The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[milhouse24]

I'm surprised Thune is in 3rd place.  Newt won't run no matter what anyone thinks, he has too many personal issues and used to be known more for being jerkish than an executive leader.  Thune is a future leader but he is very green, like Obama was in 2008, so Thune will need a lot of breaks to beat the more campaign experienced and leadership in Romney. 

I think there is more appeal for a 2-term Governor like Huckabee in 2008, so Daniels has a chance but he doesn't want to run.  T-Paw is good but very boring.  There are some other 2-term governors and I think they have a likelier chance of beating Romney and Palin (who won't run) for the nomination.

[milhouse24]

Thune is a future leader but he is very green, like Obama was in 2008, so Thune will need a lot of breaks to beat the more campaign experienced and leadership in Romney.

By the 2012 election, Thune will have spent 6 years in the House and 8 in the Senate.  That's at least as much experience than most serious presidential candidates.  Heck, look at the top 3 Democratic contenders in 2008: Clinton had 8 years in the Senate, Edwards 6 and Obama 4.  None of them had held any other office higher than state legislator.  Romney has all of one 4 year term as MA governor.  Compared to that, I'd hardly call Thune "very green".

Well it hurt Hillary and Edwards for their lack of experience, Hillary had to rely on the old "co-president" line.  It was very much a celebrity-change inspired election.  But as I said before, the 2-term governors have more valuable executive experience.  Senator Thune is beholden to Presidents Bush and Obama, and will have votes associated with the president at that time.  He is going to have to Spin his votes, instead of touting a leadership position like a Governor.

Is Thune the Republican version of Senator JFK and Senator Obama?  He is young, good-looking, but is he charismatic enough to win over skeptical GOP voters and leaders?

[milhouse24]

Romney at 27.8? What are people smoking.

The guy is not any more attractive today than he was in 2007. Yeah there will be more focus on economic issues, but his signature initiative as Governor is now wrapped around Obama a coat of sweat after a hot summer day. He didn't even show a pulse in Iowa. And he's at a huge disadvantage to more consistent (non Mormon) conservatives in South Carolina. And he's about as charismatic as a TV weather man.

80 percent chance the GOP nominee will be Palin. The only reason not to buy Palin right now is the fact that Intrade deposits are in Irish banks and having any money in an Irish bank these days is a gamble in itself. In fact, I would say at the moment she has about a 40 percent chance of being inaugurated on January 20, 2013.

Hate to break it to you, but Palin is much more interested in getting rich than running for President.

[milhouse24]

Why would Jeb Bush even be on the charts?

I think Jeb is the only person who can decide his own destiny and if he wanted to run, the RNC voters would unanimously vote for Jeb either in 2012 or 2016.

[milhouse24]

Thune is a future leader but he is very green, like Obama was in 2008, so Thune will need a lot of breaks to beat the more campaign experienced and leadership in Romney.

By the 2012 election, Thune will have spent 6 years in the House and 8 in the Senate.  That's at least as much experience than most serious presidential candidates.  Heck, look at the top 3 Democratic contenders in 2008: Clinton had 8 years in the Senate, Edwards 6 and Obama 4.  None of them had held any other office higher than state legislator.  Romney has all of one 4 year term as MA governor.  Compared to that, I'd hardly call Thune "very green".

If anything, Thune's weakness is having too much experience, in the form of consistently voting with Bush and for the bailouts.  Bush isn't the albatross he is in a Democratic primary of course or general election, but association with him could maybe even be a negative in the Republican 2012 primary where the party seems eager to distance themselves from his tenure.  It will be interesting to see how the subject of Bush is treated in that primary and whether the media puts Republican candidates on the spot as far as assessing his record.

I think they would ignore Bush for the most part.  Each person wants to be seen as his own man.  In 2008, somehow McCain's leading issue tied him to bush, which was McCain's unwavering support for Iraq and the Surge.  Sure the surge ended up working in 2007 as a last gasp by the Bush administration, but by that time most voters were ready to turn the page on Iraq and let them settle the war themselves.  Instead of being his own man, McCain tied himself to Iraq and therefore closer to the Bush administration. 

I think governors like Barbour and Daniels will have more breathing room because they don't have to talk about Bush or the Senate votes.  They can talk about middle-america and our future, not the past. 

Romney is a has-been who is kissing up to the Bush and Conservatives since 2008.  Is he really giving the change people want. 

Newt is 67 years old and I really don't think he has any base of voters.  Will Christian conservatives rally around the thrice-divorced former speaker?  He's an intellectual, but he needs to be a crowd-pleaser and Haley is a crowd-pleaser.

[milhouse24]

Romney at 27.8? What are people smoking.

The guy is not any more attractive today than he was in 2007. Yeah there will be more focus on economic issues, but his signature initiative as Governor is now wrapped around Obama a coat of sweat after a hot summer day. He didn't even show a pulse in Iowa. And he's at a huge disadvantage to more consistent (non Mormon) conservatives in South Carolina. And he's about as charismatic as a TV weather man.

80 percent chance the GOP nominee will be Palin. The only reason not to buy Palin right now is the fact that Intrade deposits are in Irish banks and having any money in an Irish bank these days is a gamble in itself. In fact, I would say at the moment she has about a 40 percent chance of being inaugurated on January 20, 2013.

Hate to break it to you, but Palin is much more interested in getting rich than running for President.

And how do you know that? You have a mind reading device?

I trust Levi Johnson when he says that Palin wanted to get rich off her new found fame. 
Of course, if she sees a higher calling to be president, and give up that money, that could happen.  But she's in a good position now, it can hurt her brand more if she gets into an ugly primary battle with Romney and others.  If you think she sounded dumb in 2008, then prepare for a huge stinkbomb when she goes on those 10 or more primary debates.  Plus, if she gets the nomination and loses to Obama, she would have really wasted a lot of time and income earning.

[milhouse24]

I don't think she will win the GOP nomination particularly because she will get massacred in the Debates against Romney and Gingrich and Barbour. 

She'll have a lot of verbal slipups and be refudiated and it will further cement her position as a airhead, thus turning off a lot more GOP faithful.  Remember, she never "Earned" her credentials, she was Chosen by McCain as VP.  She never actually won any votes on such a high level.  Do voters want her "controlling the Button"? 

Similar situation for Fred Thompson, Sam Brownback and other so-called Religious Conservatives who faded away badly.  Unless she can get a ton more money than Romney and turn herself into the Female Dubya Bush of the GOP Establishment I'm afraid she is a sure-fire loser, and therefore should not risk losing and ruining her endorsement potential.

But the benefit from winning outweighs the stigma of a loss.

A win in the GOP primary seems likely according to some polls (less likely according to others) and that alone is probably worth it.

A victory over Barack Obama of course gets her to the White House and that opens up even more possibilities.

The person with the best favorables among Republicans nearly always wins the primaries.  It's no contest with her, Gingrich, and Romney in that arena.

[milhouse24]

Wow Pawlenty jumped.  I wonder how long that will last.

T-Paw jumped because he is the only one that announced.

When everyone else announces, it will even out.

[milhouse24]

Rubio's only 40 years old.  Probably the other guy from florida.

[milhouse24]

As I've said before, I think elections and the winners depend on the type of personality and the seriousness the candidates exhibit.  I never thought Perry was serious or put much thought in the presidency until a few months ago, and it showed in his debates and in his polling. 

In 2008, Romney was all over the place and trying to in-authentically be a hardline christian conservative and voters didn't buy into the recent change.  But Romney has always been a serious businessman, and that's role he's comfortable playing and the public is comfortable seeing him in this role. 

I think Republican voters will end up with Romney as the nominee because above all else, they want a fiscally competent, serious, and responsible leader.  When candidates are wishy-washy, inexperienced, or too mild-mannered, then voters will be turned off. 

I also think voters coalesce around the candidate or nominee and are shaped by his personality.  Romney has to get buy-in from voters about his personality and his vision and leadership.