King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
Posts: 29,356
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« on: April 15, 2010, 04:22:33 PM » |
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« edited: April 15, 2010, 04:27:44 PM by King »
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Pearce has the edge because Pearce has Oil & Gas on his side while Harry Teague has Dairy. That's basically how NM South works. Dairy gets 45% of vote, O&G gets 55% of the vote. Last election Teague was a rare oil man Democrat while Ed Tinsley was a joke. His vote on the energy bill last year doomed him.
In the Lujan-Kokesh thing, it's important to keep in mind that there's a strong Hispanic and Native American rural back country that most pollsters tend to miss and who turn out in force for the Democrat. Lujan is only leading 40-32 in Santa Fe and Farmington, but he's leading 90-10 everywhere else. Kokesh would have to run a hell of a campaign to win and that's something Libertarians are incapable of doing.
In NM-01, the incumbent will win by 5% as all incumbents from NM-01 do until they decide to retire.
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