New Zealand Election 2017

[Polkergeist]

1.03M election day votes counted

(advance vs election day)

National (45.5% vs 46.9%)

Labour (36.7% vs 34.7%)

NZF (7.1% vs 7.8%)

Greens (6.2% vs 5.5%)

[Polkergeist]

By "landslide" I mean the fact that 2 weeks ago it looked like Labour was pulling ahead by as much as 5%.

Now they are down by 11% with 90% of the votes counted ...

Well yes by that definition, you are definitely right.

However when the economy is good generally change in leader is a bit of a sugar hit in the polls which fizzles out. See Schulz in Germany.

Ardern might have been able to hold on because the election was only 7 weeks away when she was elected leader, but it was not to be.

[Polkergeist]

I wouldn't think tonight was a defeat for Labour. They may not form the next Government, but they have returned to the prime position on the centre-left. Before the change of leader that was in doubt.

[Polkergeist]

1.13M election day votes counted

(advance vs election day)

National (45.5% vs 46.6%)

Labour (36.7% vs 34.9%)

NZF (7.1% vs 7.9%)

Greens (6.2% vs 5.5%)

[Polkergeist]

I wouldn't think tonight was a defeat for Labour. They may not form the next Government, but they have returned to the prime position on the centre-left. Before the change of leader that was in doubt.

Oh it certainly isn't a defeat. Their vote is up by 10%, and they've gained quite a few seats (13 seats to be exact).

I would easily take Winston in coalition if it meant that English was knocked out of government

"

The traditional centre-left parties in "the west" are made up of the of a voting coalition of the middle class social liberals and working class populists. In NZ those are represented by Greens and NZF.

Up until 7 weeks ago Labour had lost voters on a medium term basis to both Greens and NZF, they were losing the component parts of their voting coalition. Tonight many of these people came back to Labour.

Also its only Labour that can lead a coalition with both NZF and the Greens, however difficult it might be.

There is no way the Greens could be in a NZF led Government or vice versa.

[Polkergeist]

Yeah, what happened to turnout ?

It was 78% in 2014 and now stands at 67% - with 99% counted.

Are there some additional votes counted later (those who registered to vote on election day) ?

But nonetheless, it seems turnout won't hit 70% ...

This the best sum I can do. I am willing to be corrected here

Votes counted at 11:40pm NZST: 2,151,966
Advance votes not counted tonight*: 238,695
Votes from overseas**: 40,000

Estimated final no of votes: 2,430,661

Voters on roll: 3,252,269

Estimated turnout: 74.5%

* Advance votes cast (1,240,740)  less advance votes counted (1,002,045)
** Number of overseas votes in 2014

[Polkergeist]

Actually I am pretty sure there are special votes cast on election day in NZ that need to be included in the above.

[Polkergeist]

What are the chances that the uncounted special votes could move one seat one way or the other? How close is National to a 59th seat or of falling back to 57 if the special votes skew one way or the other?

I think that it's more likely that the Nats go back one.

In the past overseas votes have taken a seat off National given it to either Labour or the Greens

[Polkergeist]

Has there been any estimate Of how many New Zealanders split the vote between their constituency vote on their list boat in other words how many people or how many riding select a different party at the constituency level than they vote for at the national list level

Elections New Zealand does a report on "Split votes" but it is only available at the return of writs.

In 2014 31.6% of voters voted for different party for their electorate vote than their party vote.

They have breakdowns by party vote as well.

http://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/elect-splitvote-summary.html

In terms of the seats or ridings where the party that won the largest number of party votes was different to the party than won the electorate vote, I have listed them below as at the current count

(Electorate winner/Party Vote Winner)

ACT/National
Epsom

National/Labour
Maungakiekie
Nelson

Labour/National
Mt Roskill
Napier
New Lynn
Ōhāriu
Palmerston North
Port Hills
Te Atatū
West Coast-Tasman
Wigram

[Polkergeist]

Here is the turnout calculation directly from the electoral commission.

The preliminary results are based on the 2,179,668 votes counted on election night, which includes 9,866 party informals (votes where the voter’s intention wasn’t clear).

Special declaration votes still to be counted are estimated at 384,072 (15% of total votes). This includes an estimated 61,375 overseas and dictation votes.

The total estimated votes (those counted on election night plus estimated special votes to be counted) is 2,563,740.

Voter turnout for the 2017 General Election is estimated to be 78.8% of those enrolled as at 6pm Friday 22 September.  This compares with a final 77.9% turnout of those enrolled in 2014.

Source: http://www.elections.org.nz/news-media/preliminary-results-2017-general-election

That was not much of a rise in turnout.

And another thing. National did benefit from the collapse of the Conservative Party vote. Most of the CP vote would have gone to National and a few percentage points of the National vote went to Labour.

It seems to have not been mentioned given the Conservative Party organisation collapsed a few years ago and has vanished from the radar since then.

So National's results are a bit less impressive than it seems...or their 2014 vote understated their position... take your pick.

[Polkergeist]

If Winston goes with Labour, will it spur renewed anti-MMP sentiment and calls for reform on the political right in NZ?

[Polkergeist]

I think that given the voting system went through a referendum less than a decade ago, any push for MMP to be repealed will run out of steam. That being said, the argument that a minority party choosing the Government will probably rankle many.

However there are ways to reform MMP to front load the coalition formation process, so that voters can choose between at least two possible coalitions at the election. Here is how it could be done.

Multiple parties can register as coalitions
On the ballot paper the coalition parties will be listed together has consecutive party lines. Voters can choose any one of the individual parties.

For the purposes of allocating seats the Coalition will be treated a one party with the sum of the constituent party votes.

Allocating seats within Coalitions will be done by the current Sainte Lague process as is currently used taking into account all party votes won.

Only use party votes above the threshold
Only votes above the 5% threshold will be used in the Sainte Lague process. For example, if a party or coalition wins 300,000 party votes and the 5% threshold equates to 200,000 votes, then that party/coalition will only have the difference, 100,000 votes, in the Sainte Lague process.

Parties that win constituency seats but are below the 5% threshold would have 0 votes in the Sainte Lague process.


Abolish overhangs
The Sainte Lague process will commence for each party/coalition at the number of constituency seats won, like in Scotland.


In short this system would encourage minor parties to join coalitions to gain more seats for a given share of the vote.

Major parties would be encouraged to form coalitions with minor parties to build the coalition with the largest support.

Voters would be given a fully informed choice between two potential governing coalitions and they would be able to influence the balance within their coalition of choice.

Edit: Better description of threshold issue