Wisconsin Megathread

[Gass3268]

Senate District 33

Counties: Waukesha 
Three Largest Entities: Waukesha, Pewaukee and Sussex   
PVI: R+19.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 33,951 (33.06%)/ Romney 67,687 (65.92%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 37,527 (37.38%)/ McCain 61,850 (61.60%)
Swing: 8.64% Republican
Trend: 1.67% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+19/R+19

Senator: Paul Farrow

Party: Republican
Last Election: Paul Farrow 22,665 (70.4%)/ Eric Prudent 9,503 (29.5%) (2012 Special Election) 
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 2012
Hometown: Pewaukee
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: Carroll College
Birthday: 7/17/1964
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Self-Employed
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district got much more compact as it pulled out of Washington County and took in a lot of parts that was previously in 11th Senate District. This is a very safe Republican Milwaukee suburban district, but its also pretty compact so that’s good.

Assembly District 97

Counties Waukesha
PVI: R+13
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,577 (39.82%)/ Romney 18,582 (58.82%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,608 (43.16%)/ McCain 17,555 (55.68%)
Swing: 6.49% Republican
Trend: 0.48% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+13.5/R+11

Representative: Bill Kramer

Party: Republican
Last Election: Bill Kramer 18,399 (64.6%)/ Marga Krumins 10,051 (35.3%)   
Obama Comparison: +4.53%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Waukesha
Prior Offices: Waukesha County Board
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater (Bachelors)/ Duke University (J.D.)
Birthday: 1/21/1965
Place of Birth: Waukesha, WI
Profession: Financial Planner, Attorney and CPA 
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: This district takes the southern parts of the city of Waukesha and some rural parts to its southwest. This is a very Republican seat.   

Assembly District 98

Counties: Waukesha
PVI: R+18.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,636 (33.65%)/ Romney 22,608 (65.38%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,163 (38.31%)/ McCain 19,272 (60.70%)
Swing: 9.34% Republican
Trend: 2.37% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+18.5/R+21

Representative: Adam Neylon

Party: Republican
Last Election: Unopposed (Special Election)
Obama Comparison: Unopposed
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Pewaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: Carroll University 
Birthday: 12/30/1984
Place of Birth: Elgin, IL
Profession: Small Busniess Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This seat takes up the northern parts of the city of Waukesha along with Pewaukee and Sussex. This is also a very Republican seat.

Assembly District 99

Counties: Waukesha
PVI: R+25.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 9,738 (26.66%)/ 26,497 (72.55%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 11,756 (31.66%)/ 25,023 (67.39%)
Swing: 10.16% Republican
Trend: 3.19% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+24/R+23.5

Representative: Chris Kapenga

Party: Republican
Last Election: Chris Kapenga 26,314 (76.3%)/ Thomas Hibbard 8,166 (23.7%)
Obama Comparison: +2.99%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Delafield
Prior Offices: None
Education: Holland Christian and Calvin College
Birthday: 2/19/1972
Place of Birth: Zeeland, MI
Profession: Busniess Owner
Religion: Evangelical Christian 

Notes: This takes up the area directly west of the city of Waukesha. Takes in the areas that make up the Arrowhead and Kettle Moraine School Districts.

[Gass3268]

Here is the State Legislature ranked from the most Democratic seat to the most Republican seat. All of the PVI numbers are based on the state average, which is 54.52% Democratic, rather then the national average. I would argue that it is definitely possible for the Democrats to take back the Senate, but it would require a great year and probably a few open seats.   

[Gass3268]

Outside of Milwaukee, Wisconsin is very white. Also I'd guess that Senate District 3 will be plurality Hispanic by the end of the decade.

[Gass3268]

Here is the State Assembly ranked from the most Democratic seat to the most Republican seat. All of the PVI numbers are based on the state average, which is 54.52% Democratic, rather then the national average. The Assembly is almost impossible for the Dems to get back, baring a huge wave or some crazy unexpected trends.

[Gass3268]

Again this shows the whiteness of Wisconsin. 6 African American majority districts, 1 Hispanic majority district and 1 Hispanic plurality district, all in Milwaukee. District 66 could become only white plurality by the end of the decade as the district takes up most of Downtown Racine.   

[Gass3268]

Any questions?

[Gass3268]

Here is the State Legislature ranked from the most Democratic seat to the most Republican seat. All of the PVI numbers are based on the state average, which is 54.52% Democratic, rather then the national average. I would argue that it is definitely possible for the Democrats to take back the Senate, but it would require a great year and probably a few open seats.   

If we wanted to have the national average, we have to add 4.52 point of %?

Excellent job Gass

You would subtract 2.58% to the Republican districts and add 2.58% to the Democratic districts.

[Gass3268]

Thank you Gass! So the wisconsin senate can become a dem majority in a democratic year.

Has Scott Walker recovered?

It is possible, but it would be difficult and we could only have majority at best by one seat. Walker has been recovered since the recalls. I don't think its impossible that he could lose, it is just extremely unlikely.

[Gass3268]

Good news!

http://www.postcrescent.com/viewart/U0/20130723/APC010403/307230196/Bernard-Schaber-will-challenge-Ellis-state-Senate

This is the best candidate that the Democrats could put forward in Senate District 19. I would still say that Senator Ellis is the favorite, but this development could make it closer. 

[Gass3268]

From what I've been hearing Ron Johnson is one of the weakest 2010 'Pubs, even weaker than Mark Kirk. So how weak is he exactly, and how likely is it that he'll win reelection?

It will depend on who runs against him. If Feingold wants the seat back, I think Johnson would be in trouble. Also I think Ron Kind could be competitive.

[Gass3268]

It's looking like Madison School Board member Mary Burke is the favorite to become the Democratic nominee for governor. Her main claim to fame is that she is the heir to the Trek Bicycle Company which is located in Waterloo, WI. She would be able to self fund, which could be critical against Walker.   

http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=304068

[Gass3268]

Mary Burke also formally announces that she'll be running for governor!

http://www.wqow.com/story/23624154/businesswoman-mary-burke-enters-governors-race

[Gass3268]

My state senator is retiring, despite a poor performance by him in 2010 I don't think this is much of a GOP pickup opportunity. Did walker even win it?

http://www.northlandsnewscenter.com/news/nw-wisconsin/Wis-Senator-Bob-Jauch-retiring-227075001.html

I think Barrett won it both times. Ashland, Bayfield and Douglas are just too Dem for the other areas of the district to overcome.

[Gass3268]

http://host.madison.com/news/state-and-regional/democrat-wittwer-to-run-for-schultz-s-senate-seat/article_98151985-842f-53b6-81a2-f7613176e780.html

Ernie Wittwer, a former budget director for the state Department of Transportation, has announced a run for the 17th State Senate district. This district is currently represented by a moderate Republican in Dale Shultz. Senator Shutlz is curently getting primaried from the right by Representative Howard Marklein of Assembly District 51, which is most Democratic Assembly seat with a Republican representative at D+9. Interesting note in the article is that Marklein has
raised $116,000 compared with just $684 for Schultz.

With the 17th Senate District at D+6 and the 51st Assembly Distirct at D+9 we are possibly looking at the perfect strom for the Democrats to pick up both if Marklein defeats Shultz in the piramary.

[Gass3268]

Also is there anyway to get this moved to the state election board. I feel like it would get more attention there.

[Gass3268]

And Scott Walker, would a scandal be possible?

It would depend on how serious it gets for there to be much of an effect. Problem is that when anything fishy comes out about him, people assume its just politics and nothing substantial.

[Gass3268]

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/marquette-university-law-school-to-release-new-poll-results-b99130541z1-229724451.html

Marquette (the Gold Standard in Wisconsin) shows a narrow Walker lead over Burke, 47-45.

State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout is only down by 3% as well. The key for Burke will be for her to define herself and not the Walker campaign, as she is viewed favorable by 17% while 14% had an unfavorable view and 70% didn't have an opinion.

[Gass3268]

Looks like State Senator Kathleen Vinehout will run against Mary Burke for Wisconsin governor. Burke is not popular with many in the Labor side of the Democratic Party. Many on that side have been big supporters of Vinehout jumping out. Senator Vinehout represents Eau Claire and the area to the south along the Mississippi River.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/despite-long-odds-vinehout-sounding-as-if-shell-run-against-burke-b99152480z1-233949291.html

[Gass3268]

State Senator Dale Shultz (R-Richland Center) will not seek reelection in 2014. Shultz is the 3rd Wisconsin State Senator to leave the legislature along with Sen. Tim Cullen (D-Janesville) and Sen. Bob Jauch (D-Poplar). This is one of the few Senate seats in the state currently represented by a Republican that the Democrats having a fighting chance to take. Obama got 56.58% and Baldwin got 51.87% in 2012, yet all 3 Assembly Seats in the district remained Republican in 2012. I would probably lable this as a Toss-Up/Tilt R.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/republican-dale-schultz-wont-seek-re-election-in-senate-b99192350z1-242203711.html

While I am excited with the potential of a Dem pick up here, Dale Shultz is the only Republican in the Wisconsin State Legislature that I respect. He pushed for real bipartisan solutions on everything from Act 10, the mining bill, redistricting reform, etc. Sort of a mix bag with him leaving.

[Gass3268]

Dale Schultz, the Senator in the D+4 seat, is retiring.

That's going to be a hard one to hold. This is Southwestern Wisconsin.

Then again Republicans were able to hold all 3 Assembly seats they won in 2010 in a Dem year in 2012. This will be a close race. If Walker keeps his current margin, the Republicans will hold this seat.

[Gass3268]

Dale Schultz, the Senator in the D+4 seat, is retiring.

That's going to be a hard one to hold. This is Southwestern Wisconsin.

I agree, but I have no faith in the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.

But they won with Tammy Baldwin...

Tammy Baldwin won with Tammy Baldwin, DPW is awful.

[Gass3268]

Southwestern Wisconsin is something of a strange animal. It votes reliably for Democrats on the national level, but can swing wildly in any direction downballot. I have the impression (could be wrong) that SW Wisconsin is the type of place where walking door to door and getting to know the voters makes a huge difference since they tend to vote for the person more than the party. It strikes me as a place where personal relationships are very important. Schultz's retirement is a huge hit for the GOP in the State Senate but with the right candidate (and I have no idea who that might be) we still have a reasonably good chance of keeping the seat.

The region used to be a Republican stronghold in the state on all levels the 1990's when Democrats started starting winning here on the Federal level. In State elections Republicans can still win here. Just look at Walker's victories in 2010 and 2012. This is the region of the Obama-Walker-Walker-Obama voter. If Mary Burke is going to pull off the upset, she needs to win this region.

For the State Senate race, Representative Howard Marklein (R-Spring Green) who was running to the right of Shultz in a Republican primary will be the Republican nominee and former Budget Director for the Wisconsin DOT Ernie Wittwer. I think this will be a fun race to watch and it will be fun to map if it's close.

[Gass3268]

To those interested in who's running for 17th Senate District:

Ernie Wittwer's Campaign Website

Howard Marklein's Campaign Website

[Gass3268]

Retiring State Senators Dale Shultz (R-Richland Center) and Tim Cullen (D-Janesville) released examples of what fair Wisconsin maps would look like. The two of them have been pushing hard for Wisconsin to copy how Iowa does redistricting. The maps where made by the non-partisan Legislative Reference Bureau. Republicans would have won control of both chambers in 2010, while Democrats would have won back in 2012. Unfortunately, this has no chance of going anywhere in the legislature.

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/senate/cullen/reform-redistricting/Pages/side-by-side.aspx

[Gass3268]

A western based 7th would be great! on the other hand wtf is that 75th assembly district, splitting washburn in that way makes little sense.
But yeah its a shame it will never pass.

Yeah, I don't know why they did a east-west split rather than a north-south split in Washurn. That was one spot where I wasn't a fan of the maps. Also I think they set themselves for a lawsuit with those maps as they split up the Oneida Reservation in both the Senate and Assembly map, which is a no-no.