US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[Dgov]

The district has to stay at least plurality black I would imagine. Besides that, it's convenient vote sink for various Democratic votes, so that's another reason it won't be tinkered with.

Actually, its the closest black-majority (or previously black-majority) district in the Country.  The dems did a good job in 2001 of creating this district.

Though in all honesty, getting it up past 50% won't be hard.  Durham and Raleigh both have plenty of Black voters the GOP would love to shove in that district, as it will shore up NC-2, and allow NC-4 to take more of the Liberal white parts of Raleigh from NC-13.

[Dgov]

Maybe, but you can ensure that both Shuler and McIntyre will 1) never be safe and 2) will vote Republican as often as possible.

And 3) Persuade them in so many words that they will find a brighter political future as newly minted Republicans.  

Which brings me to this question -what is the likelihood that either would switch parties, especially after redistricting?  

After Griffith?

Apparently numerous Democratic state legislators throughout the South (esp. in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia) weren't deterred by his example when they joined the GOP. 

Those reps were just Republicans who were only technically Ds because the Democrats controlled the chambers they were in and they wanted to be in the majority.  Republicans taking control of the State houses there basically removed any reason for those people to stay Democrats.

Shuler and McIntyre on the other hand, are much closer to the NC Democratic party.  I doubt they'd just switch, particularly if they're confident they can win anyway.

[Dgov]

What is all of this "fairness" chat about in the context of one party having control of drawing the lines? When that happens you gerrymander in this day and age (unless you are Mitch Daniels in Indiana who likes to play Mr. Nice Guy).

Even that map is sort of a Gerrymander, just a clean one (like Michigan but less skillful)

[Dgov]

in the next big dem wave election, hopefully this would be a dummymander

Its not likely to be.  Dummymanders usually involve spreading your voters too thin across multiple districts, and of the 10 Republican-leaning ones, I think they're all more Republican than any seat the Democrats currently hold in NC.  Even if Ellmers and Foxx lose, their seats will almost certainly be picked up by the Republicans again later on, simply because Democrats usually can't hold on to 55% McCain districts for very long.

Either way, the map is almost guaranteed to see a net Republican gain in seats, so in that way it's highly unlikely to wind up backfiring on the Republicans any time soon.