2012: America's Future Decided - The Romney Administration

[feeblepizza]

Bolton is a quack, Petraeus would never enorse him.  Honestly I can't see Petraeus straying into politics at all until his committment to the armed forces is complete.

Bolton is actually quite credible. And ITTL, Iraq is over and Afghanistan is winding down pretty quickly.

[feeblepizza]

January 1, 2012: Senator John McCain passes away at the age of 75. The Arizona Republican Party puts out a statement of condolence to the McCain family, and states that they will submit a list of candidates to Governor Brewer in one week.

John Sidney McCain III (August 22, 1936-January 1, 2012)

January 3, 2012: The Iowa Caucus results are in from both parties.....

Republican Caucus

Gingrich 19.3%
Romney 18.6%
Pence 14.7%
Cain 13.2%
Pawlenty 12.1%
Pataki 6.9%
Bolton 5.4%
Barbour 2.9%
Santorum 2.7%
Rossi 2.9%
Johnson 2.1%

Analysis - Romney had a short lead in the polls, but his downfall was obvious in the polls from coming months. Overall, there were no surprises among the results.

Republican Delegate Count - Gingrich (9), Romney ( 8 ), Pence (3), Cain (3), Pawlenty (2), Pataki (1), Bolton (1), Barbour (0), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Johnson (0)

Democratic Caucus

Bayh 44.6%
Obama 43.8%
Lieberman 10.1%
Other 1.5%

Analysis - Bayh's victory was not a surprise to most, as he had crept up on Obama all throughout the election. Lieberman's poor showing was unsurprising as well.

Democratic Delegate Count - Bayh (21), Obama (19), Lieberman (5)

January 8, 2012: Candidates to replace Senator McCain are Governor Jan Brewer, former Congressman J.D. Hayward, and former Vice-President Dan Quayle.

January 10, 2012: With the leaders in delegate count being Gingrich and Bayh, the race is heating up. New Hampshire, the "comeback state" in politics, is a glimmer of hope for the campaigns of Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. They're supporters fingers are crossed as the results come in....

Republican Primary

Romney 26.3%
Pataki 18.8%
Gingrich 11.1%
Rossi 9.2%
Pawlenty 7.9%
Pence 5.8%
Cain 5.2%
Johnson 5.1%
Bolton 4.5%
Santorum 4.4%
Barbour 1%
Other 0.7%

Analysis - Romney's comeback was a major step to success for his campaign, which had been failing for the past months. Gingrich's low numbers were expected.

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (15), Gingrich (10), Pence (3), Cain (3), Pawlenty (2), Pataki (2), Bolton (1), Barbour (0), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Johnson (0)

Democratic Primary

Obama 54.9%
Bayh 30.6%
Lieberman 22.3%
Other 2%

Analysis - President Obama's 24% victory was seen coming from a long way. Bayh and Lieberman came within 8% of each other.

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (34), Bayh (24), Lieberman ( 8 )

January 11, 2011: Republican candidate Gary Johnson announces that he is dropping his presidential campaign. He does not make an endorsement.


Please review!

[feeblepizza]

Overall a very nice update.  Why, though, did Leiberman do so strongly in New Hampshire?

He's New England's favorite son candidate.

[feeblepizza]

January 13, 2012: Governor Jan Brewer chooses herself as Arizona's next Senator. She resigns the day of the appointment, and State Attorney General Tom Horne (R) takes her place.

January 15, 2012: Jan Brewer now officially becomes a United States Senator.

January 17, 2012: Michigan Democrats vote today, and this time they have 130 delegates set firmly in place. The winner will be:

Bayh 44.2%
Obama 43.8%
Lieberman 11.9%

Democratic Delegate Count - Bayh (104), Obama (94), Lieberman ( 8 )

January 20, 2012: The Romney campaign is gaining momentum on the Republican side, while the Obama campaign is losing steam drastically. Nevada is the next race.

Republican Caucus

Romney 33.7%
Gingrich 19.1%
Pataki 4.1%
Pawlenty 3.8%
Pence 3.8%
Cain 2.3%
Rossi 1%
Santorum 0.3%
Barbour 0.2%
Bolton 0.1%

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (37), Gingrich (18), Pence (3), Cain (3), Pataki (3), Pawlenty (2), Bolton (1), Barbour (0), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Johnson (0)

Democratic Caucus

Bayh 49.8%
Obama 35.6%
Lieberman 13.9%

Democratic Delegate Count - Bayh (122), Obama (101), Lieberman ( 8 )

January 21, 2012: Herman Cain drops his campaign and endorses Mike Pence for President. He also gives all of his delegates to Pence, bumping his total to 6 (third place).

January 23, 2012: Senator Mark Warner (D-Va.) endorses Evan Bayh for President during a South Carolina rally: "I think that Evan stands for real change. The change that President Obama claimed to represent, but has never delivered."

Analysis (Michigan and Nevada) - The Democratic primary in Michigan was a huge boost for Bayh, who won mainly by campaigning on the economy. He campaigned on the economy in Nevada, also, therefore being able to appeal to the state's unemployed voters.

Mitt Romney used religious voters to his advantage in the Republican Caucus. He also attempted to use the economy, but without much ground.

Next Up - South Carolina. Thank you for your comments

[feeblepizza]

woot! Go Gingrich!!!!

Love the TL, and the fact that Pataki is a semi-player. And that there's a democratic primary. Overall...great!

A little surprised Jindal didn't endorse Gingrich considering his dad is closeish with him...

Jindal isn't his dad, is he?

[feeblepizza]

January 24, 2012: For the past months, candidates have been assaulting the Palmetto State with their messages, whether they have nonstop 24 hour ad campaigns (Gingrich) or have been sending special campaigners every day (Romney and Pence). Whatever the case, South Carolina will be interesting for the Republicans, to say the least....

Republican Primary

Gingrich 44.4%
Romney 15.2%
Pence 15.1%
Barbour 6.9%
Pawlenty 6.8%
Bolton 4.9%
Santorum 3.7%
Rossi 1.8%
Pataki 1.2%

Analysis - Gingrich's victory was predicted all through the campaign season. Romney's sad second place was surprising, however, due to his support from Haley and DeMint.

Republican Delegate Count - Gingrich (47), Romney (30), Pence (6), Pataki (3), Pawlenty (2), Bolton (1), Barbour (0), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Johnson (0)

Democratic Primary

Obama 56.6%
Bayh 36.9%
Lieberman 7.2%

Analysis - Obama's victory was facilitated by the African-American vote. It had been predicted by most polls, though it was usually closer. His win was good, but not good enough to give him a lead.

Democratic Delegate Count - Bayh (134), Obama (113), Lieberman ( 8 )

January 25, 2012: Congressman Mike Pence announces that he will no longer be a presidential candidate. He endorses Newt Gingrich for President.

January 26, 2012: Rick Santorum also drops his presidential candidate in favor of Gingrich.

January 27, 2012: Governor Haley Barbour drops his presidential bid and endorses Newt Gingrich.

January 31, 2012: The Republican will have to wait until Super Tuesday to decide their fate, but the Democrats have Florida to look forward to. The winner is:

Bayh 51.1%
Obama 24.3%
Lieberman 23.9%

Analysis - Bayh won by campaigning on ObamaCare, which was stiffly opposed even by most Florida Democrats. Lieberman performed in his best showing yet, raking in almost 24% of the vote and coming very close to second place.

Democratic Delegate Count - Bayh (297), Obama (123), Lieberman (17)


Next up - SUPER TUESDAY!!!!

Will it be Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney? Barack Obama or Evan Bayh? We'll in the next post.

Thanks for reading! Please comment!

[feeblepizza]

How is Bayh winning?

Bayh is winning because he's campaigning on the terrible state of the economy and on ObamaCare, which is unpopular among even Democrats. But don't make assumptions just yet

[feeblepizza]

February 6, 2012: One day away from Super Tuesday, and the Republican front-runners, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, are both fighting for their political futures. President Obama is losing steam in his fight to be renominated. Whoever scores the biggest, the race will be interesting...

Super Tuesday - Democratic Map

Red = Obama, Blue = Bayh

Democratic Delegate Count - Bayh (1049), Obama (1029), Lieberman (35)

Analysis - Bayh still has the upper hand, as it looks as if his attacks against ObamaCare and on the 10% unemployment rate are doing him some good.


Super Tuesday - Republican Map

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (306), Gingrich (152), Pawlenty (22), Pataki (11), Bolton (7), Rossi 0, Pence 6, Santorum 0, Barbour 0, Johnson 0

Analysis - Romney has retaken his early lead with and asserted himself, once again, as the front-runner, having won all U.S. territories and all but five states so far.

February 8, 2012: Senator Joe Lieberman announces that he is withdrawing his presidential bid and endorsing Evan Bayh.

George Pataki also drops his presidential bid to endorse Mitt Romney: "Mitt is clearly the front-runner, and will clearly make a great Commander-in-Chief."

February 9, 2012: Tim Pawlenty announces that he will stay in the race, as he has made significant progress compared to earlier races. John Bolton also says that he will stay. Dino Rossi, however, terminates his campaign.

[feeblepizza]

February 14, 2012: The Republicans have no more contests until Maryland and Kentucky vote on March 6, but the Democrats (the resilient Bayh and the wounded Obama) have five more post-Tuesday contests today. The Obama campaigns hopes are set in Louisiana, Washington, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where they hope to make comebacks.

Louisiana

Obama 57.5%
Bayh 36.1%

Maine

Obama 59.1%
Bayh 40.6%

Washington

Obama 49.6%
Bayh 49.4%

Nebraska

Bayh 68.3%
Obama 32.5%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1139), Bayh (1135), Lieberman (35)

Now President Obama is leading in delegates for the first time since the New Hampshire primary in January - even if his lead is by 4 delegates.

February 17, 2012: Senator Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) files papers to run for reelection in Connecticut's Republican Senate primary. He also changes his caucus affiliation to Republican, giving the GOP a new 52-47 majority (John Kerry's seat has remained vacant since his resignation to become SOS). He says, however, that he will remain loyal to the Bayh campaign.

February 21, 2012: In the "Potomac Primary" Evan Bayh hopes to replenish his delegate count by winning Virginia. President Obama remains confident that he can sweep the primaries. The results....

District of Columbia

Obama 91.3%
Bayh 9.6%

Maryland

Obama 61%
Bayh 39.9%

Virginia

Bayh 50.1%
Obama 49.4%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1237), Bayh (1204), Lieberman (35)

Obama maintains the lead, although Bayh does manage to win Virginia by razor thin margins. At this point, most believe that the nomination is Bayh's to lose (Obama will climb up the delegate ladder slowly but surely). But - who knows?

February 24, 2012: With four days to go until the next set of primaries, Evan Bayh assaults the state of Wisconsin with anti-Obama ads, focusing on Bayh's two issues: the economy and healthcare. Most say that Obama "lied about changing things" and was a "false prophet." When polled, 39% say that the ads changed their vote. When further polled, 50% say that they will vote for Bayh, as opposed to 47% who will vote for Obama.

February 28, 2012: The next contests (in Hawaii and Wisconsin)...

Hawaii

Obama 93.9%
Bayh 6.1%

Wisconsin

Bayh 52.9%
Obama 47.3%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1291), Bayh (1244), Lieberman (35)

[feeblepizza]

Look, Obama needs to be the democratic nominee. Don't most other readers of this timeline agree with me on that?

I agree.

I agree that it's not very realistic. I just don't see how Bayh and Lieberman could be getting the combined percentages between them that you gave them. I mean, 50% of the Democratic Primary electorate are not centrist, fiscal hawks. Obama is probably going to be in some trouble in 2012, but i really don't see TWO centrist/moderates competing against him and being successful. Unemployment would have to be about 15-18%, and Obama would likely just not run for reelection at that point. MAYBE if one centrist challenged Obama, they MIGHT be successful. But President Obama only getting 24% in Florida in a Democratic primary?! That's a big leap from where we're at right now, IMO.

ITTL, unemployment inches closer and closer to 11%. Most Democrats are voting for Bayh and Lieberman as a protest vote due to being disenchanted by the corrupt failure that is the Obama Administration.

[feeblepizza]

Look, Obama needs to be the democratic nominee. Don't most other readers of this timeline agree with me on that?

I agree.

I agree that it's not very realistic. I just don't see how Bayh and Lieberman could be getting the combined percentages between them that you gave them. I mean, 50% of the Democratic Primary electorate are not centrist, fiscal hawks. Obama is probably going to be in some trouble in 2012, but i really don't see TWO centrist/moderates competing against him and being successful. Unemployment would have to be about 15-18%, and Obama would likely just not run for reelection at that point. MAYBE if one centrist challenged Obama, they MIGHT be successful. But President Obama only getting 24% in Florida in a Democratic primary?! That's a big leap from where we're at right now, IMO.

ITTL, unemployment inches closer and closer to 11%. Most Democrats are voting for Bayh and Lieberman as a protest vote due to being disenchanted by the corrupt failure that is the Obama Administration.

Yes, but still, most Democrats are probably not going to see the Obama Administration as a "corrupt failure", or be motivated enough to vote for a 70 year old man or a Democrat In Name Only. You have to accept the fact that Democrats are liberals and there is a small minority among them that are fiscally conservative, not the other way around.

Look at the bold text

[feeblepizza]

2010 SENATE RESULTS
Alabama...Richard Shelby (R) has been reelected with 66% of the vote

Alaska...........Lisa Murkowski (R) has been reelected with 41% of the vote

Arizona.........John McCain (R) has been reelected with 65% of the vote

Arkansas.......John Boozman (R) has defeated Blanche Lincoln (D) in her reelection bid with 67% of the vote

California.......Barbara Boxer (D) has been reelected with 52% of the vote

Colorado........Ken Beck (R) has defeated Michael Bennett (D) in his reelection bid with 51% of the vote

Connecticut....Richard Blumenthal (D) has taken an open seat with 50% of the vote

Delaware........Chris Coons (D) has taken an open seat with 47% of the vote

Florida.............Marco Rubio (R) has taken an open seat with 49% of the vote

Georgia............Johnny Isakson (R) has been reelected with 68% of the vote

Hawaii..............Daniel Inouye (D) has been reelected with 76% of the vote

Idaho...............Mike Crapo (R) has been reelected with 70% of the vote

Illinois...............Mike Kirk (R) has taken an open seat with 53% of the vote

Indiana.............Dan Coats (R) has taken an open seat with 50% of the vote

Iowa..................Chuck Grassley (R) has been reelected with 61% of the vote

Kansas...............Jerry Moran (R) has taken an open seat with 66% of the vote

Kentucky.............Rand Paul (R) has taken an open seat with 55% of the vote

Louisiana.............David Vitter (R) has been reelected with 54% of the vote

Maryland..............Barbara Mikulski (D) has been reelected with 58% of the vote

More 2010 results next! Please make comments

No to Murkowski. It'll be Joe Miller. And add 10% for Dan Coats and Chris Coons.

Yes, Murkowski will win. And Coats will JUST get by, while Delaware polls show that 22% will vote for third-party candidates.

[feeblepizza]

March 6, 2012: Today could be the defining moment in the Democratic primaries. Evan Bayh's future could be sealed, or President Obama could go down in history as a primaried President. Which future will come true? The results from Ohio, Vermont, Rhode Island, and Texas are coming in....

Ohio

Obama 53.9%
Bayh 45%

Vermont

Obama 89.7%
Bayh 9.8%

Rhode Island

Obama 88.2%
Bayh 11.3

Texas

Bayh 49.5%
Obama 49.4%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1529), Bayh (1408), Lieberman 35

On the Republican side, contests are taking place in Maryland and Kentucky:

Maryland

Gingrich 44.1%
Romney 38.2%
Pawlenty 10.5%
Bolton 6.9%

Kentucky

Gingrich 59.1%
Romney 20.4%
Pawlenty 11.9%
Bolton 8.5%

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (317), Gingrich (223), Pawlenty (22), Bolton (7), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Rossi (0), Santorum (0), Barbour (0), Johnson 0

It seems as if President Obama is on a track to being renominated, fairly easily now. Gingrich is now creeping up on Mitt Romney's lead.


Thanks for your comments and criticism! Keep reading and please reply more

[feeblepizza]

Romney would probably win Maryland. This is probably the first timeline I've seen for 2012 that has Gingrich winning. He's also the heavy favorite on President Forever, not that it means anything.

After all, Gingrich won by only 6 points. It wasn't a landslide or anything. And Romney still got a good chunk of the delegates.

[feeblepizza]

Yes, Murkowski will win. And Coats will JUST get by, while Delaware polls show that 22% will vote for third-party candidates.

Once more: No to Sen. Lisa Murkowski [R-Alaska]. Write-in vote won't put her over the top. Alaska has not yet elected a U.S. Senator outside the Republican-vs.-Democratic party duopoly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Senators_from_Alaska



Dan Coats is polling in the upper-50s%, and will landslide Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Indiana #08) to flip U.S. Senate seat from Indiana held by two-term Evan Bayh from Democratic to Republican column.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/senate/indiana


And Delaware is not going to stop at 78 percent of the combined vote, only, for the Republican-vs.-Democratic matchup of Christine O'Donnell and Chris Coons, who is likely to hold the Senate seat previously occupied by Vice President Joe Biden and warmed by Ted Kaufman.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/senate/delaware

Just because Murkowski is running a write-in campaign doesn't mean that she will enter the Senate as an independent. She is by all means still a Republican.

And of what relevance are the New York Times articles?

[feeblepizza]

March 13, 2012: Today is the Special Election to fill U.S. State Secretary John Kerry's Senate seat. The Republican nominee is Charlie Baker (who defeated Kerry Healey and Bill Weld) and the Democratic nominee is none other than Governor Deval Patrick (who defeated Martha Coakely and Tim Cahill, both of whom were desperate for a political comeback). The election was marked a toss-up. Mitt Romney and Scott Brown campaigned on the side of Baker (although they had both endorsed Healey during the primary) and President Obama campaigned for Patrick. The moment of truth comes near.....

Baker 54.7%
Patrick 44.8%

Now, Massachusetts has two Republican Senators, something that has not happened since the 1960s.

Besides, the Senate election is the Mississippi Democratic primary and the Republican contests in Wisconsin and Alabama.

Mississippi

Obama 65.8%
Bayh 33.8%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1550), Bayh (1420), Lieberman (35)

On the Republican side, Wisconsin and Alabama are voting.

Wisconsin

Romney 49.6%
Gingrich 23.1%
Pawlenty 21.9%
Bolton 3.9%

Alabama

Gingrich 51.7%
Romney 20.1%
Bolton 16%
Pawlenty 11%

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (368), Gingrich (251), Pawlenty (25), Bolton (16), Pataki (11), Pence 6, Santorum (0), Barbour (0), Johnson (0), Rossi (0)

President Obama is now asserting himself as the leader, while Gingrich is 117 delegates behind Romney. Pawlenty has gained a measly three delegates from Wisconsin, and John Bolton has just achieved double digits.


Tomorrow - Republican races in Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri (March 20-27)

Keep reading/commenting

[feeblepizza]

I would think Romney would get Maryland and Gingirch would win Wisconsin.

Also, how would it be possible for Bolton to 1) last this long and 2) pull off these numbers?

He's stubborn, and his biggest win was in the hawkish Alabama.

[feeblepizza]

March 20, 2012: With Newt Gingrich's surprise 6-point victory in Maryland, the Romney campaign was put on the defensive. They began preparing for losses in the Southern states, which would make up all of the primaries until April 3, with Mississippi and Louisiana voting on the 20th and Arkansas and Missouri voting on the 27th.

Mississippi

Gingrich 52.3%
Romney 20.1%
Pawlenty 19.8%
Bolton 6.4%

Louisiana

Gingrich 44.5%
Romney 28.3%
Pawlenty 20.6%
Bolton 6.1%

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (369), Gingrich (304), Pawlenty (26), Bolton (17), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Santorum (0), Barbour (0), Johnson (0), Rossi (0)

March 27, 2012: The Romney campaign's delegate count has barely budged, and the newest primaries don't seem too kind, either........

Arkansas

Gingrich 62.7%
Romney 20.3%
Pawlenty 10.7%
Bolton 5.8%

Missouri

Gingrich 44.4%
Romney 31.8%
Pawlenty 13.8%
Bolton 9.9%

Republican Delegate Count - Gingrich (393), Romney (369), Pawlenty (26), Bolton (17), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Santorum (0), Barbour (0), Johnson (0), Rossi (0)

New Gingrich has now taken the lead, just as the Romney campaign had feared. However, most say that his lead will be temporary until the Minnesota and Kansas contests on April 3.

March 29, 2012: During a CNN interview, Tim Pawlenty says that he will stay in the race until Minnesota votes. "I will only stay in the race if I can get at least half of Minnesota's delegates."

Most pundits agree that Pawlenty will be staying in the race for awhile, as he is coming in ahead of Gingrich for second place behind Romney in most polls.

[feeblepizza]

Why does every single 2012 TL on this site have to be a conservative wank where Obama gets primary challenges from multiple unknown blue dogs?

This is the first one that I'm aware of.

Lieberman and Bayh unknown? LOLNO

[feeblepizza]

Why does every single 2012 TL on this site have to be a conservative wank where Obama gets primary challenges from multiple unknown blue dogs?

This is the first one that I'm aware of.

Lieberman and Bayh unknown? LOLNO

I'll give you Lieberman. A few smart people might remember him as Gore's running mate ten years ago. However, asking the average person on the street (outside of Indiana) who Evan Byah is will hardly wield good results.

His father (and himself) were presidential candidates, and were both on VP shortlists

[feeblepizza]

Why does every single 2012 TL on this site have to be a conservative wank where Obama gets primary challenges from multiple unknown blue dogs?

This is the first one that I'm aware of.

Lieberman and Bayh unknown? LOLNO

I'll give you Lieberman. A few smart people might remember him as Gore's running mate ten years ago. However, asking the average person on the street (outside of Indiana) who Evan Byah is will hardly wield good results.

if you're so upset by 2012 TL's, then get creative and write your own. I was just going down the list, looking for "Odysseus" threads. Strangely, I don't see any.

Thank you, bawlexus.

[feeblepizza]

April 3, 2012: As Minnesota and Kansas vote, the Romney campaign is ecstatic for a comeback; the Gingrich campaign is heavily anticipating a win in Kansas; and the Pawlenty campaign is steeling itself for the worst.

Minnesota

Romney 32.1%
Pawlenty 31.7%
Gingrich 29.4%
Bolton 4.6%

Kansas

Gingrich 32.9%
Romney 30.8%
Pawlenty 29.5%
Bolton 7.1%

Republican Delegate Count - Gingrich (417), Romney (395), Pawlenty (48), Bolton (17), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Barbour (0), Johnson (0)

Romney has now thrown himself back into the game after recovering from March's southern voters. Tim Pawlenty has just short of 50 delegates, and isn't expected to perform very well in the next primaries - Oklahoma and Texas.

April 5, 2012: Unemployment at 10.4% after a long standstill

April 10, 2012: Now, the Romney campaign is preparing for a major blow.

Oklahma

Gingrich 61.7%
Romney 19.4%
Pawlenty 15.9%
Bolton 2.8%

Texas

Gingrich 39.9%
Romney 30.6%
Pawlenty 15.5%
Bolton 13.8%

Republican Delegate Count - Gingrich (509), Romney (429), Pawlenty (48), Bolton (17), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Barbour (0), Johnson (0)

April 11, 2012: Tim Pawlenty makes an announcement at his home in Minnesota: "I have decided that it is best to discontinue my campaign for the presidency. This far into the race, it has become apparent that I will not make anymore gains worthwhile. I am giving my wholehearted endorsement to Mitt Romney."

April 17, 2012: Mitt Romney enters favorable territory when it comes to the Utah and Colorado primaries, while the Democrats host their first primary for a long while - the Pennsylvania primary.

Utah

Romney 96.7%
Gingrich 2.9%
Bolton 0.1%

Colorado

Romney 68.3%
Gingrich 26.2%
Bolton 3.3%

Republican Delegate Count - Gingrich (509), Romney (487), Bolton (17), Pawlenty (48), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Barbour (0), Johnson (0)

Mitt Romney is still gaining momentum, with crushing, take-all victories in Utah and Colorado. It seems apparent to most onlookers that a Romney victory will be inevitable.

Now, on the Democratic side, President Obama seems to have Pennsylvania under his belt, according to the polls....

Pennsylvania

Obama 59.9%
Bayh 39.9%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1628), Bayh (1467), Lieberman (35)

Now, President Obama is exactly 582 delegates away from being renominated. Evan Bayh's lead is long gone, and most think it can never be recovered.

April 18, 2012: John Bolton drops his campaign and endorses Mitt Romney for President.


Thanks for reading! Keep commenting/criticizing!

[feeblepizza]

April 23, 2012: With one day to go until the Republican primary in Oregon and the caucus in Washington, Senator Dino Rossi has been campaigning nonstop for Mitt Romney. Most say that Rossi's campaigning has pulled off, as Romney is leading massively.

April 24, 2012: The results are in from Washington and Oregon....

Washington Caucus

Romney 64.3%
Gingrich 35.2%

Oregon Primary

Romney 59.6%
Gingrich 40.3%

Republican Delegate Count - , Romney (529), Gingrich (514), Pawlenty (48), (Bolton (17), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Santorum (0), Barbour (0), Johnson (0), Rossi (0)

Romney's lead has now returned, by 15 delegates. At this point, the GOP nomination could go to either candidate. May 8 will see contests in four states for Republicans and two states for Democrats.

May 8, 2012: Republican contests in Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Indiana.....

Massachusetts

Romney 69.9%
Gingrich 29.8%

Connecticut

Romney 65.2%
Gingrich 34.6%

New Jersey

Romney 54.3%
Gingrich 45.5%

Indiana

Gingrich 54.8%
Romney 44.9%

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (617), Gingrich (572), Pawlenty (48), (Bolton (17), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Santorum (0), Barbour (0), Johnson (0), Rossi (0)

The Democrats are hosting primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.....

Indiana

Bayh 52.8%
Obama 47%

North Carolina

Obama 56.9%
Bayh 40.1%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1729), Bayh (1553), Lieberman (35)

President Obama is now only 481 delegates away from being renominated. Former Governor Howard Dean of Vermont, an Obama campaigner, called upon Bayh to drop out to avoid dividing the party; Bayh responded by stating that he would drop out when President Obama gained 2,210 delegates.

[feeblepizza]

May 15, 2012: With the primary season drawing to an end, most say that the Democratic race is sealed up for Obama, while the Republican race (although currently being dominated by Romney) is still wide open. The Republicans are having primaries in Tennessee, North Carolina, California, and Arizona; West Virginia Democrats also vote today....

Tennessee

Gingrich 64.7%
Romney 36.1%

North Carolina

Gingrich 58.8%
Romney 41.9%

California

Romney 51.7%
Gingrich 49%

Arizona

Romney 49.8%
Gingrich 49.1%

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (744), Gingrich (706), Pawlenty (48), Bolton (17), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Barbour (0), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Johnson (0)

Now Romney has retaken the lead. He is only 447 delegates away from gaining the nomination; Gingrich is 485. The race could go either way....

The Democratic results from West Virginia are in:

Bayh 55.9%
Obama 43.9%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1737), Bayh (1576), Lieberman (35)

May 19, 2012: The Republican Party has agreed to host one more primary between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. The host channel will be FOX and the debate will be held on June 5, the day of Republican primaries in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Georgia. The sponsoring organization with be the Independent Womens' Voice.

May 22, 2012: Today the Democrats are hosting two more primaries, this time in Kentucky and Oregon. Voter turnout is expected to be low, as most see that Obama will be the victor in any case. At this point, Bayh would have to win almost every primary left to gain the nomination.

Kentucky

Bayh 66.8%
Obama 33.1%

Oregon

Obama 54.8%
Bayh 46%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1781), Bayh (1634), Lieberman (35)

Even with a landslide victory in Kentucky and a close defeat in Oregon, the Bayh campaign is still in need of assistance. Thus, its friend Senator Joseph Lieberman (R-Conn.) announces that he will be giving all of his delegates to Bayh: "It is essential that Democrats turn out a nominee who stands by America's best interests."

Bayh now has a total of 1669 delegates - he still trails Obama by 112 delegates, and still needs 541 delegates to win the nomination. Obama, on the other hand, needs 429, a feat that most say will be accomplished very, very soon.


Next up - The GOP debate and more primaries!!!! Please comment!

[feeblepizza]

May 25, 2012: The Democratic Party also announces that they will hold a debate on June 1, hosted on CNN. The sponsoring organization will be the ACLU.

June 1, 2012: The last primary debates are held today: the Republicans debate in New York City, at FOX headquarters. Newt Gingrich blasted Romney on healthcare and the economy. Romney came back by pointing to Gingrich's ethics cases in the past. 39% said that Gingrich won the debate, while 37% say Romney won; 24% report that they are undecided or have no opinion.

In Atlanta at the CNN headquarters, Evan Bayh unleashed his final attack: he attacked the climbing unemployment rate and the ever increasingly unpopular healthcare bill. President Obama seemed weak in comparison, still blaming Bush and pointing to "hope." 46% of Democrats say that Bayh won, while 31% say that Obama won.

Romney is leading Gingrich 45-43, while President Obama leads Bayh 49-45. In general election polls, Romney leads Obama 44-43, and leads Bayh 49-39. Newt Gingrich is losing to Obama 50-39, but beating Evan Bayh 39-38.

June 5, 2012: Republicans have a big day ahead of them, while the Democrats are voting in Montana and South Dakota.

Pennsylvania

Romney 54.3%
Gingrich 46.1%

Ohio

Romney 50.1%
Gingrich 49.8%

Michigan

Romney 58.6%
Gingrich 43.1%

Illinois

Gingrich 50.1%
Romney 49.7%

Georgia

Gingrich 69.7%
Romney 30.1%

Republican Delegate Count - Romney (892), Gingrich (870), Pawlenty (48), Bolton (17), Pataki (11), Pence (6), Barbour (0), Santorum (0), Rossi (0), Johnson (0)

Now Mitt Romney is only 299 delegates away from the nomination. Gingrich is 321 away.

The Democrats are also holding contests in Montana and South Dakota...

Montana

Bayh 52.1%
Obama 47.8%

South Dakota

Bayh 53.4%
Obama 47.8%

Democratic Delegate Count - Obama (1897), Bayh (1684)

ALL DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES/CAUCUSES ARE OVER - ALL NEW  COUNTY CAUCUSES WILL OCCUR ON JUNE 12


Please comment