Vosem
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Posts: 15,641
Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09
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« on: January 28, 2017, 03:33:22 PM » |
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« edited: January 28, 2017, 03:40:13 PM by Vosem »
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I repeat my prediction, which I've detailed elsewhere, that 2018 will simultaneously produce the largest Republican Senate majority since the 1920s and the return of Speaker Pelosi. The exact numbers are so fuzzy at this point that predicting them is basically pointless, though I think the median possible Senate is 56-44 (R+4).
R gains: MT, ND, MO, IN, OH, WV
D gains: AZ, NV
There's several seats that could also go Republican if the ball is dropped in one of those states (FL or WI will probably have strong candidates), and I think that, while the odds are less than 50%, the odds of a Scott Brown-style event where Democrats pick up a seat they really shouldn't have in some special election somewhere are quite real. I also think, while Ted Cruz is favored for reelection, TX is a very real Democratic 2018 target.
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