early look at gerrymanders in 2020

[Gass3268]

Easy GOP gains
Shrink NH-1 away from Carroll/Belknap/Strafford and pick up Nashua suburbs and Salem

If Hogan has a say in MD, just do anything less ridiculous than that abortion of a map they have now

Slice up GA-2

Re-draw lines around Orlando, FL

Slice up TN-5

Slice up KY-3

If Rauner wins re election, eliminate the pie slices radiating out of Chicago

Crack MO-5 between 3 districts

Eliminate the Texas fajita strips, all of the Rio Grande delta can be held in 2 districts, add suburban GOP seats

They'll gain Oregon's 6th no matter what

Most of these would be either illegal or unlikely.

NH - Correct

MD - Only need 60% in MD to override a veto, Democrats are clearly over that threshold in both chambers.

GA - GA-02 is a protected VRA district, so that would be illegal.

FL - Would violate the state constitution.

TN - Correct

KY - State constitution requires whole counties, unless impossible.

IL - Correct

MO - Possible, but risky

Tx - Fajita strips are required by VRA, so illegal.

OR - Probably

[Gass3268]

Easy GOP gains
Shrink NH-1 away from Carroll/Belknap/Strafford and pick up Nashua suburbs and Salem

If Hogan has a say in MD, just do anything less ridiculous than that abortion of a map they have now

Slice up GA-2

Re-draw lines around Orlando, FL

Slice up TN-5

Slice up KY-3

If Rauner wins re election, eliminate the pie slices radiating out of Chicago

Crack MO-5 between 3 districts

Eliminate the Texas fajita strips, all of the Rio Grande delta can be held in 2 districts, add suburban GOP seats

They'll gain Oregon's 6th no matter what

Most of these would be either illegal or unlikely.

NH - Correct

MD - Only need 60% in MD to override a veto, Democrats are clearly over that threshold in both chambers.

GA - GA-02 is a protected VRA district, so that would be illegal.

FL - Would violate the state constitution.

TN - Correct

KY - State constitution requires whole counties, unless impossible.

IL - Correct

MO - Possible, but risky

Tx - Fajita strips are required by VRA, so illegal.

OR - Probably

Thank you. I'm kinda new to this and i really dont understand the state by state laws of how the VRA has to be applied exactly

So, GA-02's VRA-protected status is why it had to be bumped to Black-majority in 2012? Then, maybe slice it up next decade, and turn GA-07 into an ATL VRA seat (and crack up the more anti-Trump and D-trending suburbs b/w GA-04, 05, 07, and 13? That would make four Georgia VRA seats. Or would GA-02 still need to be VRA even in that circumstance?
I think Jefferson County, KY is already too big to be kept whole in one CD, so it needs to be split into multiple districts (already has parts of KY-04 in it). And I agree, cracking MO-05 is super risky and almost certainly would backfire.

Yeah, GA-02 will be interesting. Getting rid of it would probably open up the state to a court case. Dividing up Jefferson County other than a rump district that makes up most of the county with another coming in to get the reminder would also open the state up to a court case

Eliminate the Texas fajita strips, all of the Rio Grande delta can be held in 2 districts, add suburban GOP seats

Tx - Fajita strips are required by VRA, so illegal.

They are not compact and split communities of interest. The only explanation for them is to assign persons to electoral districts on the basis of race.

Every court ruling has mandated the fajita strips as being required by the VRA. If anything it looks like another strip or two will be added by the courts.

[Gass3268]

Also should note that Michigan and Utah could both get commissions by 2021. Would probably result in an additional Democratic seat in both.

[Gass3268]

Also in Illinois, it's much more likely the dems draw IL-6 as a dem seat,  it's pretty easy to do using 2016 numbers.

They have to be careful there. In 2011 they thought they drew IL-12 and IL-13 as Dem leaning seats, but that didn't work out as the decade unfolded. They relied too heavily on the 2008 race repeating in 2012 and incumbents holding those seats thereafter. If Trump runs in 2020, they will have to avoid putting too much weight on anti-Trump votes in 2021, otherwise they may repeat the error of counting too many pro-Obama votes that didn't carry down ballot.

True, but Duckworth did beat Kirk in DuPage.

My hope is that in 2020 is that they learn from there mistake and combine the best Democratic parts in the 12th with the best Democratic parts of the 13th and then shed the rest. Have a line that goes from East St. Louis to Springfield to Decatur with then two arms to Bloomington and Champaign. If they want to get really dirty, go ahead and add Carbondale and Alexander County and use the Mississippi as the connector.

[Gass3268]

Some other interesting seats might be KS-3, NE-2, and OK-5.

Nebraska requires whole counties and I could see the moderate Republicans in Kansas siding with the Democrats to draw a fair map again just to stick it to the righties.

[Gass3268]

Maryland dems as some on DKE have noted could actually have a more aggressive gerrymander and get rid of Harris in MD-1 as well

I would far rather have MD Dems use their leverage and offer to put an independent redistricting amendment on the ballot if VA does the same in advance of 2021.

The Maryland legislature passed a resolution that they would move to an independent redistricting system if neighboring states did so as well.

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I could see them all getting involved, except for North Carolina.

[Gass3268]

Maryland dems as some on DKE have noted could actually have a more aggressive gerrymander and get rid of Harris in MD-1 as well

I would far rather have MD Dems use their leverage and offer to put an independent redistricting amendment on the ballot if VA does the same in advance of 2021.

The Maryland legislature passed a resolution that they would move to an independent redistricting system if neighboring states did so as well.

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I could see them all getting involved, except for North Carolina.

Pennsylvania is too disproportionate in number of seats for the GOP to give up to stop Maryland IMO or even Maryland and Massachusetts.  New York already passed a weak form of commission in 2014.  It's basically the Michigan Rules because the legislature can amend the commissions plan with a simple majority as long as it adheres to certain guidelines.  On a similar note, the WA commission's maps can be edited by the legislature with a 2/3rds majority.  It's unlikely that the Democrats would have 2/3rds, but they almost had it in both chambers in 2009, so it's not impossible if 2018 or 2020 is a Dem wave.

Yeah, but it all likelihood the statewide maps are going to be drawn by Democrats next cycle. That along could bring them to to the table.

[Gass3268]

It's funny how it's only Dem or swing states that are enacting indy/bipartisan commissions for redistricting.   You really don't see any movement at all on this for Republican states.

With the exception of states out west that have initiatives. Like Arizona and maybe Utah here in the future.