Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Gass3268]

Yeah, across the board increases for McCready.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1171575565754781697?s=20

[Gass3268]

Happy with the Democratic result in Dare County. I wonder if that's a county that could flip or at least get closer moving forward.

[Gass3268]

Another bump for McCready.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1171576948755185667?s=20

[Gass3268]

Union starting to come in, not much improvement for Bishop.

[Gass3268]

You have to remember Bishop represents that portion of Mecklenburg.  If there's one part of the district he's going to overperform Harris in, it'd be there.

And now it's pretty much down to Mecklenburg to determine the race.

He represents almost the entire portion that's in Mecklenburg.

[Gass3268]

Robinson's starting their drop.

Robeson is also very segregated by precinct.

[Gass3268]

4 more came in from Union, stayed pretty even in the county.

[Gass3268]

Whats left:

10 precincts from Union
1 from Anson
2 from Richmond
9 from Cumberland
6 from Blanden
24 from Robeson


43 from Mecklenburg. Its all coming down to meckenburg.

Who do you think net gains from the non-meck, non-union vote?

Its mostly a wash, discounting Robinson. And Robinson is very segregrated so who knows whats out, but its probably more dem since some gop precincts dropped  last time.

Robeson not looking great for McCready.

[Gass3268]

McCready might lose Robeson at this rate.

[Gass3268]

If Dems can come anywhere near this close in the Presidential race in NC-09 next year, they’ll win the state easily, right?

Correct

[Gass3268]

If the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop at only the same rate as the other eastern counties, McCready probably wins.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1171765093044039682?s=20

[Gass3268]

If the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop at only the same rate as the other eastern counties, McCready probably wins.

Not sure the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop as much as they just did not turn out for McCready. Bishop's raw vote total in Robeson was barely short of Harris' whereas McCready's plunged.

This is a good point. I saw an article how there was a member of the Tribe that ran for the state legislature in 2018 as a Democrat that greatly boosted the turnout there and they went along with McCready. I imagine a lot of those folks didn't show up yesterday.