Why I think John Thune is the GOP's best chance in 2012

[Yelnoc]

Thune seems more like a running mate to me, a good pick for a more liberal republican nominee that wants to shore up the base.  Not that we're going to get a liberal republican but you get the point.

[Yelnoc]

pbrower, a lot of those "swing" states won't be in 2012.  Here is your map from the EV Calculator.  It shows Obama with 169 Ev's, but with the new Census distribution he will have a bit less then that.

Now, because of the oil spill, Florida is almost certainly in the GOP column.  Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia swing back to the GOP column because there will be a higher voter turnout amongst conservatives and because he won't be able to run a campaign as effectove as "Hope" and "Change".  The EV gap has just closed considerably.

Next, I think his regional appeal will allow him to win NE-02 while holding Montana and Missouri.  Now it's very close, according to 270towin.com Obama is barely ahead, 264-247.

Now, Thune has to win both Ohio and Colorado.  Honestly, I don't know whether he will be able to and it's really impossible to make any kind of prediction before we have even gotten to midterms on which way these states will swing.

[Yelnoc]

Obama is at 41% in Colorado.

The thing is, how would Thune match up against Obama in Colorado?  Honestly I have no idea.

[Yelnoc]

Florida goes back to the GOP because of the oil spill?

The swift and effective response ensures that the spill is off people's minds long before November 2012.  The solution to the gusher in the Gulf was an engineering solution -- not a political solution.

The oil spill is the result of lax enforcement of safety and environmental laws that the previous Administration promoted on behalf of his oil buddies. The President may have had priorities other than purging a regulatory bureaucracy that did a bad job.

Florida remains a legitimate swing state.  

lol

This pretty much sums up what I was going to say.

[Yelnoc]

Your arguments are very valid and reasonable. However, I will state my opinion again: I think Obama will beat any GOPer in 2012 because the economy will continue to improve and many people will begin feeling the recovery. Thus, Obama could just say in 2012 "Bush screwed over our economy. I fixed it. Elect another Republican with Bush's policies and the economy will go down the drain again."

Obama's policies are the same as Bush's policies.

I don't think Bush would have gone with a stimulus and Obama isn't really in to Bush's tax cuts.

[Yelnoc]

I like Thune's young family man approach, but he's not ready yet. Someone with governing and military experience is needed for the job with us fighting 2 wars and being so far in debt.

Iraq is going to be over at the end of 2011, so we're only going to be fighting one war in 2012.

I'm not sure how you already know this. Obama never said it would be over and only suggested that we'd be bringing some troops home. I hope we're not in any wars but until Al-Qaida is gone we will always be at war.

We have a timeline to leave Iraq in place.  By December 31, all US troops are scheduled to leave Iraq.  That doesn't mean that we are going to stop fighting Al-Qaeda, only that Iraq will no longer be our battlefield.  Most likely we will end up intervening in Yemen.

[Yelnoc]

I like Thune's young family man approach, but he's not ready yet. Someone with governing and military experience is needed for the job with us fighting 2 wars and being so far in debt.

Iraq is going to be over at the end of 2011, so we're only going to be fighting one war in 2012.

I'm not sure how you already know this. Obama never said it would be over and only suggested that we'd be bringing some troops home. I hope we're not in any wars but until Al-Qaida is gone we will always be at war.

We have a timeline to leave Iraq in place.  By December 31, all US troops are scheduled to leave Iraq.  That doesn't mean that we are going to stop fighting Al-Qaeda, only that Iraq will no longer be our battlefield.  Most likely we will end up intervening in Yemen.

In late 2008, Bush and the Iraqi govt. negotiated an agreement which stated that all U.S. forces must withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2011. And I doubt we will have a large-scale intervention in Yemen. Maybe some bombings here and there, but the American people would be wary of starting another full war. We'll probably just give more aid to the Yemeni dictator (who is pro-American) in fighting al-Qaeda.

I meant December 31, 2011.

And the reason I think that we'll eventually go into Yemen is that between its Nepotistic dictator, southern seperatists, northern rebels, and Al-Qaeda elements it is fast becoming another Somalia.  And, like it or not, America is the world's police state.  In my mind, some kind of UN intervention seems immenent and guess who will spearhead that?