2012 NDP leadership convention

[RogueBeaver]

Quebec: BC still has 30,000 though. And even if Quebec continues expanding at their current rate they won't catch up. Long-term, Quebecers don't become party members regardless of party- even the BQ.

Liberals: They're having primaries, so presumably they'll sell a few more memberships.

[RogueBeaver]

Personally, I'm hoping Nash wins.

[RogueBeaver]

Ducasse endorsed Nash today.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/author-of-sherbrooke-declaration-backs-nash-for-ndp-leader/article2244831/

[RogueBeaver]

Topp secures two heavyweights, including one potential future leader (Boulerice). While also giving us lots of attack-ad fodder.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2011/11/28/ndp-candidate-brian-topp-unveils-tax-plan/

http://davidakin.blogware.com/blog/_archives/2011/11/25/4946817.html

[RogueBeaver]

Who the heck decided that Boulerice was leadership mat?

Have you seen him in QP? I said "potential", not certain. Quite impressive for a frosh.

[RogueBeaver]

So, the first debate is on Sunday afternoon at the convention centre. It's first come, first serve and it's free. I'll have to try and go.

Should be fun. Unfortunately I have an exam on Monday, so I'll have to read the recaps Monday afternoon. Play a drinking game, take a shot someone mentions "taxes" or "Sherbrooke."

On another note, who gives a rat's ass about Martin Singh's "real" name? It's the same crap that Peq trolls play with Charest's name.

[RogueBeaver]

Personally I'm hoping that Nash wins. Though Topp's tax proposals make him an attractive second choice for we Tories.

[RogueBeaver]

Nash picked up Savoie's endorsement this week, so another big name for her.

[RogueBeaver]

Sibboleth is right. Except "those people" will determine OO in 2015 and who will form government when the pendulum swings in '19 or '23.

[RogueBeaver]

On another note, did anyone catch Dewar's idea to restore the subsidy and use it on a "nominating female candidates" curve? Wonder what resident Dippers think.

[RogueBeaver]

Nominations happen at the riding level. I think it's wrong to tell voters in those nomination meetings that they are somehow "bad people" - and that's the implication - for voting for a man. In fact, if Dewar is serious, he should drop out and endorse Ashton or Nash.

Agreed. You can extend this "logic" to other ID groups as well. Say, you get more tax dollars for LGBT, handicapped, aboriginals, etc. The whole thing is moronic, especially since the NDP already nominates the most female candidates of all the parties due to internal rules. If you want an affirmative action nomination process that overrides a local one, then use party rules and not taxpayer money, thanks.

[RogueBeaver]

The sort of people who might react in horror to the prospect of a party leader with union ties are the sort of people who will not vote for a social democratic party under any circumstances. End of.

I disagree. PEI especially is a place where this is untrue. In PEI a "Social Democrat" is a "really really left-wing person but someone I might stomach if I REALLY have to..." where as a Socialist is a "COMMUNIST OMG STALIN! STALIN!!! ARREST HIM!!!" and a Union Man is a "COMMUNIST OMG, STALIN! OR WAIT IS IT HITLER? OMG"

Almost as bad as the US! 

Were that the case there would be no NDP.

[RogueBeaver]

Topp said he won't run in Toronto-Danforth.

He also said than he wants to run in a Quebec riding if elected leader.

So who's going to vacate their seat?

[RogueBeaver]

Both Topp and Mulcair were booed at last night's debate.

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/politics/2011/12/10/ndp-hopefuls-take-stage-vowing-defeat-stephen-harper-how

[RogueBeaver]

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/politics/2011/12/11/peggy-nash-nets-ndps-top-endorsement-laytons-finance-critic?page=0%2C0

Funny that the newspapers all think Nash is rather left wing

Maybe because she is very much an Old Labour-type in every sense of the word?

[RogueBeaver]

I'm not just talking ideology (Topp is also running on raising taxes) but a cultural style. Not the urban prog image Layton expertly cultivated when he was leader.

[RogueBeaver]

Well, they will most likely be choosing either Topp or Mulcair. Nash would need an urban prog image makeover to sell here IMO.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/quebec-born-leaders-give-federal-parties-a-significant-electoral-edge/article2267922/

[RogueBeaver]

She understood a thing about Quebec, at least.

In Quebec news, she decided to complain about her fellow candidates which aren't bilingual, saying it is making no sense to run if you don't really talk French.

Valid complaints, so long as she remembers that she'll need their delegates in March.

[RogueBeaver]

Quebec is still volatile. NDP lost their lead for the first time since May, now tied with the Bloc at 26 apiece. Grits 20, Tories 17.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-in-free-fall-in-quebec-poll-finds/article2271529/

[RogueBeaver]

Wells: I'm unsure whether anyone but Mulcair can hold Quebec.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/12/14/quebecs-not-making-it-easier-for-the-ndp-to-pick-a-leader/

[RogueBeaver]

The thing is Mulcair is very difficult to deal with and is volatile and if he became leader he could sef-destruct.

In the short term Mulcair is best for the NDP in Quebec because he's a household name, but if the NDP picks someone else who is fluently bilingual like Topp or Nash that person will become well known as well and will have the the next three years to build profile. The NDP still has one major advantage in Quebec - their policies are exactly what Quebecers want at the federal level!

If you're talking social policy, then both the Bloc and Grits are basically in alignment with them there. Mulcair, IMO, has the same problem Scott Brison has: he's never really trimmed his ideological sails and because the gulf between they and their respective base is too wide, they'll get anything they want except the leadership. Difference is that Mulcair hasn't realized it yet and almost certainly won't take it as well.

Mulcair's strategy has been fairly straightforward: Quebec plus emphasizing his envirocred to pull Cullen and Nash supporters into his camp. Aiming for the urban progs, not the unions whom he can't credibly woo and have already lined up with either Topp or Nash. Whether that works remains to be seen. Personally I think there's a good chance of him finishing behind Nash unless there's a  wave for him in the West and/or Atlantic Canada. No way can he do well in Ontario with 2 Ontarian household names in the race.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair's strategy has been fairly straightforward: Quebec plus emphasizing his envirocred to pull Cullen and Nash supporters into his camp. Aiming for the urban progs, not the unions whom he can't credibly woo and have already lined up with either Topp or Nash. Whether that works remains to be seen. Personally I think there's a good chance of him finishing behind Nash unless there's a  wave for him in the West and/or Atlantic Canada. No way can he do well in Ontario with 2 Ontarian household names in the race.

Are you aware that yesterday Mulcair was endorsed by Wayne Samuelson the longtime President of the Ontario Federation of Labour?

He's in a minority though. All the other labour organizations/leaders have endorsed Nash or Topp. Nor was he big on unions on the provincial scene despite being very much on the Pelquiste left.

[RogueBeaver]

Harris-Decima poll translated: can anyone say UK 1923? (CPC 138, NDP 75, LPC 65, BQ 29) Maybe Teddy or others want to run it through their models and see what they get?

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/12/16/ndp-quebec-leadership-poll_n_1152224.html?ref=canada-politics#s507555&title=Brian_Topp_

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/12/ndp-support-collapses-in-quebec-without.html

[RogueBeaver]

CSD, what gives you unease about Topp besides his lack of parliamentary experience?

[RogueBeaver]

Now, back to scheduled programming...

CSD, what's your unease with Topp about?