NY-20 Special Election

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Tedisco is highly likely to be elected.

Not likely to be close.

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Tedisco is working hard to lose, but make get elected anyway.

His position on H.R. 1 reminds me of Kerry's "I was for it before I was against it" line.

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ALBANY, N.Y. - Scott Murphy, the Democrat running for Congress in New York, says he opposes the death penalty, even for terrorists.

Speaking on Talk 1300-AM, WGDJ, Murphy tells host Fred Dicker he opposes the death penalty in all cases, including for the Sept. 11 terrorists who attacked the World Trade Center and Washington, D.C.

Murphy says the evidence may not be conclusive in many cases and guilt can't be guaranteed. He says the cost of making a mistake in a death penalty case is too high.

A spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee calls Murphy's comments "dangerously naive and appalling."

Jim Tedisco, the Republican candidate in the March 31 special election in the 20th Congressional District, supports the death penalty.

"Scott respects that people have deeply held beliefs about the death penalty," Murphy's spokesman, Ryan Rudominer, said in a prepared statement Friday. "He is against it. Scott was in New York City on 9-11, and understands the horrors of that day. Scott believes we need to round up the terrorists and lock them up for life and throw away the key."

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newyork/ny-bc-ny--nyhouse20-deathpe0320mar20,0,7034270.story

Great ! My support for Murphy has just increased by 500%.

Republicans are giving sighs of relief.

Tedisco has been doing the foot in the mouth routine a lot here lately, now Murphy decides to join him.

I guess the race is to find out which of the candidates is even worse than the other.

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!!

Either they got some pretty grotesque sig validity requirements, or the Libertarian Party's sig collectors are a lot more lazy than their party's program (intellectually). Which is not an easy feat in itself.

Probably both.

New York state has some really bizarre interpretations of ballot regulations to keep candidates off the ballot.

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Nate Silver says Steele is toast if the GOP loses this. And considering that Nate Silver is the single best political analyst of all time...

First, this was Tedisco's to lose (not Steele's) and he may well lose it. 

Second, when Steele ran his out of control mouth about being Presidential material, he probably laid out his political coffin.

Third, inasmuch as this is a special election, and the registration favors the Republicans, Tedisco still might be elected (despite himself).

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Murphy's campaign peaked out about a week ago, while Tedisco has belatedly gotten his act together (somewhat).

Prediction:

Tedisco           52%
Murphy           48

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All in but the absentees, recount and lawsuits:

Murphy 77,344   (50.02%)
Tedesco 77,279 (49.98%)

Murphy +65

Yes, that must be it for now. Hopefully the absentee ballots will favor Murphy, but it's not a done deal.

There can't be more than 200 overseas military voters ...

Why are the absentees expected to favor Murphy?

They are assuming they are military ballots, which typically lean heavily Republican.

200 military ballots- that would mean that Tedesco would need to win by a margin of about 66-33. That's a tall order- even from the military. I am guessing it will be more like a 40 vote gain for Tedesco....making him 20 votes short..

Sorry Weasel, but,

To his credit, Lunar correctly noted that 5,907 absentee votes have already been received, and a few more (primarily military) should be added.

So, approximately 6,000 absentee votes yet to be counted.

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Does anyone know the breakdown between precinct and absentee voters in 2008 in the 20th Congressional District for President?

That should give us an approximation of the breakout of the absentee vote.

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Let's look at the remaining ballots outstanding:

First, Alcon notes that provisional ballots have yet to be counted.  However, the percentage of provisional ballots is significantly less in special elections than in general elections, and signficantly less in suburban/rural areas than in major metropolitan areas.  Generally provisional ballots tend to favor the Democrat, but I doubt they are numerous in this case.

Second, generally speaking the lower the percentage of the total vote that are absentee ballots, the better the results for the Republican candidate.  In this case, absentee ballots are likely to account for about five per cent of the total vote.

Third, military absentee ballots can come in even latter than other absentee ballots (and still be valid).  For the past generation such ballots have historically generally favored the Republican candidate.

Given the closeness of the polling place vote, this bodes ill for Murphy and the Democrats.

However, Murphy and the Democrats should count their blessings that Tedisco and the Republicans ran such an inept campaign.

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what will RowanBrandon say if the Democrat wins here, considering Murphy was ahead on election night?

Was it still rigged?

This isn't a recount. These are votes still needing to be counted. If Murphy's up when these ballots are counted than so be it.

Now you're contradicting yourself.

You were complaining that Coleman's lead went down from 700 to 200 or something like that between election night and the begin of the recount, implying that such changes were not normal.

Now what if Tedisco jumps into the lead before the count is over? How is that different?

UH OH, Murphy's lead has shrunk since election day from 65 to 25.  Someone must have STOLEN THE ELECTION

And now from 25 to 13. I think it'll end up going to Tedisco

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That's impossible. Murphy was leading on election night!! Even though the margin is 13 votes, Tedisco needs to concede....that would be the honorable thing to do! After all, the tally on election night is always final and can never be wrong!

Uh, has Lunar loaned you his crack pipe?