Would Mississippi have gone to Obama?

[Bo]

Obama would have needed to become white and conservative in order to win the state.

[Bo]

Oh come on that's one of the last states that would go for the democrats.

It went for Carter in 1976 and would have likely went to him again in 1980 had it not been for the hostage crisis and poor economy.

[Bo]

Now you have to go back to 1956 to find a democrat who won that state and that was a segregationist. Being a segregationist is hardly in the democrat platform today.

Nor was it in 1956, and Adlai Stevenson was not a segregationist.

The last Democrat who won MS and was an active segregationist was John Davis, in 1924.

[Bo]

First, look at this:




Then, look at the fact that non-blacks constitute 63% of Mississippi's population.

Therefore, Obama never stood a chance of winning the state.

So if 100% of the black population (37% of total population) votes for Obama, then only 13% of the white population has to vote for Obama.  It's that far out of the question. 

Wrong. Since whites are about 60% of Mississippi's population (about 3% is other), then 13/60 is about 22% and that is the percent of the white vote that Obama will need to win MS if he wins 100% of the black vote. That is assuming there is equal turnout between whites and blacks proportional to their total population.

[Bo]

Color didn't matter, unless you want to flip it around and notice that over 95% of blacks voted for Obama. You can't tell me that was just because of his track record as a U.S. Senator.

Nearly the same percentage of blacks voted for Kerry. And Gore. And Clinton, etc. etc. You can't tell me it had to do with the color of their skin.

Obama didn't change the Democratic share of black votes much from the usual 90+% share Democrats have received for decades. He switched a handful of Black Republicans (of which there was a tiny pool to begin with) like Colin Powell and that's about it.

Most blacks voted for Obama in the primaries due to his race, but not in the GE.