MU Wisconsin Law Poll: Clinton +2 LV +5 RV 2 Way Clinton +3LV +4RV 4 Way

[Gass3268]

What state is this, and link?

It's currently being live tweeted.

Nice to see that the bleeding here essentially stopped. Interesting that neither campaign is reacting like the state is a 2 point margin.

[Gass3268]

Clinton is really a poor candidate. If Trump can avoid a major blunder in the debates, he may just pull it off.

#ShouldhavegonewithBiden

These numbers are really no different that Obama-Romney. Everyone should have known if Trump could consolidate Republicans this would be a close state. The state is just too polarized in an even election. I just don't think there are enough folks to put him over the top.

[Gass3268]

Clinton is really a poor candidate. If Trump can avoid a major blunder in the debates, he may just pull it off.

#ShouldhavegonewithBiden

These numbers are really no different that Obama-Romney. Everyone should have known if Trump could consolidate Republicans this would be a close state. The state is just too polarized in an even election. I just don't think there are enough folks to put him over the top.

If Trump is this close in Wisconsin, he's probably doing about the same in PA and CO as well. I know the PA polling doesn't show that, but it just doesn't make sense for PA to be Clinton +8 and Wisconsin to be Clinton +2 given the 2012 results. One of these numbers is wrong and it's probably not Marquette as they're one of the top pollsters in the country. Trump is really on the verge of being the favorite.

PA and CO have a much higher % of college educated whites. That makes a big difference.

[Gass3268]

Potentially concerning, but I'll get worried about Wisconsin when (if?) a poll shows Trump ahead.

If Clinton is campaign there or both sides put adds up, then I'd get worried.

[Gass3268]

Obama's approval is +13 here.

[Gass3268]

She should send Bernie here instead of Ohio.

Unless their polling shows otherwise. Clinton hasn't been in WI since April, I have to imagine that's intentional.

Agree that Bernie would be good here (same with Obama).

[Gass3268]

Trump won't win Wisconsin. Outside of the WoW area, he's an absolute horrible fit for the state.

The GB area is heavily Catholic and adverse to anti-immigrant rhetoric.
The MKE area has heavy minority populations that will swing hard against him.
He's absolutely hated in Dane County.
The MN twin cities exurbs of the northeast are likely to reject him as well.

His best areas will be the WoW counties and, possibly, parts of the central northern areas of the state. Undecideds will break heavily against him, and Feingold is actually doing the work of energizing turnout because people want him back in the seat he shouldn't have lost.

What's your thought on final margin?

If things pan out as we're expecting, the margin will be somewhere between 2012 and 2008, about Clinton +9 with some GB area and MN exurb counties flipping.

Trump is up 8% in the Green Bay/Appelton media market and he has been for at least the last 3 polls.