UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[YL]

For the record, that is basically a party line vote between the Conservatives and the DUP vs the rest.

For the Government: 314 Tories plus 2 tellers, 10 DUP, plus Sylvia Hermon (Ind, North Down)

Against the government: everybody else, except the Speaker and Deputy Speakers, Sinn Féin, Paul Flynn (Lab, Newport West; too ill to attend the Commons), and three Independents who abstained, John Woodcock, Ivan Lewis and Fiona Onasanya.  Woodcock said he wasn't voting for No Confidence because of Corbyn.

[YL]

Fiona Onasanya, MP for Peterborough (elected as Labour but sitting as Independent since her conviction) has been sentenced to 3 months imprisonment for perverting the course of justice.

What this means:
- No automatic expulsion from Parliament (that would need a year's imprisonment).
- A recall petition can be started, and would need 10% of the electorate of the constituency to sign.  However, AIUI this has to wait until her appeal against the conviction is heard.
- She can't vote in the Commons while she's in prison.

[YL]

Fiona Onasanya, MP for Peterborough (elected as Labour but sitting as Independent since her conviction) has been sentenced to 3 months imprisonment for perverting the course of justice.

What this means:
- No automatic expulsion from Parliament (that would need a year's imprisonment).
- A recall petition can be started, and would need 10% of the electorate of the constituency to sign.  However, AIUI this has to wait until her appeal against the conviction is heard.
- She can't vote in the Commons while she's in prison.

I get that Onasanya herself clearly has an alternate view of reality - like comparing herself and her predicament to Jesus - and that some have an interest in her remaining so she can vote, but still, she should have the decency to at least resign her seat. I strongly hope there's at least an eventual recall.

Personally I lean towards saying that any MP who is convicted of an imprisonable offence should lose their seat.  If their constituents still want them as a representative, they can vote for them in the by-election.

[YL]

I was all too ready to gang up on the IG, since I do strongly suspect that at least Umunna's concern for antisemitism is a pretext and that the only thing he really cares about is making sure a real left-wing party will never win power in the UK (Berger is of course a different story and I do have a lot of sympathy for her), but Horus' posts in this thread and the general atmosphere that seems to be emanating out of it are pretty much proving them right. Congrats, people.

Yes, there's a really nasty (and, frankly, cult-like) element among Corbyn supporters which has been bullying some of these MPs (not just Berger, though she's probably been treated worst) and is showing itself up horribly in the reactions to this.

I still feel the MPs have made the wrong decision, and the fact that it's mainly said nasty element (and some Tories) who are celebrating is partly why.  But it's hard not to have a fair amount of sympathy for them.

Anyway, there are rumours that TIG will be gaining a few more members today.

[YL]

And those rumours appear to be correct.  Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston are leaving the Tories to join TIG.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/20/tory-mps-defect-independent-group-soubry-allen-wollaston

[YL]

Interesting chart. Do you know how they measured deprivation?

The standard way (in England): the Index of Multiple Deprivation.  You can see the 2015 figures mapped (at a much finer scale than constituency) here and the constituency data is here.

It's always worth pointing out that this says very little about how wealthy the non-deprived people in an area are.  Kensington is the classic example; it's actually quite deprived according to the IMD, but of course it is also very wealthy.  Even the bits of it where the wealth is (the south) don't have that low deprivation.

[YL]

I've been following Anna Soubry on Twitter since either the 2015 election or the 2017 election.  She's very impressive. She'd make a good leader for either this rump group or in a partnership with the Liberal Democrats.

I know Sinn Fein don't take their seats in Parliament, but with these 3 defections the Conservative and the DUP non-coalition now have 325 of the 650 seats in Parliament - a minority.

Arguably 324 given that Bercow (the Speaker) doesn’t really count.

It's a bit more complicated than that.  There are also three Deputy Speakers, who are usually counted with their parties, but by convention also don't vote.  Two of them (Lindsay Hoyle and Rosie Winterton) are Labour, and one (Eleanor Laing) is a Tory.  (Bercow being an ex-Tory means this balances out at least as far as Lab vs. Con is concerned.)

The current state of the parties given on the Parliament website is
Con 314 (this doesn't include Bercow, but does include Laing)
Lab 247 (this includes both Hoyle and Winterton)
SNP 35
Independent 19 (this includes the 11 TIGgers)
LD 11
DUP 10
Sinn Féin 7
Plaid 4
Green 1
Speaker 1
Vacant 1 (Newport West)

But actually the situation with the Deputy Speakers means that there are effectively 313 Tories and 245 Labour.

If you exclude Sinn Féin, the Speaker and Deputies, the Newport West vacancy, and Fiona Onasanya (Ind, Peterborough; currently in jail) then there are 637 voting MPs, and the Tories and DUP have 323 between them, a working majority of 9.

[YL]

Ian Austin, MP for Dudley North, has left Labour (no great surprise, as he hates Corbyn) but is not joining TIG (also no great surprise, as he has been fairly pro-Brexit).

So there are now 20 Independent MPs, 11 of them TIG.

[YL]

Chris Williamson, MP for Derby North and general embarrassment, has been suspended from the Labour Party.  He's been sailing a bit close to the wind on the anti-Semitism issue.

I think that means we now have 21 Independent MPs of various colours:
11 TIGgers
6 ex Labour MPs who won't be going back but who haven't joined TIG (Woodcock, Lewis, O'Mara, Austin, Onasanya*, Field)
2 suspended Labour MPs (Hopkins, Williamson)
1 ex Lib Dem MP (Lloyd)
1 elected as Independent, though originally Ulster Unionist (Hermon)

* who has now been released from jail, so can presumably vote again

[YL]

Oh wow.

So how is this going to go then? I imagine that Lab will make some gains front LinDems but bleed even more Leave vote to Con? Does any Brexit deal have a chance at passage now, or are we guaranteed a no deal?

We'll have to see what happens with Remain-backing Tories. Wednesday is going to be a big day.

Wait, what exactly will/may happen today.

Not a lot looks like the answer.  But there are going to be some important votes in a couple of weeks' time.

[YL]

Fiona Onasanya's appeal against her conviction failed today, so there will now be a recall petition in Peterborough.  It's likely to open within the next couple of weeks and run for six weeks; 10% of the electorate (which will mean 7000 or so; we'll find out exactly in the next few days) have to sign for a by-election to be triggered.

Will it pass?  I think the answer is that it probably will, but we can't be sure.  The only precedent is North Antrim, which failed but came close, but is in a rather different political culture.  The chances there were that the sitting MP would stand again and win, which definitely isn't the case this time.  I understand both Labour and the Tories are supporting recall, but it's still going to be something of an effort to get that much of the electorate to sign.

A Peterborough by-election might end up being TIG's first electoral outing, as they are now trying to get properly registered.  I presume they won't try to recruit any of the constituency's recent MPs.

[YL]

Seven opposition MPs voted with the Government: ex-Labour Independents Ian Austin (Dudley North) and Frank Field (Birkenhead), ex-LD Independent Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne), ex-UUP Independent Sylvia Hermon (North Down), and three Labour MPs, Kevin Barron (Rother Valley), Caroline Flint (Don Valley) and John Mann (Bassetlaw).  (Those last three constituencies border each other.)

All other opposition MPs, including TIG, DUP and the other Independents (including Fiona Onasanya) voted against the Government.

One Tory MP abstained, football referee Douglas Ross (Moray).  75 Tories voted against the Government.