UK General Discussion

[YL]

Another disciplinary issue in the Lib Dems: Mike Hancock, MP for Portsmouth South, has been suspended from the party over allegations of sexual misconduct.  (This one has been brewing for some time.)

[YL]

The Guardian has a bit of fun at the expense of the Purple Peril:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/23/the-ukip-politices-disowned-by-nigel-farage

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Pickles is dreadful.

The main (and only) railway line to Cornwall and southern and western Devon suspended above the sea at Dawlish, Devon:



(posted by Francesca Blackham on Twitter)

[YL]

Some recent polls, all online except ICM:

ICM 7-9 Feb: Lab 38 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 10
Opinium 11-14 Feb: Lab 37 Con 28 UKIP 17 Lib Dem 8
ComRes 12/13 Feb: Lab 37 Con 32 UKIP 15 Lib Dem 9
Populus 12/13 Feb: Lab 38 Con 32 UKIP 14 Lib Dem 9
YouGov 13/14 Feb: Lab 39 Con 32 UKIP 12 Lib Dem 9

Populus used to give much lower UKIP scores than most other polls, because they weight by party ID and were using weights from 2010 which had low numbers identifying with UKIP.  They've recently changed their weights, but I'm still a bit sceptical of their weighting methodology. That's not to say that I think the others are perfect, either.

[YL]

I feel sorry for Clegg. People have been conditioned to hate him so much they give the benefit of the doubt to a dangerous politician like Farage.

There was more to it than that.  According to the ICM post-debate poll, 42% of current Lib Dem supporters (excluding don't knows) thought Farage "won" as against 58% who though Clegg did.  That's a pretty lousy outcome for Clegg among people who presumably do not hate him that much as they still support his party.  YouGov figures were similar though slightly better for Clegg.  (Admittedly we are talking small subsamples.)

As for views on the debate, I posted this last night on the EU elections thread:

ICM and YouGov have polls on who "won".  ICM say Farage 69% Clegg 31% (not including don't knows) and YouGov say Farage 68% Clegg 27% (presumably including don't knows as that adds to 95%).

I wasn't very impressed by either of them.  As a left-liberal pro-European I'm never going to like Farage, but I thought Clegg was a shadow of his April 2010 self and rarely seemed convincing.  So I guess the poll figures make sense.

[YL]

A cabinet resignation: Maria Miller (Tory MP for Basingstoke) has resigned as Secretary of State for culture, media and sport after the media had been gunning for her for a week or so.  This is essentially another flare up of the 2009 MPs' expenses scandal.

[YL]

Nigel Evans found not guilty, therefore no Ribble Valley by-election.

Not just that. The evidence against him like wet tissue. It should have never gone to court.

If the Guardian article on the case is accurate I'd have to agree.  What were the police and CPS doing?

[YL]

Jeremy Browne (the very right wing Lib Dem MP for Taunton Deane and former minister) suggests his own party is pointless:

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[YL]

Reports suggest that Patrick Mercer, the MP for Newark who resigned the Tory whip last year in connection with allegations of dodgy relationships with lobbyists, is about to resign from the Commons following a recommendation that he should be suspended for six months.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/29/patrick-mercer-suspended-house-of-commons

EDIT: He has indeed announced that he is resigning his seat

[YL]

A couple of nasty polls for Labour.  Neither is that good for the Tories either in terms of vote share (UKIP are the real beneficiaries) but given how bad they are for Labour that's enough to put the Tories ahead.

ICM: Con 33 Lab 31 UKIP 15 LD 13
Ashcroft: Con 34 Lab 32 UKIP 15 LD 9

[YL]

The longer Labour don't acknowledge Ed Miliband as a problem the better as far as I am concerned.

Yes, it's going to be really great for Labour to get themselves embroiled in a leadership crisis.  Anyway, who would be better?  Balls?  LOL.  Burnham?  Not convinced, and he didn't set the world on fire in the last leadership election.  Cooper?  Can be good, but would suffer from who she's married to.

And I would point out that when Ed M actually gets himself noticed (e.g. conference speeches, or when the Mail went for his father) he tends to do quite well.

[YL]

Lord Ashcroft has released a big "marginals poll".  This is slightly different to the usual style of these: he selected 26 constituencies and polled over 1000 in each, so there are results for each constituency, and if you want to look at overall figures the sample size is unusually large.  Whether the sampling is any good I don't know.

The overall result gives a 6.5% swing from Con to Lab, much better for Labour than the recent ComRes marginals poll.  Some of the details look a bit weird, and the wisdom of doing this in the middle of an EU election might be questioned; there are some very high UKIP scores, although he doesn't have them in the lead anywhere.

Amber Valley: Lab 41 (+4) Con 29 (-10) UKIP 20 (+18) LD 6 (-8)
Broxtowe: Lab 42 (+4) Con 31 (-8) UKIP 14 (+12) LD 8 (-9)
Gogledd Caerdydd: Lab 41 (+4) Con 34 (-3) LD 8 (-10) UKIP 8 (+6) Plaid 7 (+4)
Hendon: Lab 41 (-1) Con 38 (-4) UKIP 13 (+11) LD 5 (-7)
Great Yarmouth: Con 32 (-11) Lab 31 (-2) UKIP 29 (+24) LD 5 (-9)
Lancaster & Fleetwood: Lab 45 (+10) Con 28 (-8) UKIP 12 (+10) LD 7 (-12)
Morecambe & Lunesdale: Lab 39 (-1) Con 36 (-6) UKIP 16 (+12) LD 7 (-6)
North Warwickshire: Lab 39 (-1) Con 33 (-7) UKIP 19 (+16) LD 5 (-7)
Sherwood: Lab 41 (+2) Con 29 (-10) UKIP 21 (+18) LD 5 (-10)
Stockton South: Lab 44 (+6) Con 34 (-5) UKIP 14 (+11) LD 6 (-9)
South Thanet: Con 31 (-17) Lab 31 (nc) UKIP 26 (+20) LD 8 (-7)
Thurrock: Lab 36 (-1) UKIP 31 (+24) Con 24 (-13) LD 5 (-6)
Waveney: Lab 38 (-1) Con 31 (-9) UKIP 21 (+16) LD 6 (-7)
Wolverhampton SW: Lab 46 (+7) Con 31 (-10) UKIP 15 (+11) LD 4 (-12)

Bolton W: Lab 41 (+2) Con 30 (-8) UKIP 19 (+15) LD 6 (-11)
Brum Edgbaston: Lab 41 (nc) Con 33 (-5) UKIP 15 (+13) LD 6 (-9)
Derby N: Lab 41 (+8) Con 26 (-6) UKIP 20 (+18) LD 8 (-20)
Dudley N: Lab 39 (nc) UKIP 29 (+21) Con 25 (-12) LD 4 (-7)
Halifax: Lab 41 (+4) Con 27 (-7) UKIP 19 (+17) LD 8 (-11)
Hampstead & Kilburn: Lab 42 (+9) Con 33 (nc) LD 15 (-16) UKIP 4 (+3)
Great Grimsby: Lab 37 (+4) UKIP 25 (+19) Con 23 (-8) LD 9 (-13)
Morley & Outwood: Lab 39 (+1) Con 27 (-8) UKIP 22 (+19) LD 6 (-11)
Southampton Itchen: Lab 35 (-2) Con 27 (-9) UKIP 25 (+21) LD 10 (-11)
Telford: Lab 38 (-1) Con 28 (-8) UKIP 25 (+19) LD 4 (-11)
Walsall N: Lab 37 (nc) UKIP 32 (+27) Con 22 (-12) LD 5 (-8)
Wirral S: Lab 43 (+2) Con 30 (-9) UKIP 15 (+12) LD 6 (-11)

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/05/conservative-labour-battleground/

[YL]

Apparently the Sunday Times has a story that two Lib Dem MPs, John Pugh (Southport) and Adrian Sanders (Torbay) have called for Clegg to resign.

[YL]

It appears the Lib Dem member who commissioned the ICM constituency polls was Lord Oakeshott, a long standing Clegg critic often associated with Vince Cable.  I wonder whether he had an inkling that he'd get an interesting result in Hallam, or whether he just got lucky?

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Today's YouGov poll had Lab 36 Con 34 UKIP 14 LD 6 Green 5.  This is the lowest figure the company has ever shown for the Lib Dems, and it's in line with a trend of bad figures for them since the EU and local elections.

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Big reshuffle underway

Ken Clarke gone.
Hague to Leader of the House and standing down at the election.
Owen Paterson out.
David Jones gone from the Wales Office.
Lansley gone.

Also loads've sub-cabinet frontbenchers moving round.

A pretty noticeable step to the right coming up.

Hague is a surprise.  What's the speculation about who'll be replacing him at the Foreign Office?

Unlike Hague, Ken Clarke is not standing down as an MP.

[YL]

To answer my own question, apparently Philip Hammond is moving from Defence to the Foreign Office.

Paterson should never have been in that position in the first place.  He wasn't very good, and his views on climate change made a mockery of that "greenest government ever" line.

[YL]

David Ward, Lib Dem (for now) MP for Bradford East on Twitter: "The big question is - if I lived in #Gaza would I fire a rocket? Probably yes."

[YL]

Ward has issued what the Guardian calls a "partial apology" which it looks like may be enough to save his place in the Lib Dems, though perhaps he ought to try to think before tweeting:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/23/lib-dem-david-ward-apology-gaza-tweet

McMillan-Scott definitely stepped over the line IMO.

[YL]

David Tredinnick MP (Con, Bosworth) goes off on one again:
Astrology-loving MP seeks health answers in the stars

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[YL]

Baroness Warsi has resigned from the Government over Gaza:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28656874

[YL]

With the referendum on the UK remaining within the EU coming up in 2017, are there any recent polls on the subject?

YouGov ask about it from time to time.  Most recently, in their 10-11 August poll, they asked:

"If there was a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union, how would you vote?": Remain a member 40, Leave 38.

"Imagine that the British government under David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with Europe and said that Britain's interests were now protected, and David Cameron recommended that Britain remain a member of the European Union on the new terms.  How would you then vote in a referendum on the issue?": Remain a member 54, Leave 23.

Anyway, there may not be a referendum; it's only the Tories of the three main parties who want to hold one.

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I don't see a No win in the Scottish referendum having an effect.