VA: Public Policy Polling: Obama leads all Republicans

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While PPP's methodology, and early polling, more generally, are hardly anything for Obama to shake his pom-poms about, I do think that the GOP should take this and an earlier Ohio PPP poll seriously.  I've never believed that Colorado was very winnable for Obama, but I've always thought that Ohio and Virginia could be the two sore spots that cost Republicans the election.  That goes contrary to the so-called wisdom of the so-called experts, but the GOP will lose the election if they believe that Ohio and Virginia are the easy-wins and then they go about conceding Colorado while trying to pick up the unwinnable pipedream that is Pennsylvania.

Colorado goes GOP, Ohio does not, if the election is today.  And that is, of course, very worrisome for Republicans like me, even though I'm a Colorado Republican.

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Colorado goes GOP, Ohio does not, if the election is today.  And that is, of course, very worrisome for Republicans like me, even though I'm a Colorado Republican.

Why do you say Colorado goes GOP?  Most of the polling has been rather in favor of Obama there, no?  On the whole the polls seem to put Ohio more GOP leaning than Colorado, if I remember correctly.


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A new poll from a very good non-partisan local pollster has Obama's approval numbers at 39% in Colorado.

http://fciruli.blogspot.com/2011/12/obama-approval-39.html

PPP's poll, which tilted a little to the left, had him at 45%, and had him up by 2 points.  PPP had Obama up in Ohio by, I believe, 9 points.  The only sample we have of Colorado is three PPP polls, all of which polled more Democrats than Republicans in a state where Republicans have a 5-point lead in active voter registration.  Unless Team Obama goes bananas in Colorado, he won't win the state.

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Colorado goes GOP, Ohio does not, if the election is today.  And that is, of course, very worrisome for Republicans like me, even though I'm a Colorado Republican.

Why do you say Colorado goes GOP?  Most of the polling has been rather in favor of Obama there, no?  On the whole the polls seem to put Ohio more GOP leaning than Colorado, if I remember correctly.

A new poll from a very good non-partisan local pollster has Obama's approval numbers at 39% in Colorado.

http://fciruli.blogspot.com/2011/12/obama-approval-39.html

PPP's poll, which tilted a little to the left, had him at 45%, and had him up by 2 points.  PPP had Obama up in Ohio by, I believe, 9 points.  The only sample we have of Colorado is three PPP polls, all of which polled more Democrats than Republicans in a state where Republicans have a 5-point lead in active voter registration.  Unless Team Obama goes bananas in Colorado, he won't win the state.

A blog spot is not a poll. If PPP is overpolling Colorado Democrats, then that may reflect that Colorado is still hemorrhaging support for Republicans. Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia probably still have big positive gaps in favor of Democrats. President Obama is a poor match for those states and he will lose them in 2012.

Colorado is quite possibly the opposite. The state is fairly liberal in its social attitudes and its rapidly-growing Hispanic contingent of its electorate makes the state a potential disaster for Republicans in 2012.   
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Ciruli Associates is not a "blog spot," it's a highly reputable Colorado pollster. 

And, no, the GOP has actually gained in registration since Obama took office.  As I mentioned, Republicans currently hold a 5-point active registration advantage over Democrats (and a much larger margin over unaffiliated voters).  So PPP's poll simply over-samples Democrats.  That's fine, I suppose.  But you just have to consider that when analyzing the PPP polls out of Colorado.  And if you take a Democrat-leaning poll that has Obama up only 2 and another poll with his approval numbers at only 39% in Colorado, you have a big Obama loss in Colorado.