CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

[sparkey]

I know next to nothing about this primary, but I'm vaguely aware that Newsom was purported to be a fiscal conservative.

Can someone break down the primary race and Newsom's positions to me? Answers much appreciated.

It's no secret that Newsom has lurched leftward for his gubernatorial campaign on issues like single payer and the bullet train. He earned a reputation as a somewhat pro-business Democrat as Mayor of San Francisco, although "fiscal conservative" is a stretch. I think it's fair to say that Newsom governed to the right of Villaraigosa, but is running to the left of him.

Here are my new campaign slogans for the major Democratic candidates:

• Eastin: "Socialism now!!!"
• Newsom: "Uh, I want socialism now too! What do you mean 'pro-business Democrat'? I'm one of you now, comrade! Bernie Sanders is cool now, right? Love me!"
• Chiang: "Socialism eventually! Once I figure out how to work it into my complicated budgetary schemes that avoid any public pension cuts and include lucrative contracts granted to my campaign donors."
• Villaraigosa: "Socialism maybe! Wanna buy some Herbalife?"
• Renteria: "i am new and what is this"

[sparkey]

An even better strategy for the GOP is to start running exactly 2 strong candidates in every race, and hope that the Democrats run 3+. Then results like this could happen (not that I think it will in this race, mainly because Newsom is too strong):

1. Allen 17%
2. Cox 17%
3. Newsom 16%
4. Villaraigosa 16%
5. Chiang 12%
6. Eastin 10%
7. Renteria 7%
Others 5%

Just like that, nearly 2 times fewer R votes than D votes, and yet the runoff is R vs. R.

[sparkey]

Question, even if Republicans run "strong candidates", why does the leading Democrat get 10% less than he's polling at in your example?

Maybe things change? It's not a prediction, but it seems like a better path to gaming the Top 2 and getting somebody elected than only running 1 candidate and then getting stomped in round 2 every time.

[sparkey]

I'm voting early for Chiang.

Excellent news!  What in particular drove you towards him?

He doesn't have the baggage of Newsom or Villaraigosa.

Chiang has his own baggage alright.

[sparkey]

Any predictions for who gets the CA GOP endorsement, if anybody? LA Times:

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I'm guessing that both hover around 50% and there's no endorsement. Probably the worst case scenario for the GOP is for Allen to get it, and for that to draw the candidates even in the polls.