What scenario is the unlikeliest? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 03, 2024, 03:04:02 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  What scenario is the unlikeliest? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: What scenario is the unlikeliest in terms of a presidential election?
#1
Vermont and Georgia vote for the same candidate.
#2
Virginia and Indiana vote for different candidates.
#3
Ohio and Missouri both vote for the losing candidate.
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: What scenario is the unlikeliest?  (Read 1064 times)
Nichlemn
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,920


« on: June 10, 2012, 12:43:17 AM »


But it happened quite often: 1840, 1848, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1992.

I'd say it's not likely to happen again in the near future, but it's not "obviously" unlikely, since Georgia has been trending blue.

#2 happened in 1824, 1836, 1840, 1848, 1860, (VA not voting in 1864/8) 1880, 1888, 1896, 1900, 1904, 1908, 1916, 1920, 1924, 1940, 1994, 1948. It hasn't happened recently, but it nearly did in 2008 and could easily do so this year.

#3 only happened in 1824 and 1848, which makes sense because voting together AND for the loser are quite stringent conditions, especially as Missouri has historically had a bit of a Democratic lean and Ohio a bit of Republican one. Now that they both have Republican leans, it's quite plausible. Obama could win without Ohio this year, which would likely have him lose Missouri too, satisfying the condition.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 14 queries.