UK General Discussion

[YL]

Universality is no longer possible in our society... nor in many cases desirable.

Defending universality seems to be unfashionable these days, but means testing has its problems too.  In particular in many cases I worry that people who actually should be receiving the benefits end up not doing so because they slip through the net somehow or are embarrassed to apply.  (It depends exactly how you run the system, I suppose.)  And if you're prepared to have a reasonably progressive tax system which raises enough money then that's probably less bureaucratic, and hence actually more efficient, than means testing.

Now, if we're not prepared to have such a tax system (and here is the problem I suppose) then I'm not going to defend universal benefits against health, education, transport, science, arts, etc.

[YL]

A group of particularly right-wing Tory MPs (with a curious concentration of constituencies in Northamptonshire) proposed an "alternative Queen's Speech".  It's mostly fairly predictable stuff: leave the EU (which seems to be in there twice, just in case), bring back the death penalty, reintroduce conscription, various climate change denial stuff.  They also want to rename the August Bank Holiday after a certain former Prime Minister who died recently.

[YL]

UKIP at 7 seems... odd.

Yes, hard to believe really for the current situation.  Though as a prediction of the next election result this poll may not be unreasonable.

[YL]

Unfortunately I don't think there is a "gold standard" at the moment.  ICM seem prone to wild swings (recent UKIP figures being a case in point) and have had some odd results, in particular a high BNP figure in their May poll apparently caused by overweighting one respondent, which is something which is going to cause wild swings.

I'm not necessarily a YouGov fan, but they're good for trends simply because they produce so much data.  And they show a slight UKIP decline (with the Tories benefitting) but nothing like what ICM show, and Labour still well ahead if not as high as I'd like them to be.

[YL]

David Ward, Lib Dem MP for Bradford East, has the whip removed after controversial comments about Israel.

It's just a temporary suspension, presumably effectively a "final warning".

[YL]

In other news, three Tory councillors in Havering (my home borough) have defected to UKIP, quadrupling their representation on the council.

The grammar nazi in me wants to know how those councilors quadrupled their votes, even tho I realize that you meant the UKIP quadrupled its representation on the council.  (Yes, I am aware that some English dialects use plural pronouns for groups, but even in that case, your pronoun choice is merely ambiguous instead of wrong.)

I think what he wrote is normal in British English.

Anyway, my image of Havering is of a rather UKIP-friendly sort of place, but of course the London election cycle means they haven't had a chance to establish themselves there in a full council election since they started polling well nationally.

[YL]

The economy has recuperated half it's recession losses. Now it might take a year or two for people to begin to 'feel' it but with a single digit Labour poll lead, low favourability ratings for Ed and two years to the election I'm feeling quietly confident.

The idea of this appalling government being re-elected is really quite depressing.

[YL]

Godfrey Bloom MEP opens his mouth again

[YL]

Comedy upper class Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg (the one who once campaigned in a General Election in Fife with his nanny) has apparently embarrassed himself a bit.

[YL]

Apparently two of the five Respect councillors on Bradford city council have been suspended from the party for opposing George Galloway's desire to be mayor of London.

[YL]

Indeed, you have to be middle class as well.

*sigh*

But still, personal statement as well as the interview count for much.

The interview is likely to be much more important than the personal statement, not that that removes concerns about people from certain types of backgrounds having an advantage.

Anyway, I wouldn't read much into this particular case.  The extra A levels may not have been thought very relevant to studying chemistry, and the Oxford colleges will be looking at lots of people who are getting straight A*s.

[YL]

Anyway, I wouldn't read much into this particular case.  The extra A levels may not have been thought very relevant to studying chemistry, and the Oxford colleges will be looking at lots of people who are getting straight A*s.

Biology, chemistry, physics, maths, further maths, Latin, and Greek - per the Belfast Telegraph

Are there any obviously relevant A levels he didn't do?

Not other A levels, no, but he'll have been being compared with other students who may have looked more impressive when it comes to chemistry specifically (they probably expect more than just A*) and that could have been preferred to taking Latin and Greek.  But obviously I don't know what the reasons actually were, or whether they were justifiable.

[YL]

Apparently two of the five Respect councillors on Bradford city council have been suspended from the party for opposing George Galloway's desire to be mayor of London.

... and now all five have resigned the whip in protest.

[YL]

So, just what was going on with Glenn Greenwald's partner at Heathrow yesterday?

[YL]

The 'Ed is crap' story of the last few weeks is gaining further traction with Alastair Darling being the newest name on the list of critics.

Several of these have had comments taken out of context.  (I don't know about Darling.)  Of the others, some fall in the "who cares?" category; I mean, why should anyone take any notice of Lord Glasman?

I don't, as it happens, think Ed Miliband is the best Leader of the Opposition ever.  But I see no evidence that any other realistic candidate would be any better, and the efforts of the left (in general) ought to be directed at defeating this thoroughly nasty and rather incompetent government rather than sniping at him.

[YL]

It isn't easy to measure media bias objectively,  but here's a study questioning the stuff you get from the Right about how biased against them the BBC is:
https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-how-biased-is-the-bbc-17028

[YL]

What a total screw-up by Cameron. Why on earth would he call this vote if he weren't sure of getting a majority?


Is there any list that shows which MPs voted yes/no? Wouldn't be surprised if some Tory ultra-right-wingers voted "no" just to embarass the PM.

Hansard has a full list.  (Find the Official Report, and it starts on p1551, followed by Bercow's "Order. Mr MacNeil, you are like an erupting volcano. Calm yourself, man!".)

There's a list of Tory and Lib Dem MPs who voted against here.  Some of the Tories are "usual suspects", people like David Davis and Richard Shepherd.  The MP the Tories selected via an open primary, Dr Sarah Wollaston (Totnes), who has been a bit of a maverick, is also on the list.  Two Lib Dems who currently don't have the whip, David Ward (Bradford East) and Mike Hancock (Portsmouth South) also voted against, and there were several abstentions, including Tim Farron.

I'm still puzzled about how the Government apparently failed to realise the motion was in trouble, given that I'd got the impression that it might be just from reading the Guardian's live blog and noticing how many Tories were making rebellious noises.

[YL]

Is there any clear pattern among the Tory no votes?  Would most of them be considered on the right wing? Eurosceptic? Are many from marginal seats?

I think the libertarian tendency is over-represented.  Some are from marginals (e.g. High Peak, Warwick & Leamington) but there's no particular tendency that way.

[YL]

Blair poisoned the well. It took is a generation to get over Suez and it will take the same to get over Iraq.

I think there is some truth in this, in that the Iraq debacle affected yesterday's outcome to some extent.  However, the Commons were perfectly happy to support intervention in Libya; the UK hasn't become totally isolationist.  To many of us, the case being made this week seems weak, not because we think Assad didn't commit atrocities, but because it's far from clear how our intervention would actually help the situation.

(I admit that I personally tend to be sceptical about the merits of military action in general, so I was never likely to be keen on this.  But with Libya there did seem to be a much clearer aim to the proposed intervention.)

 

[YL]

Ashdown has always been an interventionist; he even supported the Iraq war.

[YL]

Of course, not that I think there'll be a leadership challenge in any party before the election.

I would suggest that a party whose rating has more than halved from the last election in most polls and whose leadership seems to be busy repudiating the principles that got them a lot of those votes in the first place ought to be considering a leadership challenge, but I'm not holding my breath.

[YL]

Teather was a major star in the party (especially after the massive swing in the Brent East by-election when she gained it), although her position was looking dodgy in  Brent Central come 2015, IIRC.

Al can help here.

Nobody'll miss her.

It was her marriage vote that killed her off.

Yes, looking at the comments on Lib Dem Voice there seems to be a lot of hostility to her because of that, though she's getting some support too.

[YL]

Teather is an avatar of Beelzebub

What makes you say that?

(Genuine question, not rhetorical.)

[YL]

Evans has been charged with rape (and some other offences).  Best not to say any more at this stage.

[YL]

I don't normally like to cherry pick subsamples of polls, but as cherries on the other side of the tree get picked from time to time, here is today's YouGov 18-24 sample:
Lab 50
Con 29
Green 7
Lib Dem 6
UKIP 4
SNP/Plaid 2
Respect 1
Other other 1