Vosem's 2014 Senate Elections Analysis

[Del Tachi]

In Mississippi, the most likely contenders for the seat on the Republican side seem to be Rep. Gregg Harper (R, MS-3) or Sec. of State Delbert Hosemann.  Hosemann has essentially been campaigning for the seat since last year, going around the state securing several high-profile speaking engagements and doing fundraisers.  Harper's a bit more low-profile, but I seriously doubt his campaign would run into any problems if he decided to jump into the race.  A Harper/Hosemann race could prove to be interesting with Harper promising to be more of fresh face and attacking Hosemann as a "Cochran clone".  Harper's also a good bit younger than Hosemann, which may play into voters' minds--the Mississippi electorate likes to elect Senators who will be able to stay there for a good, long while.  The race could further be complicated by the entry of other candidates including Lt. Governor Tate Reeves, former Lt. Governor Amy Tuck (barring rumors of her sexuality) or Federal Reserve Board chairman and 2011 gubernatorial candidate Dave Dennis.  An interesting primary will ensue regardless, with Mississippi voters given the chance to "buck" our state's history of sending porkers to D.C.

On the Democratic side its a bit less interesting, mostly because the MS Democratic party is approaching laughing stock material.  Names to watch would include Fmr. Governor Ronnie Musgrove, fmr. Governor and Sec. of the Navy Ray Mabus, or former Congressmen Travis Childers and Gene Taylor.  I think Mabus would be the best choice because, despite their hyperpartisan record, any candidate sounds good when he has the title "Secretary of the Navy".  If he ran, Mabus would probably not face serious opposition in the primary.

Of course, all of this is operating under the assumption that Cochran will choose to retire in '14; some recent reports from those operating close to the Senator claim that they may not be the case.  Cochran loves to buck the Mississippi political establishment, and all of this talk of the Senator retiring may actually make him not want to retire.  I think we will have a lot clearer picture after this year's elections.  If the GOP finds itself as the majority party come January, Cochran will stay on through 2014 in order to milk his four years left as Appropriations chairman.  If the Democrats keep their majority, Cochran most likely leaves in 2014.

The dynamics of a sans-Cochran 2014 race could be interesting.  I see a Harper/Mabus or Reeves/Mabus match-up and incredibly competitive--especially for a state that is not use to very close elections.

If Mabus is the Democratic nominee, regardless of who the Republican is, I am a likely Mabus voter.  And that's coming from Senator Cochran's number one fan.