Did Southwest Virginia surprise you last night?

[Skill and Chance]

Not really, because McAuliffe is basically a liberal Romney- i.e. the worst possible fit for this region.  I think this also suggests that Obama's economic populism helped him save face in some rural areas last year and that generic Dems still have further to fall in the countryside.  McAuliffe probably couldn't win Iowa for example.  VA is changing enough that this won't matter, but it could spell serious trouble in PA.  I would not be surprised if WV is 80R/20D in the 2020's, along with Appalachia in general.

[Skill and Chance]

Not really, because McAuliffe is basically a liberal Romney- i.e. the worst possible fit for this region.  I think this also suggests that Obama's economic populism helped him save face in some rural areas last year and that generic Dems still have further to fall in the countryside.  McAuliffe probably couldn't win Iowa for example.  VA is changing enough that this won't matter, but it could spell serious trouble in PA.  I would not be surprised if WV is 80R/20D in the 2020's, along with Appalachia in general.

That's a bit extreme. Has any presidential candidate from either party managed to crack 80% of the vote since pre-1950s Democrats in the South? LBJ didn't. Nixon didn't. Reagan didn't.

LBJ in 1964 did it in MA and RI.  He cracked 85% in RI.

[Skill and Chance]

Also, there is DC, which is consistently >85% D every time and it is the size of a small state.  Unless poor rural voters somehow fall in love with Obamacare, there is nothing to stop WV from becoming reverse DC.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think it's a big deal that Deeds performed better than McAuliffe considering Deeds is from that part of the state

In most of VA-09, Obama (in 2012) performed better than McAuliffe.  That is a big deal.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think it's a big deal that Deeds performed better than McAuliffe considering Deeds is from that part of the state

In most of VA-09, Obama (in 2012) performed better than McAuliffe.  That is a big deal.

Yeah. Cuccinelli won CD9 61-32-7. With just the two-party vote, thats 66-34, compared to Romney's 64-36.

You gotta be wondering what Senator Phil Puckett is thinking. He's the last Democrat from this area. He was mostly unopposed until a 53-47 win in 2011. His district was 67% Romney, 66% Allen; his district voted like that this time, too:

Gov: 64-31 Cooch
LG: 64-36 Jackson
AG: 68-32 Obenshain

Well he is apparently 66, so I would guess he is almost certainly retiring in 2015.  And the seat will be gone for D's.  That would mean D's need a pick up in 2015 to maintain the 20-20 tie.  There are two R-held Obama seats: SD-10 (50.3% Obama 2012) or SD-07 in Virginia Beach (flipped from McCain to Obama, barely).  Did McAuliffe win either of these?

[Skill and Chance]

Well he is apparently 66, so I would guess he is almost certainly retiring in 2015.  And the seat will be gone for D's.  That would mean D's need a pick up in 2015 to maintain the 20-20 tie.  There are two R-held Obama seats: SD-10 (50.3% Obama 2012) or SD-07 in Virginia Beach (flipped from McCain to Obama, barely).  Did McAuliffe win either of these?

I got T-Mac winning both. He won SD10 46-42 but won SD7 by 7 votes.

Very interesting.  SD-17 and SD-13 are the next most competitive.  What do you have for them?

[Skill and Chance]

Cooch won SD13 by 3. I'm posting the numbers here because I clicked out of the workbook with the others without saving it

Wow, that was a 51% Romney/51% Allen seat last year!  And McAuliffe pulled to a statistical tie while doing worse than Obama statewide.  Ironically, SD-17 was D-held until 2011.  I don't think they will be getting that one back anytime soon.

Only other potentially interesting one is SD-20, also D-held until 2011 and <51%Romney in 2012.  I think turnout was very different there this year, though.

[Skill and Chance]

Disregard previous comment.  Thought it was 3 votes.  This is in line with past SD-13 results.  McAuliffe did 1% better than Obama or Kaine there.  What about SD-20?  I'm expecting a Cuccinelli blowout...

[Skill and Chance]

One more question for you, Miles: Did Herring or Obenshain win SD-10 (the 46/42 McAuliffe one)?