2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac:

Would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democratic Party 52
Republican Party 37

Would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?

Democratic Party 53
Republican Party 37

Source

[Gass3268]

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In other words the GOP is finito!

At this point, the Senate is more interesting.

This doesn't even include the races where Dems have strong candidates like KS-02, UT-04 and WV-03.

[Gass3268]

California Republican will be massacred next year.

Worst case scenario....how many House R seats will there be left in CA?

LaMalfa, McClintock, Cook, Nunes, McCarthy, Calvert and Hunter.

That's not their worst-case scenario.  I have McClintock's seat at Likely R and Hunter's at Lean R (closer to toss-up tilt-R than likely R).

Yeah, Hunter is dealing with some pretty substantial allegations of using campaign funds for personal expenses. Plus his district swung Democratic by almost 8 points in 2016.

[Gass3268]

Republican leaning Politico/MorningConsult gives the Democrats a 10 point lead in the generic ballot.

[Gass3268]

DDHQ/The Crosstab: Democrats chances of taking the House up to 64.6%

Predicting The Following Democratic Pick Ups:

AZ-02
CA-10
CA-21
CA-25
CA-39
CA-45
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
IA-01
IA-03
IL-06
KS-03
MI-11
MN-02
MN-03
NE-02
NJ-02
NJ-07
NM-02
NY-19
NY-24
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
PA-15
TX-23
VA-10
WA-08

Currently they are predicting zero Republican pick ups.

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac: D+17

Dem: 52
Rep: 35

Source

[Gass3268]

Sabato Crystal Ball Changes:

[Gass3268]

Sabato Crystal Ball Changes:

Most of this is catchup to cook...interesting that they have not pushed CA-39 to Lean D yeat.

My guess is a lot of those California seats won't change until after the primaries.

[Gass3268]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

WI-SD-10 proves this poll to be wrong.

[Gass3268]

I'm starting to get the feeling that the crappy pollsters are really starting to drive the meme that Democrats are in free fall. Rassy and Morning Consult both use likey voter models. One that is stupid this far out and two it is probably based on a screening process that requires the respondent to have voted in 2014, which recent elections have shown is the wrong thing to do.

[Gass3268]

Heller's fundraising numbers in Q4 where not very good:

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[Gass3268]

Hawley couldn't hit 7 figures in Q4:

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[Gass3268]

Big get for Democrats in AR-02:

[Gass3268]

Roe? boooooo BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!

TN-01 is among the most Republican-leaning seats in the country. We need more competitive seat retirements

The brain drain on the GOP side is crazy.

[Gass3268]

Bye bye Claudia

Rep. Claudia Tenney struggles to raise money for 2018 battle with Brindisi

WASHINGTON -- U.S. Rep. Claudia Tenney is struggling to raise money for her 2018 election campaign against State Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi in what is expected to be one of the most competitive House races in the nation, new disclosure reports show.

Brindisi, D-Utica, raised about $100,000 more than Tenney, R-New Hartford, in the last quarter, and now has more campaign cash than the first-term congresswoman, according to reports filed today with the Federal Election Commission in Washington.

She was previously hyped as a rising star...though I'm not sure where she would rise to in NY.

I always figured that upstate New York would always been one of the first places to snap back against Trump.

[Gass3268]

Also after the results in Missouri tonight, it might not be a bad idea to move MO-02 to at least Likely-R.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

National Democratic Redistrict Committee Targets (Holder's Group):

[Gass3268]

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Source

[Gass3268]

Cook Political Report shifts 21 seats towards the Democrats

[Gass3268]

Essentially the qualitative analysis is finally matching up with the quantitative analysis.

[Gass3268]

Yikes, not looking good for Jenkins in WV:

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[Gass3268]

What did they have WI-03 as before if this move towards the Dems now makes it "flippable"? I'm confused.

They probably moved it off of Likely or Lean D.

[Gass3268]

New Crystal Ball Ratings In PA:



New Cook Political Report Ratings In PA:

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[Gass3268]

Madeleine Dean is dropping out of the Democratic Lt. Governor Primary, running in the new PA-04 with endorsements from Ed Rendell and Michael Nutter.