Spanish General Election 2011

[Niemeyerite]

Let's start today:

A CORUÑA

PP won 4 seats here with 43% of the vote. PSOE got 3 with 40%, while BNG won the last one with only 12%. IU had a ridiculous result here in 2008, they didn't even manage to get 2% of the vote.

A Coruña is a really conservative province... and the best one for PP in Galicia in this year's municipal elections. IU had a good result in the capital, too. PSOE lost the mayorship, and had a very bad result in Santiago and Ferrol, too. In small villages, results weren't THAT bad for them.

So, this time we have a very strong PP, a stronger IU, and a weaker PSOE. BNG may loose some votes, too. But they'll keep their seat, for sure. In 2008, PSOE had a very good result, but that didn't translate in seats... so, they can have a worse result than 2008 and still keep their 3 seats.

Polls predict 5 PP, 2 PSOE, 1 BNG.

PSOE has a damn good candidate here, Francisco Caamaño, minister of Justice. Not charismatic, but a common "gallego", a hard-working campaigner and a really clever man. So we could have a surprise here, with PSOE keeping its 3 seats.

My prediction (being optimistic with my party):

PP 4 seats
PSOE 3 seats
BNG 1 seat

[Niemeyerite]

I'm campaigning hard these days... tomorrow I'll have sometime to post my analysis.. But I'm not sure, I'm promoting a Cinema session in my high school and I want a looooooooooooot of people to come, I've been in contact with different associations, political parties, organizations... and tomorrow is the day of pupils hahaha... We (my economics teacher and me) want this to be a success

[Niemeyerite]

I'm sure polls open at 9 and close at 21:00. In Canary Islands, I'm not sure, but I think they close at 8:00

[Niemeyerite]

In my town the turnout is higher than in 2008. In the Basque Country, Jaen and Cordoba it's also grown. In the rest of Spain, it's lower.

I've been all the time helping PSOE people this morning. But, you know, "Alea Iacta Est". Rajoy will win, unfortunately...

My prediction:

PP 183-186
PSOE 126-129 (being optimistic)
IU 7-9
UPyD 2-3
CiU 12
PNV 4
Aralar 5
BNG 2
CC-NC 3
FAC 2
ERC 2-3
Compromis/Equo 2
PRC 0 (unfortunately)

[Niemeyerite]

So polls close in roughly two and a half hours, right? When do we expect PP to hit around 160-175 seats? Does anyone have a decent live stream of the results coverage?

PP will have 175 seats at the very beggining of the night. I'll be following the results here: http://www.generales2011.mir.es/ini99v.htm

and also in ELPAIS.COM, twitter and elmundo.es

My town is San Sebastian de los Reyes (north of Madrid)

[Niemeyerite]

GALICIA:

A Coruña PP 4 (=) PSOE 3 (=) BNG 1 (=)

Pontevedra PP 4 (+1) PSOE 2 (-1) BNG 1 (=)

Lugo PP 3 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1) (being pessimistic becuse my guts say they will have 2 each)

Ourense PP 3 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

ASTURIAS: PSOE 3 (-1) PP 2 (-2) FAC 2 (+2) IU 1 (+1)

CANTABRIA: PP 3 (=) PSOE 2 (=)

PAIS VASCO:

Bizkaia PSOE 3 (-1) PNV 2 (-1) PP 2 (+1) Amaiur 1 (+1)

Araba PSOE 2 (=) PP 2 (+1) (Here I don't know if PNV will finally get their seat... so, 0-1 for them)

Guipuzkoa PSOE 2 (-2) Amaiur 2 (+2) PP 1 (=)  PNV 1 (-2)

LA RIOJA: PP 3 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

NAVARRA: UPN-PP 2 (=) PSOE 2 (=) Geroa Bai 1 (=) (here, Amaiur could get 1 seat, "stealing" it from PSOE or Geroa Bai)

ARAGÓN:

Huesca PP 2 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

Zaragoza PP 4 (+1) PSOE 2 (-2) IU-CHA 1 (+1) (my relatives from there say it'll be 3-3-1, I hope they're right)

Teruel PP 2 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

CATALUNYA:

Lleida PSOE 2 (=) CiU 1 (=) PP 1 (=) (but polls are convinced it's 1-2-1)

Barcelona PSOE 11-12 (-4 -5) PP 8 (+2) CiU 7 (+1) ICV 2-3 (+2 +1) ERC 2 (=) (sorry, but I don't know how things will go here, Barcelona and Catalunya are impossible to predict)

Girona CiU 2 (=) PSOE 2 (-1) PP 1 (=) ERC 1 (=) (PP could get 2 and ERC 0)

Tarragona PSOE 3 (-1) PP 2 (+1) CiU 1 (=) (polls predict 2-2-2)

COMUNIDAD VALENCIANA:

Castellón PP 3(=) PSOE 2 (=)

Valencia PP 9 (=) PSOE 5 (-2) IU 1 (+1) Compromis 1 (+1) (10-4-1-1 is also a possibility, and some people say UPyD will win a seat here, because their candidate is a famous, but really bad, "actor")

Alicante PP 7 (=) PSOE 5 (=)

MURCIA: PP 7 (=) PSOE 2 (-1) IU 0-1 (= +1) UPyD 0-1 (=+1) (I hate Murcia, so it would suprise me if they voted 8-2 PP, oh, and I think IU's more likely than UPyD to get a seat)

ANDALUCIA:

Almeria PP 4 (+1) PSOE 2 (-1)

Cádiz PP 5 (+1) PSOE 3 (-2) (Cadiz lost 1 seat)

Córdoba PP 3 (+1) PSOE 3 (-1)

Granada PP 4 (+1) PSOE 3 (-1)

Huelva PSOE 3 (=) PP 2 (=)

Jaén PSOE 4 (=) PP 2 (=) (Polls say it's 3-3 but Jaen people are really intelligent, let's see what happens)

Málaga PP 6 (+1) PSOE 4 (-1) (or 7-3, Malaga is becoming the new Almeria, which is the new Murcia)

Sevilla PSOE 6 (-2) PP 5 (+1) IU 1 (+1)

EXTREMADURA:  

Cáceres PP 3 (+2) PSOE 1 (-1)

Badajoz PP 3 (=) PSOE 3 (=) (Badajoz, I trust you... but polls say it's 4-2)

CASTILLA LA MANCHA:

Toledo PP 4 (+1) PSOE 2 (-1)

Albacete PP 3 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

Ciudad Real PP 3 (=) PSOE 2 (=) (efecto Barreda)

Cuenca PP 2 (=) PSOE 1 (=)

Guadalajara PP 2 (=) PSOE 1 (=)

MADRID: PP 20 (+2) PSOE 10-11 (-4 -5) IU 2-3 (+1 +2) UPyD 2-3 (+1 +2)) Equo 0-1 (= +1) (so, PP has 20, PSOE 10, UPyD 2 and IU 2, and the last seat could go for PSOE, UPyD, IU or Equo)

CASTILLA Y LEÓN:

Ávila PP 2 (=) PSOE 1 (=) (Avilla is reeeeeeally conservative, so it could be 3-0)

Burgos PP 3 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

León PP 3 (+1) PSOE 2 (-1)

Palencia PP 2 (=) PSOE 1 (=)

Salamanca PP 3 (+1) PSOE 1 (-1)

Segovia PP 2 (=) PSOE 1 (=)

Soria PP 1 (=) PSOE 1 (=) (in a very good night for PP, it's 2-0)

Valladolid PP 3 (=) PSOE 2 (=) (or 4-1, I don't know)

Zamora PP 2 (=) PSOE 1 (=)

ILLES BALEARS: PP 5 (+1) PSOE 3 (-1)

ISLAS CANARIAS:

Las Palmas PP 5 (+1) PSOE 2 (-2) CC-NC 1 (+1) (Hopefully, PSOE wins 3 and CC-NC 0)

Tenerife PP 3 (+1) PSOE 2 (-1) CC-NC 2 (=)

[Niemeyerite]

My town is San Sebastian de los Reyes (north of Madrid)

Heh. The German wiki has more to say on it than the English.

It's a dull, uninteresting place (Sorry Julio). A Spanish equivalent of an exurb nowadays.

It may be for you, but you shouldn't have said that. I love "Sanse" and we're the most "fast-growing" town in Madrid (is fast-growing right?). And we have the biggest green local party in Spain (Izquierda Independiente).

[Niemeyerite]

Yes, hopefully PNV wins more votes than Amaiur, but I also hope that the people in Euskadi vote like your mother

My dad has voted PSOE, and all but one person in my family (wh lives in Cat. and has voted CiU)

My neighbors... I'm sure a majority of them have voted PSOE and IU (my neighborhood is the only one in Sanse where PP didn't won in May, Izquierda Independiente won)

[Niemeyerite]

I'm not going anywhere. I haven't got anything to claim victory for.. so, the only thing I hope is Rubalcaba has a not-that-bad results and PRC wins the seat they deserve).

Sanse is the most comfortable place to live in the World, too. We can catch the train to Madrid and be there in 30 minutes... We have the biggest shopping malls in Spain, and the city is really quiet and modern.
Also, we're called "La Pamplona Chica" because, after those in Pamplona, our festivals are the best in Spain (and our "encierros" are famous all over the World)
So, stop talking about Sanseeee!!

[Niemeyerite]

12 minutes to go.

I thought polls closed at 9:00...

[Niemeyerite]

I'm absolutely devastated.

[Niemeyerite]

How quickly do you guys see the Rajoy government becoming extremely unpopular and prompting mass protests/riots?

Rajoy IS very unpopular, and there'll be protests tomorrow.

First polls, coming from PP:

PP 185-195
PSOE 115-125

What an useless poll!!!

____________________

Here I have some questions:

-Will PSOE win more or less seats than 125 (the number of seats carried by Almunia)?
-Will Revilla get his seat in Cantabria?
-Who will win in Huelva?
-Who comes 2nd in Catalunya, CiU or PP?
-Will Equo have a parliamentary group (+5 seats)? (ICV-equo-compromis)

______________________

RTVE poll:

PSOE 30% 115-119
PP 43.5% 181-185
CiU 13-15
IU 9-11
Amaiur 6-7
PNV 4-5
UPyD 3-4
ERC 3
CC 2-3
BNG 2

[Niemeyerite]

FAC 1 Geora Bai 0-1 Compromis 0-1

[Niemeyerite]

Importante facts:
IU gets 1 seat in Asturias
Amaiur wins the battle against PNV
UPyD may get their seat in Valencia
ERC will get a better than expected results (as I predicted)

[Niemeyerite]

For reference, the PSOE's worst result since the return of democracy was in 1977 (29.3% and 118 seats), while the PP's best result was in 2000 (44.5% and 183 seats). Good set of results for the non-PSOE left, by the looks of things.

Yes, but there were a lot of left parties which then went to the PSOE, like PSP, some communist parties, PSUC...

[Niemeyerite]

Poll from Canal 9 (Valencia):

PP 20-22
PSOE 10-11 (-4-3)
IU (1-2)
Compromis (0-1)
UPyD (0-1)

[Niemeyerite]

Wow. I need the name of that anchor on the live stream.    She's the only thing better than the results right now.

She's Ana Blanco. The left is in love with her (myself included) and is a brillant journalist, but PP hates her because they say she's biased (which is false, as RTVE and her programme "Los desayunos" has got a lot of international recognition and has won many prizes).

[Niemeyerite]

No, no. Rubalcaba will remain the leader of the opposition, but he won't ru for General Secretary of PSOE, that for sure.

What's being said is that the candidates could be Eduardo Madina, Carme Chacon or Patxi Lopez.
Any of them is perfect for me.

The winner of the night may be Amaiur

[Niemeyerite]

No, no. Rubalcaba will remain the leader of the opposition, but he won't ru for General Secretary of PSOE, that for sure.

What's being said is that the candidates could be Eduardo Madina, Carme Chacon or Patxi Lopez.
Any of them is perfect for me.

The winner of the night may be Amaiur

Does he honestly think he can win a future election?

No, he'll be the leader of the opposition. the candidate will be our general secretary.
And Rubalcaba is a popular man, I'm sure without the crisis, he would have beaten PP...

What we don't want is a replay of 2000, when Almunia resigned the same night he lost and PSOE stayed 1 year and a half without a leader.

[Niemeyerite]

LoL, sorry, obviously you're referring to Ana Pastor, and me too. I always change their names hahahaha...

[Niemeyerite]

I hate Ana Mato...

Oh, and TV3 says PSC will win in Catalunya, with CiU 2nd and PP 3rd. CiU was 3rd in the last polls, so this will be a better than expected night for Duran i Lleida.

[Niemeyerite]

Andalucia RTVE

31-34

PSOE 24-27
IU 1-2

[Niemeyerite]

Catalunya

PSC 15-17
CiU 13-15
PP 11
IU 3
ERC 3

Wow, PP won less seats than expected!!

Euskadi:

Amaiur 5-6
PSOE 4-5
PNV 4-5
PP 3-4

Here, worse than expected for PP, too

[Niemeyerite]

Aragon
7-8 PP
4-5 PSOE
0-1 IU

Asturias

PP 3
PSOE 3
FAC 1
IU 1
Canarrias
8-9 PP
4-5
2-3CC
Cantabria
3-4
1-2

CyL
PP 21-22
PSOE 10-11

Extremadura
PSOE 5
PP 5

better than expected

Galicia
PP 14-15
PSOE 6-7
BNG 2

Madrid

PP 19-20
PSOE 10-11
UPyD 3
IU 2-3

Navarra
UPN 2-3
PSOE 1-2
Amaiur 1

[Niemeyerite]

Murcia
7-8 PP
2-3 PSOE

Rioja
2-3 PP
1-2 PSOE

Valencia

20-22
PSOE 9-11
IU 1-2
UPYD 0-1
Compromis 0-1

Ceuta 1
Melilla 1