FL-Monmouth: TRUMP with modest lead

[Gass3268]

That's not a bad poll for Rubio.

Down 8 in your home state still isn't great.

Early vote is big for Rubio per this poll. This poll is actually really solid for him but now he has Cruz hitting him here. Why Cruz is doing that I don't not know, he has no chance in FL.

His campaign wants Rubio out to go one on one with Trump (plus Kasich I guess), even if that means letting Trump win the state.

[Gass3268]

FL being winner take all means that down 8% with only 5% undecided is not a good place to be. It's pretty brutal to be down near-double digits a week before the election in one's home state.

Especially with this factoid.

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Also it will be interesting to finally see a Republican Primary where the electorate isn't 99.9% white. Have to imagine Rubio is dominating in this poll with the 9% that's Cuban and the 5% that is Other Hispanic.

[Gass3268]

FL being winner take all means that down 8% with only 5% undecided is not a good place to be. It's pretty brutal to be down near-double digits a week before the election in one's home state.

But polls haven't been exactly accurate in the past contests. Though I'd agree, being down by 8 isn't a good sign.

If you look at the polling averages for primaries (caucuses are so hard to poll), Trump usually gets the same % on election. His problem is he gets almost zero undecided voters.

[Gass3268]

Oh, I just noticed something.  The poll includes 83 independent voters, but they can't vote in the actual primary because it's closed.  That could mean that the race is closer than Monmouth projects, assuming indies tilt toward Trump.

Would not be surprised if a decent amount of those folks call themselves independents, but are registered Republicans.