US House Redistricting: Maryland

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's the full beauty of my gerrymander.  Pardon my attention whoring, but I'm quite proud of district 5:

A while back, I came up with this, with three black-majority districts and four McCain districts:

CD-1 (Blue): 52-46 McCain
CD-2 (Green): 57% Black, 83% Obama
CD-3 (Purple): 52-47 McCain
CD-4 (Red): 54% White, 75% Obama
CD-5 (Yellow): 54-44 McCain
CD-6 (Teal): 55% Black, 80% Obama
CD-7 (Gray): 54-44 McCain
CD-8 (Light Purple): 52% Black, 83% Obama

Here's a zoomed in view of the beltway.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

What happens if District of Columbia residents vote in Maryland elections like they have in the past, and Maryland (+DC) is apportioned a 9th representative?

They get a third black-majority district based in DC and everything else pretty much stays the same.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

With the Democrats controlling things, a 5-3 map is unacceptable. My map throws such nice things as "minimizing county splits" out the window to try to preserve a 6-2 delegation, with a shot a 7-1.




MD-1 (Blue) 50.9% McCain, 50.4% Republican Average
MD-2 (Green) 54.3% Obama, 60.1% Democratic Average
MD-3 (Purple) 76.5% Obama, 76.5% Democratic Average, 54.0% VAP Black
MD-4 (Red) 84.4% Obama, 83.2% Democratic Average, 52.1% VAP Black
MD-5 (Yellow) 73.0% Obama, 73.9% Democratic Average, 51.7% VAP Black
MD-6 (Teal) 61.7% McCain, 61.5% Republican Average
MD-7 (Gray) 59.7% Obama, 59.0% Democratic Average
MD-8 (Lavender) 68.2% Obama, 69.3% Democratic Average

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I assumed that the Dems wouldn't even consider a map with three Black-majority districts, and since it wouldn't be required I took a neutral approach.

I realize that. I was simply showing what the Democrats might do if three Black-majority districts were required. It was basically an intellectual exercise of "can a map with three Black-majority districts preserve a 6-2 Democratic majority?"

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

On principle, I agree. However, my map was intended to be an intellectual excercise on what a Democratic gerrymander would look like with a requirement of three black-majority districts. It was in no way intended to be a serious proposal, a prediction of what will be done, or an argument as to what should be done.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

On principle, I agree. However, my map was intended to be an intellectual excercise on what a Democratic gerrymander would look like with a requirement of three black-majority districts. It was in no way intended to be a serious proposal, a prediction of what will be done, or an argument as to what should be done.

The useless organization known as the Maryland GOP has proposed a map that appears to have 3 black districts.

http://mdgop.org/mdgop-releases-new-congressional-lines/

Not bad, but that 2nd district seems unnecessarily erose. Why not take northern Baltimore County instead of going into Howard?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

You probably have to split Howard County again if you do that. So, either way, one of Howard County and Baltimore County gets an extra split.

You could split Carroll County instead, drawing MD-6 into northwestern Howard County, and end up with something a lot less ugly.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

It's obvious that the jump across the Chesapeake is not considered taboo. But, from a community of interest standpoint, what is the rationale for including a chunk of Anne Arundel County, as opposed to some of Baltimore County, with the Eastern Shore? Surely the case can be made that once Harford County is placed in the district, some of Baltimore County can be included as well?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Maybe the Pubs should send a telegram to the MD Dems, that if they kill off a Pubbie in MD, Cooper in TN is finished. An semi-erose go for the kill map will be passed in TN. Just a thought. And I just drew one (not yet posted; my prior map was more "gentlemanly." I'm serious. I feel a bit bad. Cooper is a throughly decent man. I feel unclean. But the MD Dems are being a bit piggish. It's time to retaliate.

After the Ohio monstrosity, I'd accept nothing less than the following as a Maryland Democrat.

Why fight over getting rid of Bartlett or Harris when you can do both? A lot of thin connections here, but the current map has those as well.



MD-01 - 49.6 McCain, 48.7 Obama. Good fit for Kratovil.
MD-02 - 57.2 Obama, 40.8 McCain.
MD-03 - 58.8 Obama, 39.0 McCain.
MD-04 - 80.8 Obama, 18.3 McCain, 54.2% black VAP.
MD-05 - 65.3 Obama, 33.5 McCain.
MD-06 - 54.8 Obama, 43.5 McCain. Maybe not safe, but Republicans are so weak in Montgomery County that it would be pretty close to safe.
MD-07 - 65.5 Obama, 32.8 McCain, 50.8% black VAP. The trick is to put the uber-Republican northern suburbs of Baltimore here, I think.
MD-08 - 63.1 Obama, 35.3 McCain.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The idea that Dems are to blame for Republicans going for maximal advantage, or that Republicans interested in gerrymandering would hold off if they could work out an agreement with Dems in another state, is very hard to take seriously.

The IL Dem map didn't invent gerrymandering in this cycle, much less in this decade. State parties that want to play hardball and have the discipline and motivation to do so, are doing so. That's all there is to it.

Yes, I know.  But, well, I made my little point. I feel better now.  

So we just will go with creating one disgusting map after another after another after another.

Since JohnnyLongtorso proved that an 8-0 map is possible, I would counter with this offer: If the Republicans in Tennessee leave Cooper alone, the Maryland Democrats will settle for only getting rid of Bartlett instead of both Bartlett and Harris. The Tennessee Republicans can't touch the Memphis district.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The idea that Dems are to blame for Republicans going for maximal advantage, or that Republicans interested in gerrymandering would hold off if they could work out an agreement with Dems in another state, is very hard to take seriously.

The IL Dem map didn't invent gerrymandering in this cycle, much less in this decade. State parties that want to play hardball and have the discipline and motivation to do so, are doing so. That's all there is to it.

Yes, I know.  But, well, I made my little point. I feel better now.  

So we just will go with creating one disgusting map after another after another after another.

Since JohnnyLongtorso proved that an 8-0 map is possible, I would counter with this offer: If the Republicans in Tennessee leave Cooper alone, the Maryland Democrats will settle for only getting rid of Bartlett instead of both Bartlett and Harris. The Tennessee Republicans can't touch the Memphis district.

I think the MD Dems were less concerned about some measure of self restraint, and more concerned that an 8-0 map was either at risk of devolving into a dummymander, and/or too inconvenient for the existing incumbents to live with.  Just a guess on my part I know. So ... no deal.

After what went down in Ohio, North Carolina, and Michigan, I see no reason why Maryland Democrats shouldn't take that chance. Dems have very little to lose at this point.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Maybe the Pubs should send a telegram to the MD Dems, that if they kill off a Pubbie in MD, Cooper in TN is finished. An semi-erose go for the kill map will be passed in TN. Just a thought. And I just drew one (not yet posted; my prior map was more "gentlemanly." I'm serious. I feel a bit bad. Cooper is a throughly decent man. I feel unclean. But the MD Dems are being a bit piggish. It's time to retaliate.

After the Ohio monstrosity, I'd accept nothing less than the following as a Maryland Democrat.

Why fight over getting rid of Bartlett or Harris when you can do both? A lot of thin connections here, but the current map has those as well.



MD-01 - 49.6 McCain, 48.7 Obama. Good fit for Kratovil.
MD-02 - 57.2 Obama, 40.8 McCain.
MD-03 - 58.8 Obama, 39.0 McCain.
MD-04 - 80.8 Obama, 18.3 McCain, 54.2% black VAP.
MD-05 - 65.3 Obama, 33.5 McCain.
MD-06 - 54.8 Obama, 43.5 McCain. Maybe not safe, but Republicans are so weak in Montgomery County that it would be pretty close to safe.
MD-07 - 65.5 Obama, 32.8 McCain, 50.8% black VAP. The trick is to put the uber-Republican northern suburbs of Baltimore here, I think.
MD-08 - 63.1 Obama, 35.3 McCain.

The difference is that we earned our 13-5 majority in Ohio at the ballot box, and their new map eliminates one Democrat and one Republican.  Sounds fair to me.

You sure as hell didn't earn your likely-soon-to-be 10-3 majority in North Carolina at the ballot box. And don't give me any crap about how the current NC map is gerrymandered- so is the current Ohio map.

And that bit about Ohio's new map eliminating one Democrat and one Republican is bullsh*t. You know full well that the only reason a Republican was eliminated was to completely do away with any chance whatsoever of a Democrat taking the suburban Columbus seats.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

Pussies. Republicans would've gone straight for the throat.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

They chickened.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/proposed-md-congressional-map-could-imperil-rep-roscoe-bartlett/2011/10/03/gIQAY7FKJL_blog.html

Even that 6th district doesn't look super heavily Democratic. Probably enough to flip it though.

I'd estimate that at 55-56% Obama... more than enough to flip it.

Not surprising, another disgusting Maryland gerrymander.

Absolutely no reason to rip up Carroll County.

I drew a much nicer looking 7-1 map. Believe it's in this thread. I think there is something wrong with Maryland Democrats when it comes to redistricting. They just can't help going crazy. And it's more like a 6-1-1 map anyways. Hilarious.

They're like Ohio Republicans. They don't need to draw a disgusting-looking map to achieve their goals, but they do it anyway because they can. It's just a little extra " F*** you" to the other side.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Dude is also so old now his age rounds to 90.

In the House, only Ralph Hall of Texas is older.