NY-09, Special Election Thread

[DrScholl]

Hasn't it already been established that this district is more socially conservative on average? The PVI even fell eight points in 2008, that's a sign of something going on before now.

Jewish voters aren't monolithic, in other states they tend to be more liberal and focus on other issues, so I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that Obama is losing Jewish voters because of one low turnout House race.

[DrScholl]

If you clicked the link, you'd find out that no D presidential nominee, except Carter, had less than 60% of the Jewish vote.  Now that isn't "monolithic" but it is, or was, a strong component of the D coalition.  Losing this district, and performing so badly in a Jwwish area without a large Orthodox population, is a very bad sign for Obama in 2012, even if, as the D's are saying, this is about "Jewish issues."

BTW:  The black vote was not as strongly D during the same period.

My point is about using special elections to predict future general elections, it just doesn't work, because special elections can be very unpredictable. This isn't a partisan thing, I wouldn't use a Republican losing a special election to predict anything either.