John Thune

[milhouse24]

Thune will definitely run in 2012, just so he can be considered as a VP candidate or set up the groundwork for a 2016 run.  He needs the national exposure because he sure won't get it from his small state market. 

The VP spot on the ticket is his to lose in my opinion.

[milhouse24]

Thune will definitely run in 2012, just so he can be considered as a VP candidate or set up the groundwork for a 2016 run.  He needs the national exposure because he sure won't get it from his small state market. 

The VP spot on the ticket is his to lose in my opinion.

If Thune is interested, I think he has a shot at the very top of the GOP ticket in 2012...it's much more risky for him to pass on 2012, because if Obama loses, means Thune doesn't get another chance until '20 or '24

We should know by April of this year if Thune is going to make his move

It would be tricky to get the nomination as a Senator becuase he has all the HC/Wall Street Bailout issues.  But he should NOT skip 2012, even if he is not on the ticket, it would set him up for 2016. 

As for Palin, Gingrich, and Santorum, they are all out of elective politics and can be called out-of-touch.  Santorum does have a good chance though, better than Palin and Newt.

[milhouse24]

Is it just me, or does anyone else think that this guy will be a factor in the 2012 race? He's a mainstream conservative, young, tall, handsome, and he plays some good basketball. So, in that case, Thune is basically the Republican version of Barack Obama. He's also a giant killer, defeating Tom Daschle, The former Democratic Senate leader, in 2004. If he ran, he would probably occupy the "mainstream conservative insurgent" niche,which is similar to the role that Romney and Thomspon played, or tried to play, in 2008. What do you all think?

I think Thune has a Derek Zoolander problem - "he's really, really good-looking" and while he's competent and a good speaker, and I might get more comfortable with him, but he seems too cookie-cutter and "perfect" to be taken seriously.

Maybe that is what average americans want, a "cardboard movie star" but Thune will really need to bring the charisma and gravitas to win the Nomination.  People might not take him seriously, even though he does have the substance.  People will take Romney seriously on business issues, but Romney is untrustworthy on anything else. 

If Thune can look a bit older, he can overtake romney.  I think he is a darkhorse stealth candidate that could surprise the GOP, just like Obama did with the DEms.

[milhouse24]

I hope not. Thune is a generic neocon Bush-clone.

That may be true, but Bush did win 2 terms, so some part of the country finds that appealing. 

McCain was sort of a moving target, his supposed base of voters had no idea what he was for or wanted to do, highly unpredictable.  Most independents were against the Iraq War, so McCain lost that vote too.

[milhouse24]

Has Iran taken over Iraq, I haven't been following the news.  I knew eventually this would happen, but I thought iraq stabilized.  The important question is, do we still control the iraqi oil fields?  How would a bigger Iran effect the middle east?  Would there be more infighting or would they become super power?

either one of those is highly highly unlikely.  Iran now owns Iraq, and nothing in Afghanistan has ever been "graceful"

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3. Economy with stable growth, much in contrast to 2008.

He would have solved most of the problems that got him elected in the first place.

this is really Obama's best and only shot at reelection...but it is certainly not a given...at best, there is only 50/50 chance unemployment will be <7% by Nov 2012...but it might not be enough to offset failures abroad and perpetual $1T annual deficits and much higher taxes.

Fair or unfair, there are many more things out of Obama's control than there are things in his control, that can cause him to lose reelection.

[milhouse24]

But the more important question is who owns the Iraqi Oil Fields - thats what we wanted all along.  Just put troops there, who cares about the rest of the country. 

As for stopping terrorism, we just tell Israel to let the UN run Jeruselum and create a govt for Palestinians.  That would ease muslim terrorists.

The thing with Thune, is he a big enough "Name" to get voters.  Obama is so electric in his rallies that he is a dragon slayer of Hillary and McCain.  Even if things are bad, I would say Obama has a teflon persona like GWB. 

I think Obama could still win a close race, he might lose a few states, but I don't know if Thune, Romney or Palin can cross the 50% threshold yet.