August 11th Fox News Iowa presidential debate **live commentary thread** (user search)
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  August 11th Fox News Iowa presidential debate **live commentary thread** (search mode)
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Author Topic: August 11th Fox News Iowa presidential debate **live commentary thread**  (Read 23564 times)
Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« on: August 11, 2011, 11:16:47 PM »

Winners and losers (+ brief summary):

(1/2) Paul: The way Paul was handled by the moderators was kind of funny. He had two questions near the very beginning (he went into the first strong but was caught in a trap and flubbed it, and then he did so-so on the second), and then suddenly gets hit with a curveball on foreign policy. Suddenly he isn't being ignored at all, and has to duke it out with Pawlenty AND Bachmann AND Santorum! Santorum in particular seemed really eager to position himself as the Pawlenty to Paul's Bachmann, taking every cheap shot he could, or maybe 08's Giuliani to 08's Paul. Yet Paul pulled himself together and did just great from that point on, schooling Santorum especially about foreign policy. It is clear he is getting a niche of anti-war voters around him before it becomes popular with the rest, since while the Republicans are still mostly pro-war, the vast majority of Americans (about 70% or so I think) are against it, so he might gain big from this. He didn't do too badly on the debt ceiling questions either.

(1/2) Gingrich: He managed to avoid brawling and looking like a moron, and made some decent points that were crammed in from the side. Fighting the moderator wasn't a good idea, but I would say he still did great overall. If he had an actual campaign apparatus I would think he might start to improve from here.

(3) Cain: He didn't get into a brawl (see above), and sounded kind of reasonable when talking. On the other hand, he seemed to be entirely divorced from the actual debate, and it sounded funny when he started talking about how much he was learning on the job.

(4) Bachmann: She could have done better, but she fell for a trap and spent most of the debate fighting Pawlenty, which is kind of stupid seeing as how she is so far ahead of him anyway and she only needed to make a couple of brief attacks. Instead of being subtler or more clever, she opened up a bloody missile barrage on Pawlenty and decided that, instead of making herself look good like she did last time, she was going to engage in some ship-to-ship combat with Pawlenty. She come out looking better than he did, but really, both will see their straw poll numbers suffer from this, and the only beneficiaries from this suicide bombing would be Ron Paul and Rick Perry.

(5) Santorum: I personally despise his views and I suspect a very large portion of the electorate (including most Republicans) agrees, but his sudden attempt to steal the show with fights against Ron Paul was actually pretty clever. Sure, he came off as the loser every time (except the one time where Paul didn't get to counterattack, on that monetary policy issue), but I suspect the people he is aiming to attract already disagree with Paul strongly anyway and will be drawn to him. The nutty big government social conservatives and the war hungry neo conservatives are probably loving him right now, and that could, if nothing else, boost his standings a bit. Oh, don't get me wrong, it would be a miracle if that tiny group of supporters broke 12%, and if he went against Obama he would probably lose Texas and West Virginia, but he will at least be able to brag about his "strong performance" and maybe position himself for a VP position.

(6) Huntsman: He didn't do a good job. He came off as a slightly more transparent, more obviously "moderate", and more dishonest version of Romney (did you see his response to the talk about his company outsourcing?). However, he beat Romney in that, if nothing else, people might know who he is now. He might at least be well known and get SOME support rather than become another Karger and lose with barely 1% of the vote.

(7) Romney: Okay, he avoided the fighting and hid in the corner, but despite what those analysts think that wasn't something that improved his image. Seriously, there is a whole list of problems with Romney here. His answers were incredibly shallow and weak, his rhetoric was lacking, he didn't make any impression except as a "politician", which is not an impression he wants if he wants to win in the current climate. That isn't the tip of the iceberg. He was pressed by Pawlenty once, sputtered a bit as though confused that the dog bit the master, and turned red as a tomato and remained this red for the course of the entire debate. Seriously, I can't make this up. He was practically glowing with what I can only describe as either a bad spray on tan or a nasty sunburn midway through the debate. He wasn't as slick as last time, and in his current position I can't say this bodes well for him.

(Cool T-Paw: Yeah, he screwed the pooch. I know, I (and many others) wanted him to grow some balls and attack Romney rather than pull back in shame, but he didn't need to be a belligerent moron, either. I mean, he took small shots at Romney and Paul, and he did so about the way he should have done, strong enough to leave a mark but not so strong as to drag you into a debate-long argument. However, he screwed the pooch by pointlessly getting into a slugfest with Bachmann and refusing to let it go. I don't see how he can recover from this.

Other notes:

Those commentators between segments were real funny. I am a Paul fan and admit to a bit of bias, and the way they treated him was just hilarious. I mean, it wasn't "Do you believe in aliens" and "Are you electable" silliness, but it was kind of like he was a ghost on the debate floor. Most of the time, they didn't acknowledge his existence. There was one time where denying his existence is impossible without looking stupid (the Paul v Santorum slugfest), however. The guy in "charge" mentions his name while the others are all like "These guys aren't talking real policy at all, they aren't serious, blah blah blah", and then the two guys start with "Well, he IS talking, but dammit he wants to negotiate with Iran and that's a BAD idea so he doesn't count!" and start agreeing with each other like they were explicitly put there to attack him. That hot chick in the red dress looks all angry, like "How dare you say that name! He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named can detect when his name is uttered and will eat your soul if you mention him!". Seriously, I don't think she said the words "Ron" and "Paul" together once during the entire debate, even when the guys were busy ranting about him. Then later on they are talking about how none of the candidates inspire supporters, and the "leader" says "Well, Ron Paul does" and the two guys (the girl is still refusing to accept his existence) go "Oh, well yeah, there IS Ron Paul, but he doesn't count".

Also, a lot of the debate could be summed up with an ad libs sheet. Seriously, tell me this doesn't more or less cover a lot of the debate:

Excuse me, I, (INSERT NAME HERE), have a roxxorz voting record whereas (INSERT NAME HERE) has a suxxorz voting record.

followed by

Well, I think (INSERT NAME HERE) is denying that his voting record suxxorz and mine roxxorz.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
ModernBourbon Democrat
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2011, 11:59:52 PM »

Bachmann had a very clear goal going into this debate: end Pawlenty's candidacy. She (probably) accomplished that.

Well, I guess, but she came out having hurt herself as much as T-Paw. After watching this debate, my idea for the odds of the straw poll went from "Paul or Bachmann are about equally likely to win with maybe Pawlenty taking second or third" to "Paul is going to win, Bachmann and Pawlenty are going to play in the dirt, Santorum or Cain might actually beat one of them".
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2011, 01:25:54 PM »

I'm only fifteen minutes into the debate but I decided to comb through this thread as a break. I just had to respond to this gem...

Wait, did Santorum really just boast his electoral history?
If he wants to look at a decent record, look at Paul, someone who can win reelection...

Rick Santorum was elected to the House in a Democratic district by beating a seven term incumbent in 1990. The Democrats redistricted in 1991 and gave him an even more overwhelmingly Democratic district in 1992. He won again...with 62% of the vote that time. He went on to be elected and re-elected to the U.S. Senate from a swing state (or Democratic leaning state but I'm sure the Santorum haters that usually call PA a Democratic state will suddenly say it is Republican leaning to undermine Santorum's wins). In 2000, he received more votes than Gore-Lieberman.

Give me a call when Ron Paul wins something outside of his safe Republican Congressional district. Give me a call when he wins a statewide race in a swing state. Yeah, Santorum got his ass kicked in hard when he was running for his third term to the Senate. He still has way more electoral achievements in terms of quality than Ron Paul will ever have.

As I recall, Ron Paul took his seat initially back when Texas was strongly Democratic and his seat was firmly aligned with them, which he won. He eventually lost after giving up and trying for a higher office.

Santorum, meanwhile, was completely and utterly destroyed in fairly Democratic Pennsylvania, and is performing worse than other candidates in the state despite being the favourite son.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2011, 08:18:34 PM »

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Texas as a whole began slowly moving Republican, while Paul's seat rapidly became Republican as his popularity climbed, eventually being one of the safest districts for Republicans in the country.

I suppose it is a positive thing that Santorum never pushed Pennsylvania in the direction of the Republicans in the slightest and pissed off his constituents?
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That's mildly impressive, to be compared with others who win victories in states that lean slightly against them. But that doesn't eradicate the fact that he lasted only two terms and was crushed by 18 points, which is what I would expect from an incredibly strong Democratic state. The Republicans performed better in far more Democratic state than Pennsylvania, which says something about Rick's popularity.

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Two points? Oh my God! To achieve such close margins in such a Democratic stronghold, Santorum must be truly an amazing leader with a chance to beat Obama!

Except Pennsylvania has been trending Republican in a major way for a while now. Romney is actually WINNING the state, and pretty much every Republican in the race could have a decent shot at winning or performing well. Furthermore, Santorum has the benefit of being from the state, which pretty much always results in a boost.

Ron Paul is winning Texas by five points against Obama. Texas is pretty safely Republican and Ron Paul is an actual Texan, but to use your logic this proves that he is easily the best candidate in the race by coming second against Obama (Romney is ahead by 7). Paul IS the best against Obama, but only because his strongest demographics are the kind that no other Republican is likely to even come close to Obama in matching, whereas Santorum will forever be remembered as a gay-hating, Constitution bashing warmonger. Oh, he carved himself a nice little demographic with neoconservatives and extreme socons, but that demographic has been shrinking for the past four years and if he wins the nomination (about as likely as him being stung to death by bees and then struck by lightning on the way to the polling booth) he will be utterly crushed for having views that really only appeal to a tiny demographic that is almost exclusively Republican anyway. Supporting the wars, in particular, would kill him. About 70% of Americans are now against the wars, and Obama would just need to press Santorum a bit, let him run his mouth off, and sit back as victory walked up to him.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2011, 09:04:06 PM »

So your point is that Santorum is clearly very unpopular in the state but only trailing by two (while everyone else trails by more an Romney is barely ahead) isn't good enough? Please stop posting.

To add insult to your already horrendous "analysis," you think Obama will coast to victory against Santorum or anyone else that isn't Paul. Someone needs to wake up.

Only trailing by two because, again, he is FROM Pennsylvania. The fact that he is still beating some opponents against Obama is just a testament to relatively weak opposition and the fact that his debate performance wasn't aired at the time. The fact that he isn't beating Romney in his home state (or at least coming marginally close, say, within a couple points distance) says something about him, and it isn't positive.

No, Obama will not "coast to victory" against anyone who isn't Paul, he will coast to victory against Santorum (Palin and Perry too if they ran and won the nomination). I would love to see you explain how a campaign running primarily on the issues of being against abortion regardless of circumstances (20% of the public or so supports this view, almost all dedicated Republicans), being pro-war (30% of the public supports this view, primarily Republicans) and being against almost all of the things the Tea Party stands for (which has increased voter turnout in favour of Republicans) is a winning campaign. Obama could probably let Santorum beat himself.

Paul has benefits from stronger support with normally Democratic or neutral demographics, which is a bonus, but just about any other Republican short of ARGUABLY Palin could outperform Santorum with incredible ease.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
ModernBourbon Democrat
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2011, 09:30:49 PM »

He isn't trailing because he's from here, ass. Plus, if he's so terribly unpopular, he would trail by more!

Santorum isn't running a race mostly based on abortion or the wars. Further proof of your ignorance. Save us both some time and don't continue this.

...No, he is performing better because he is from Penn. thus meaning that people probably at least have an idea of who he is and some might be motivated to back the "home team". Rick Perry is pretty well detested across Texas, but he was a governor and his views had more of an effect on the daily lives of Texans, meaning he actually was polled to lose Texas to Obama.

Not running mostly on abortion? Bull. Did you pay any attention to his announcement? He practically screamed that he was running because he figured that big government social conservatives needed a candidate, followed by a nice touch of anti-gay bigotry.

You still have yet to explain what circumstances could lead to Santorum's views, which are considered "absolutely nuts" by about 70% of the American electorate, triumphing over Obama short of a bomb destroying the Democratic Party apparatus and mass lynching of Democrats.
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