Italy 2013 official results thread

[RogueBeaver]

What's left to count? For some reason Google isn't working and I don't know any Italian.

[RogueBeaver]

Jesus Christ, this is beyond Hewsonian levels of Epic Fail if confirmed. What I find interesting is that Italian voters might give SB the Senate but hadn't lost enough of their senses to give him the Chamber.

Unlike the PD folk I don't think the electoral law is necessarily the problem. Problem is that the Senate's too powerful. Either reduce their power or get an override mechanism like the UK Parliament Acts or Aussie joint sittings. Would require a constitutional amendment obviously...

[RogueBeaver]

Would Bersani even be sworn in as PM, since you need both Chamber and Senate confidence? Unless Grillo votes for confirmation and immediate dissolution.

Senate: Total clusterfark. Pukeworthy.

[RogueBeaver]

Any news on the Chamber? IIRC Bersani was projected to win that easily... yet he lost the Senate. This goes beyond ticket splitting, it's cognitive dissonance.

[RogueBeaver]

Worst news yet from Grauniad liveblog: first Chamber projections have Berlusconi ahead! *Headdesk*

[RogueBeaver]

PD is now confirming the need for an early election. Words fail me.

[RogueBeaver]

Grauniad said they actually haven't gotten any Camera projections yet. Whew. Also a UK think tank profiled Grillo voters: pro-immigration, economically focused with centre-left views there, better-educated than the average voter but higher unemployment rates.

[RogueBeaver]

Half a point? Needless to say that could easily go the other way... 2006 all over again.

[RogueBeaver]

If SB wins the Chamber... dear God. One thing's for certain: PD picked the wrong leader last year.

[RogueBeaver]

Which regions are left to count in both chambers?

[RogueBeaver]

Automatically get ~54%, or 340-ish Camera seats.

[RogueBeaver]

M5S people are saying they'll make their own decisions based on web feedback, not what Grillo says. So there has to be a new election regardless of who wins the Chamber, since M5S won't be a coherent bloc voting confidence in either Bersani or PDL.

[RogueBeaver]

The latest RAI projection:

SENATO DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 31,1 - 105 seats
Centrodestra 30,5 - 113 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 24,4 - 63 seats
Scelta Civica 9,5 - 20 seats

CAMERA DELLA REPUBBLICA

Centrosinistra 29,2 - 340 seats
Centrodestra 28,7 - 121 seats
Movimento 5 Stelle 26,1 - 111 seats
Scelta Civica 10,8 - 45 seats

Wait, how does a .5% popular vote lead result in 219 more seats?!

Majority bonus. Whoever wins the national popular vote automatically wins a Chamber majority, 340-ish seats.

[RogueBeaver]

At this rate looks like Bersani will hold the Camera by the skin of his teeth, thankfully, since the current trend doesn't seem steep enough to flip that lead.

[RogueBeaver]

Extrapolating from current trends, Camera should be within a point for Bersani like RAI predicted. Not quite as close as '06, thankfully.

[RogueBeaver]

La Repubblica still has a 1.5% Bersani lead for the Camera. Unless you guys have a source that updates even faster, preferably without prompting.

[RogueBeaver]

Per Grauniad liveblog, apparently Grillo has said he's uninterested in propping either man up and suggested a Grand Coalition.

[RogueBeaver]

It does because neither man can get Senate confidence.

[RogueBeaver]

Still think Bersani wins the Camera within a point.

[RogueBeaver]

The trend doesn't look steep enough for that lead to flip. Piedmont Senate is also on a Q-tip edge.

[RogueBeaver]

Does the Camera matter if nobody has a Senate majority?

No. A government needs to have the confidence of both Camera and Senate. Grillo won't prop either man up, and neither major party + Monti will have the 158 votes needed for a Senate majority.

[RogueBeaver]

Camera

http://elezioni.interno.it/camera/scrutini/20130224/index.html#camera/scrutini/20130224/C000000000.htm

Senate

http://elezioni.interno.it/camera/scrutini/20130224/index.html#

These are the official Interior Ministry results. You gotta keep refreshing yourself, no auto.

[RogueBeaver]

Nothing reported yet here in Canada.

[RogueBeaver]

So that'll decide who gets a Senate plurality. Still don't see the Camera lead flipping.

[RogueBeaver]

With Piedmont flipping to the center-left, does this give them a plurality?

Yep. Will give Bersani some momentum for Round 2.