Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[Polkergeist]

If PH comes into power and fixes the gerrymandering then there is only one way out for BN to survive on the long run in future elections:  A BN-PAS alliance.

A BN-PAS Alliance is the go-to plan for a hung parliament.

Sure.  I was more talking about a pre-election alliance between BN and PAS if PH wins a majority and "fixes" a lot of the malapportionment in seats.

Of course. They may have to hook up much earlier to save Najib's PMship.

[Polkergeist]

Mahathir has given a press conference claiming PH has crossed 112 seat threshold

https://twitter.com/sroughne/status/994236486655488001

[Polkergeist]

PH gains in Johor in unofficial returns are looking good.

Seats Leading
PH 15
BN 8
Not yet reporting 3

All non-reporting seats have BN incumbents

[Polkergeist]

Based on the unofficial leaders on both myundi websites linked earlier in the thread I get the following;

BN   67   (-32)
PH   77   (+28)
GS   8   (0)
OTH   8   (+4)


62 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

[Polkergeist]

Based on the unofficial leaders on both myundi websites linked earlier in the thread I get the following;

BN   69   (-36)
PH   89   (+32)
GS   10   (+1)
OTH   8   (+3)


46 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

It looks like at the very least PH can form a government without PAS.

[Polkergeist]

Jaichind,

Thank you for all your posts. They were really informative and I appreciated the effort you put in.

[Polkergeist]

A few more defections in the states.

Two BN assemblymen defect to PH in Perak, giving PH a Parliamentary majority and State Government.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/pakatan-takes-perak-bn-defections-054548641.html


Three BN reps jump ship to PH in Johor, giving PH a 2/3rds majority in the State Parliament

http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2018/05/12/three-bn-reps-jump-ship-ph-johor

[Polkergeist]

A faction of UNMO is opposed to this sort of alliance and are defecting from UNMO.     

Are they defecting straight to PH or starting their own party?

[Polkergeist]

Thanks Jaichind.

How are DAP relations with Mahathir?

Despite being mortal enemies in the past, scenario 5 in your post has DAP siding with Mahathir against PKR ?!?

I know it might just be case of whatever side PAS is on, DAP will be on the other. But still DAP choosing Mahathir over Anwar?

[Polkergeist]

Now electoral reform is on the table.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2018/08/29/reform-committee-mulls-scrapping-ec-first-past-the-post-system/

Jachind, how likely is it that Malaysia may move to PR?

[Polkergeist]

Well so much for the "plots" to keep Anwar out of Parliament.

The Mahathir-Anwar dance reaches the next phase...