Wisconsin Megathread

[Gass3268]

Walker Approval: 38% Approve / 58% Disapprove
Republicans In State Legislature: 31% Approve / 60% Disapprove
Democrats In State Legislature: 39% Approve / 49% Disapprove

The number that is really killing Walker is among Independents. 29% Approve / 58% Disapprove and this was the group of people that got him elected 3 times.

[Gass3268]

Walker spent an average of 48 minutes a day doing state work during campaign

[Gass3268]

State Senator Rick Gudew (18 - Fond du Lac) will not run for reelection

He won in 2012 by only 600 in a R+2 district. Winnebago County Executive Mark Harris (D) has already announced that he's is running. Dan Feyen, who chairs both the Fond du Lac County Republican Party and the Republican Party of the 6th Congressional District, will be running on the Republican side.

This will be probably the only competitive senate districts of the 2016 cycle. If the trends continue in the central part of the state, Julia Lassa might be in a battle in SD-24, but she has always out performed the national mood. Republicans should be very grateful that some of the more competitive districts (SD-17, SD-19, SD-23) are always up during midterms.

[Gass3268]

Walker's approvals are still very poor

38% Approve
57% Disapprove

Majority do not want him to run again

31% Run Again
61% Don't Run Again

[Gass3268]

Walker's approvals are still very poor

38% Approve
57% Disapprove

Majority do not want him to run again

31% Run Again
61% Don't Run Again

Wouldn't it be funny and awesome if Walker got blanched like that? Wonder if they'd become the first state to repeal RTW.

Would need to flip the legislature. The Senate is hard, but possible. However the Assembly is essentially impossible.

[Gass3268]

Kind is not particularly liked with a lot of movement folks in the Democratic Party. I think he could get a lot of the same complaints as Abele. Personally I would love any of the 3 State Senators that you mentioned or Dane County Executive Joe Parisi. 

[Gass3268]

ISTHMUS: 6 Democrats Who Could Run in 2018

[Gass3268]

ISTHMUS: 6 Democrats Who Could Run in 2018

You don't want Moore.

Agreed, she wouldn't win. Plus she does good work in the House.

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin's Spring Election primary was held yesterday. Here are some of the more interesting results:

Wisconsin Supreme Court
Rebecca G. Bradley (inc)   251,826   45 %   
Joanne F. Kloppenburg   243,190   43 %   
Joe Donald                   68,373   12 %

Bradley was running for election to the Supreme Court, before being appointed by Scott Walker in October to finish the term of Justice N. Patrick Crooks, who died in September. Walker had previously appointed Bradley to the Milwaukee County Circuit Court in 2012 and the District 1 Court of Appeals in May 2015. Kloppenburg narrowly lost to Justice Prosser in 2011 during the Union protests. These results ended up being much closer then many were expecting for the primary. I imagine the general election in April will be close.

Milwaukee County Executive
Chris J. Larson                  48,258   45 %   
Chris Abele (inc)          47,550   44 %   
Steve Hogan                    6,541   6 %   
Joseph Thomas Klein            4,685   4 %   

I imagine you could cross off Abele for Governor if he loses in the general.

Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett only won by 13%. He should still end up winning in April, but I imagine it will be the closest election running for Mayor.   

[Gass3268]

Not good for Bradley in April, certainly depends on R vs D turnout in the presidential primary, but the total D leaning vs R leaning vote here was a 55/45 split. A Bradley defeat would be a total blow to Scott Walker.

Side Note: This was the first election where I actually voted. A pretty lame first vote

Congrats on voting for the first time! I remember voting for the first time in 2006 (Governor and Senate elections back in WI). Hopefully things are more interesting on 4/5.

[Gass3268]

Marquette University Poll
Rebecca G. Bradley (inc) 30%  
Joanne F. Kloppenburg 30%

Walker's approval ratting is relatively the same at 39% approve, 55% disapprove

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin State Supreme Court 2016 Primary



Rebecca G. Bradley (inc) 45% (Blue)
Joanne F. Kloppenburg 43% (Red)
Joe Donald 12%

Wisconsin State Supreme Court 2016 Primary (Combined Liberal Support)



Joanne F. Kloppenburg + Joe Donald = 55% (Red)
Rebecca G. Bradley (inc) 45% (Blue)

Obviously not every vote that went to Joe Donald would go to Joanne Klopenburg, but a large majority should. Going to be interesting to see how this race turns out in April, especially with potentially tow competitive presidential primaries on the ballot at the same time.

[Gass3268]

Newly appointed state Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley in student newspaper columns 24 years ago said she had no sympathy for AIDS patients because they had effectively chosen to kill themselves, called gays "queers" and said Americans were "either totally stupid or entirely evil" for electing President Bill Clinton.

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[Gass3268]

I understand that it was 24 years ago and people can change. Still, not a good look.

[Gass3268]

This is not the type of stories you want in the news less than a month before your election:

Justice Rebecca Bradley left oral arguments early last week so she could give a speech to the Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce

Rebecca Bradley in 1992: Camille Paglia 'legitimately suggested' women play role in date rape

In college column, Bradley likened abortion to Holocaust, slavery

[Gass3268]

State Senator Mary Lazich (R-New Berlin) will not seek relection

She joins Rick Gudex (Fond du Lac) as the second Republican Senator to not seek reelection this year.

Reps. John Murtha (R-Baldwin); David Heaton (R-Wausau); Dean Knudson (R-Hudson); and Tom Larson (R-Colfax), and Andy Jorgensen (D-Milton) are not running in the Assembly.

[Gass3268]

So, I'm still undecided about this Supreme Court race. It seems like all of the discourse over the past few weeks has just been hit pieces and discussing the past. My initial inclination was that I'm likely to vote for Bradley, but I'm not exactly thrilled that Bradley voted to increase the power of police searches to private property without the owner's permission, for example. Anybody know where I can get a breakdown of where these two stand in their policy outlook and how they would vote in certain cases? Or has that been entirely ignored this season?

Anyway, Kloppenberg is probably going to win this, 54/46 I think.

Usually the newspapers have a breakdown the Sunday before the vote. At least that's what I remember from the past.

[Gass3268]

Results of the new Marquette poll:

Bradley: 40.9%
Kloppenburg: 36.0%

https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L

That's a huge undecided number.

[Gass3268]

Results of the new Marquette poll:

Bradley: 40.9%
Kloppenburg: 36.0%

https://t.co/eifW2aSx7L

That's a huge undecided number.

Presumably much of the state doesn't know who they are. I'd bet a lot of the undecideds undervote.

This explains why we get retention races where only Dane County and the WOW counties know what the stakes are, even if they are on different sides of the political coin. Pretty frustrating considering Wisconsin is supposedly one of the more politically engaged and civic minded states in the country.

[Gass3268]

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Big news in the Supreme Court race if true and it holds.

[Gass3268]

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Big news in the Supreme Court race if true and it holds.

If democrats win, they retake the control of the SC?

No, but it would go back to 4-3. Currently it's 5-2.

[Gass3268]

DDHQ Exit Poll:
St Supreme Court Kloppenburg 54% Bradley 46%

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Good to know Wisconsin doesn't care about AIDS victims.

[Gass3268]

Good to know Wisconsin doesn't care about AIDS victims.

^

lol. A horrible comment 24 years ago is TOTALLY relevant to being a justice on a state supreme court. Totally.

She had a more recent comment, in 2006, that people on birth control are "party to murder." She's a nut.