State Legislatures and Redistricting

[Kevinstat]

Maine actually redistricts after the 2012 election.

I got my State Representative (a Democrat who was defeated for reelection two days ago), to put in a bill to change that after the last election.  I figured 2009 was early enough to make the change, but I hadn't thought about the fact that that would move the Spring/Summer (if the Maine Supreme Court has to do it) 2013 apportionment to Spring/Summer 2011, which (the first half of 2011) was in the fiscal biennium that the Legislature in 2009 was responsible for the budget for.  I've heard the Maine Constitution requires a ballanced budget (I'm unsure of the particulars), and there was a huge projected shortfall assuming the level of expenditures at the time and taxes, fees and whatnot were kept as they are.  Even though the fiscal note was only for $485,000 (Maine has an advisory Apportionment Commission which I believe uses expensive computer software, and while I could whip up a plan myself with perhaps a little help with the town splits for the House and Senate districts with minimal costs that I could swallow, you can't change the rules governing what is expected for state funding of apportionment in a constitutional amendment) and I heard that some offsetting funds would have likely come from the national political parties (that wouldn't be there by 2013), there doesn't seem to have been any consideration of the state covering that cost (really moving an existing cost ahead).

The presiding committee apparently looked at whether national (government) funds were available to offset the cost (they weren't) and at having the next redistricting be in 2012 (which wouldn't be soon enough to go into effect for the 2012 election unless there were major statutory changes to the start of the filing period (currently January 1), the filing deadline (March 15 for major party candidates, which includes the Greens in Maine) and the primary (the second Tuesday in June)) (see the House committeee chairs remarks on his motion to indefinitely postpone (kill) the bill on pages H-573 on this word document of the House Legislative Record for that day).  I found out from the House Chair of that committee (the main committees in the Maine Legislature are joint (House and Senate) committees), whom I had written about a technical error in a floor amendment to the bill in his name (although the committe's policy analyst had written it), that the sponsor (my State Representative) had agreed to the bill being indefinitely postponed.  I wasn't very happy about that, but she did make what I thought was a good effort on the bill for a retired director of some state dental hygene program (she was a dental hygenist by trade, I believe) who had first been elected in 2007 to replace her late husband (who himself had been elected in a special election earlier that year).  And she put infinitely more effort than my Republican State Senator, who was reelected with 63% of the vote on Tuesday) seemed to put in (perhaps my casually mentioning that I had volunteered regularly for the Democrats in 2008 when I called him about my idea that November wasn't wise).  My State Representative had put in what she described as the same bill this summer for next year's session (incumbents can do that), but I'm not sure what will happen to it now that she's been defeated.  There would be logistical issues in trying now to redistrict before the 2012 elections (not as much for Congress as all the timing provisions and even the supermajoiry requirement for enacting a plan are all statutory and can be "notwithstood" in newly enacted statutes or amended by new legislation; I imagine there would be a reluctance to abandon the advisory commission process which is established in the Maine Constitution anyway for legislative redistricting).  The bill could be (or could have been) amended to keep the next redistricting in 2013 but move redistrictings after that from 2023 and every 10 years thereafter to 2021 and every 10 years thereafter.

A "cyberfriend" of mine whom I met through a conservative Maine political website I frequent (I generally post statistical/analytical stuff there like here) and who represents Republicans in recount provided advice and support for the bill last year, getting 1975-1983 ME-01 Congressman and MEGOP redistricting guru David Emery to speak and do some limited lobbying on behalf of the bill.  His State Senator, a Democrat (who unseated a Republican incumbent two years ago and hung on solidly on Tuesday) whom I chatted it up with at a party HQ "opening" (I'd already been there as a jumping point for two canvasses by then), is someone I have in mind as a possible replacement sponsor of the bill.  He was on the committee that handles most bills affecting election law (but not that bill last year, which may have been due to an erroneous subject heading although the committee it went to, State and Local Government, handles most constitutional amendment proposals) in the term now effectively over.  If he doesn't put in the bill I'll try to find someone else.  Republicans might oppose moving the 2013 redistricting ahead now that they're in the majority and might be hurt more by new lines in 2012, but I can't see why a constitutional amendment resolution to move redistricings after 2013 ahead two years (with a companion bill doing the same for congressional, county commissioner, the elected county finace/budget committees in the two conties that elect them redistricting that isn't covered in the Maine Constitution) wouldn't sail through the Legislature next year and get adopted by the voters in the resulting referendum.  Maybe Governor LePage and the newly ascendent Republican legislative leadership won't see it as a priority, but my Republican friend would probably make sure they don't pass up a chance for an easy "win" on a good government issue such as this (more timely redistricting and more equal respresentation between the "2" and "4" year elections).

[Kevinstat]

Can the New York State Senate (and the New York State Assembly) redistrict itself without requiring the approval of either the other chamber or the Governor?

Even if so, I imagine a Republican NY State Senate couldn't undo the change in how prisoners are counted (even just for State Senate districts) on their own so if they just scraped by with a Senate majority at the end of this era of Senate districts then I see the Democrats gaining control of the chamber for good by the middle of this decade (by the legislative inaugaration after the 2014 elections), if not earlier.  The Republicans' best bet might be to make the, say, 25th and 28th most Republican State Senate district as Republican as possible (a two-layer defense against obscurity; 25 and 28 Republicans would be 40% and 45% of a 62-member Senate) and hope the Democrats will not bother to redraw the districts after they regain control in 2012 than try to gerrymander their way to another decade of control and end up with less than a third of the seats in the State Senate by 2021.

[Kevinstat]

Although Maine currently redistricts after years ending in a 2, might they change the law to do it early this time? First and foremost, Maine Republicans will want to protect their own majorities and could do so with gerrymandering. [...] Finally, it's easy for them to justify as "synchronising with other states".

My reply:

Legislative redistricting in Maine before 2013 (and legislative redistricting in Maine done by the Legislature without 2/3 support in each chamber, which the Republicans don't have), would require a state constitutional amendment, which itself requires a 2/3 vote in each house of the Legislature.

Well, the reason they don't do it in time for 2012 is that with their strange (and short) sessions and very early primary filing deadlines, they don't really have time do it in time for 2012.

My reply:

The Statutory adjournment date of the odd-year regular session of the Maine Legislature is now the third Wednesday in June.  How much later than that do odd-year regular sessions adjourn in most states?

It wouldn't be *impossible*, certainly not for two federal districts that aren't going to be gerrymandered anyways, but if the necessary law change hasn't happened before the 2010 election it won't happen in time to affect this redistricting cycle.

My reply: The change didn't happen last year (the bipartisan bill Dan the Roman mentioned to do that for Maine's legislative redistricting failed) because it would have moved the associated costs with redistricting (Maine has an advisory commission which uses, as far as I can tell, expensive taxpayer-funded computer software) into the fiscal biennium the Legislature at the time was responsible for making the budget for, and there was already a huge shortfall.  A new congressional and county commissioner district plan could be adopted next year like ordinary law with the established funds for bill drafting and the like being all the funding that is requiered.  See my quote below from another current thread.

There are similar statutory provisions for congressional and county commissioner redistricting in Maine, but the relevent sections, subsections, and whatnot could be amended or "notwithstood" by a law enacting new plans for those districts which could be passed and signed by the Governor as easily as "normal" legislation.  I could see the Republicans redrawing Maine's congressional districts next year, but I could easily see them deciding not to risk negative PR on an early (based on current Maine law, which should have been fixed long ago regarding the timing of redistricting) and partisan redistricting.

Since making that post late last night (or very early this morning), I received the following e-mail reply from a Maine Republican insider or "semi-insider" who has been discussing much of this with me (he was the one I believe gathered up a lot of the Republican support for the bipartisan bill Dan the Roman and I have mentioned):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I had discussed the possibility of a Democratic congressional/county commissioner redistricting in 2015 if the Democrats were in complete control by then if the Republicans had rammed through a plan in 2011.  I assume from his statement that Minority Democrats (in the Legislature) would have a good reason to vote for such a change that the 2/3 in each chamber vote requirement in the Maine Constitution for the Legislature to adopt a State House or State Senate redistricting plan in Maine would be included in the new state constitutional provisions for congressional and county commissioner redistricting (the current 2/3 vote requirements for those redistrictings are only in statute which as I mentioned above could be amended or "notwithstood" (disregarded in regards to whatever is being done "notwithstanding" that section, subsection, etc. but retaining its effect elsewhere)).  This e-mail suggests to me that the Republicans in Maine may not be nearly as partisan next year with respect to redistricting as Nichlemn suggests they might be.

[Kevinstat]

Can the New York State Senate (and the New York State Assembly) redistrict itself without requiring the approval of either the other chamber or the Governor?

I don't recall anyone answering this question.

[Kevinstat]

Louisiana is redistricting next year for the 2011 elections, same as Virginia. I believe New Jersey is doing the same, and I can't find anything on Mississippi, except that last time they didn't adopt new maps until spring of 2002.

That's a pretty interesting schedule.  They will hold an extraordinary special redistricting session before the regular session.  Not only does Louisiana hold its elections in odd years, they hold them in October - though because the Open Primary takes the place of partisan primaries, that is actually later than most states,  When Louisiana switched back to the open primary for congressional elections earlier this year, the legislature considered making it effective for 2010, until they realized it would be impossible to get VRA pre-clearance.

Mississippi has regular partisan primaries in July, and some really ugly legislative districts

http://www.msjrc.state.ms.us/ms_house.html

So they might not be able to get it done in time.  It would be interesting if someone were to challenge the existing districts, and force new elections before 2015.  The census bureau can compile population for existing districts if the state submits boundaries in time.

The Mississippi Constitution, last I checkd, actually says that redistricting takes place in 1982 and every 10th year thereafter, but it seems like that was igored in 1991, which was a Legislative election year in Mississippi like 2011 will be.  Legislative redistricting was delayed but because of Justice department non-preclearance (which may have been prompted by a lawsuit from Black legislators and civil rights activists under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act).  And there ended up being Legislative elections in 1992 for a three-year term.  See Mississippi Redistricting Cases:  the 1990s (Watkins v. Maubus and the first Watkins v. Fordice).

[Kevinstat]

Traditionally, each house of the legislature draws its own maps in Virginia, so there may be a Democratic gerrymander for the Senate and a Republican one for the House.

These are not traditional times.

[Kevinstat]

http://www.denverpost.com/legislature/ci_16653887

Looks like Colorado Republicans have both House and Legislature control.  That was the last race called, and it was close.

Hmm? Based on the "only toehold" comment in the article, I would expect the Dems still control the state senate.

Even if it's one vote more for the REPs, they still have the majority regardless.

I think brittain23's point was that the Democrats still have a majority in the State Senate (you had said that it "Looks like Colorado Republicans have both House and Legislature control," which one might interpret as your meaning "House and Senate").  Of course, with a Democratic Governor, the Republicans holding the State House may be more significant in the redistricting process (and in overall governance) than the Democrats holding the State Senate, even if their margin there is bigger.

[Kevinstat]

Here is a spreadsheet of the 2010 post-election state legislature lineup by party:

http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf

Comments and corrections gladly welcomed.

77 Republicans, 73 Democrats and 1 Independent were elected to the Maine House of Representatives this year, but one Democrat (soon to be second-term Rep. Michael J. Willette of Presque Isle in House District 5 who is already counted and listed as a Republican here (his son Alexander (R-Mapleton), who was elected to the House in a neighboring district, apparently convinced him to switch parties)) announced he was switching parties a little over a week after his reelection (he got to vote for the Republican nominee for Speaker even though he couldn't have had his 15 day elligibilty period to vote in a Republican primary or municipal caucus, etc. finished by then), so, counting that switch, your table is correct for Maine (there were one Senate and three House recounts (all Republican requests that could only have increased their majority) but the leading Democrats hung on in all of those).

Why's the 0 for Independents and Others in the South Dakota Senate in boldface though?  At first I thought it was to represent a Republican Lt. Governor (does South Dakota even have one?), but then I saw that the Republicans have (or will have at least) an overwhelming (30 to 5!) majority in that chamber.