m assuming he gets the nomination and wins the seat, would represent the majority of this seat. Paulsen would either have to run her as underdog in the primary or finally run statewide.
CD4
PVI: D+10
Not much to see. It’s based in Ramsey County plus ads a few municipalities in Anoka County (which collectively went for Obama narrowly). Safe for McCollum, or any local Democrat.
CD5
PVI: D+15
CD5 still includes all of Minneapolis proper. To make CD2 as Democratic as possible, I had to unpack this seat; as such, it takes in almost all of GOP-friendly north/west Hennepin County.
CD6
PVI: R+5
I drew this seat to be as friendly as possible to Peterson, or at least winnable for a Democrat when he retires. Compared to the actual seat, it takes in more of the Iron Range, but pulls out of some southern counties. All of St. Cloud is here, which has some very odd municipal boundaries. Overall, it moves from Romney +10 to Romney +6.
CD7
PVI: D+1
Basically the old 8th extends south and is renumbered CD7. Washington County actually cast more votes than St. Louis. As the seat is more Democratic downballot that its PVI would indicate, it should be good for Nolan. Obama (2012), though, actually only did .1% better than Kerry. Kerry performed better around Duluth, but Obama offset that with gains closer to the Twin Cities. Also, in 2012, this seat became more Republican than the rest of the state.
