CO-PPP: Obama leads by 3% (user search)
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  CO-PPP: Obama leads by 3% (search mode)
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Author Topic: CO-PPP: Obama leads by 3%  (Read 3174 times)
backtored
Jr. Member
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Posts: 498
Vatican City State


« on: October 18, 2012, 03:37:19 PM »

It's a D +3 sample.  That doesn't even pass the laugh test.  The National Journal story was probably legit--if you can only must a three-point lead when you oversample Democrats by six points, then you're probably in real trouble.

With PPP, you have to peel beneath the numbers to get the real story.
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backtored
Jr. Member
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Posts: 498
Vatican City State


« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2012, 03:40:17 PM »

YouGov, Grove, PPP all have CO at +3 for the President.  Probably about right.  

An Internet poll and two Democratic polls walk into a bar...

And almost everybody else has Romney winning.
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backtored
Jr. Member
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Posts: 498
Vatican City State


« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2012, 03:44:55 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2012, 03:48:37 PM by backtored »

Once again Republicans prove they don't understand party ID.........

Every other pollster has pegged it at R +1, which itself is a rather D-friendly number for Colorado.  Even putting actual party registration aside, there is no way that any exit poll will ever show more Democrats showing up than Republicans.  A D +3 number borders on farsical.

PPP has consistently been considerably to the left of virtually every other pollster in Colorado polling.  Maybe that's because they're so right and everybody else is so wrong.  Maybe.  But you can't deny the fact that PPP is standing out on a (left) limb here.  When party registration has trended Republican, Gallup party ID has trended Republican, and the general electoral climate is much better for Republican today than it was in 2008, Colorado would have had to undergone dramatic changes to have become four-points more Democratic today than four years ago.  Moreover, Romney's numbers have consistently been warmer here than in most other swing states.  PPP is an anomaly.  That's undeniable.  You might think they're onto something that nobody else is, but this is an absolute outlier.
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