What are the best case, worst case and median scenarios for a Trump presidency?

[Nichlemn]

Or if you like to think quantitatively, the 99th percentile, 1st percentile and 50th percentile outcomes.

Feel free to base your answers on your own subjective political views. E.g. if you're a liberal Democrat, "Trump is actually a Democrat plant all along" might be your 99th percentile outcome.

[Nichlemn]

My answers:

Best case/99th percentile: As a businessman with many foreign investments and foreign workers, Trump doesn't believe any of his nativist rhetoric. However, his strongman/dealmaker image causes other countries to open up their markets out of fear of Trump being a hardliner, resulting in a freer, more globalised world.

Median case/50th percentile: Trump doesn't fully achieve any of his promises in part due to stymieing from Congress (e.g. the Mexico border wall would probably end up as a few symbolic sections and generally increased funding for border security). For the most past, his Presidency is business as usual for most Americans. There are plenty of controversies, but most of them are primarily of symbolic importance (e.g. accusations of bigotry). Nonetheless, his Presidency still leaves the US and the world a more insular and less trusting place, holding back global cooperation.

Worst case/1st percentile: Trump sincerely wants to become an authoritarian dictator. Everything Vox warns about him is true. Trump will do everything he can to increase executive power and try to punish his political opponents. Thankfully, American democratic institutes are probably too strong for Trump to become a fully-fledged dictator. However, he will have softened them up enough that he would have materially increased the chances of a future President becoming a dictator.

I think that the worst cases scenarios are the best reason to oppose Trump. It's not at all likely that Trump will be the next Hitler, but those small odds are probably larger than any other recent Presidential candidate.

[Nichlemn]

I do think the movements of the financial markets indicate that "Trump nuclear annihilation" type outcomes probably can't be all that likely. If traders seriously thought there was a real risk of that, then whenever Trump's odds improve significantly, markets should crash.