Nichlemn
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,920
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« on: September 04, 2011, 06:23:43 AM » |
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« edited: September 04, 2011, 07:06:42 AM by Nichlemn »
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Top bellwethers each year, for easy viewing:
1824 - Maryland
1828 - Indiana
1832 - Maine
1836 - Maine
1840 - Mississippi
1844 - Indiana
1848 - Connecticut
1852 - Iowa
1856 - New Jersey
1860 - California
1864 - Maryland
1868 - Pennsylvania
1872 - Louisiana
1876 - Connecticut
1880 - Indiana
1884 - Connecticut
1888 - Connecticut
1892 - California
1896 - Ohio
1900 - Ohio
1904 - New Jersey
1908 - Kansas
1912 - Colorado
1916 - New Mexico
1920 - Oregon
1924 - New York
1928 - West Virginia
1932 - Iowa
1936 - Colorado
1940 - Delaware
1944 - New Mexico
1948 - Wisconsin
1952 - New Mexico
1956 - New Mexico
1960 - Illinois
1964 - Delaware
1968 - Maryland
1972 - Maryland
1976 - Pennsylvania
1980 - Ohio
1984 - Ohio
1988 - Michigan
1992 - Iowa
1996 - Iowa
2000 - Iowa
2004 - Ohio
2008 - Virginia
Some interesting notes:
- Ohio and Iowa are tied for the most common #1 bellwether spot, at 5 apiece.
- Missouri has never been the #1 bellwether. It has been the #2 a couple of times, but otherwise has been almost always 5th to 20th.
- Although Iowa was the #1 bellwether for three elections in a row from 1992-2000, a record, it was 46th (!) in 1988.
- In 2008, Virginia was the first state in the former Confederacy to be the #1 bellwether since Louisiana in 1872. Mississippi in 1840 was the only other.
- Florida was only #4 in 2000.
- DC has been #51 since 1968. Utah was #50 from 1980 to 2004.
- From 1900 to 1936, South Carolina was the #1 anti-bellwether and Mississippi #2. In the election preceeding and the two elections afterwards, the order was reversed.
- Alabama has the lowest peak of any state, at #7 (in 1824 and 1868).
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