CNN/ORC: Clinton loses edge, Biden stronger

[Skill and Chance]

This poll also has Biden crushing Jeb by a 10 point margin.  The difference?  Biden only trails by 2 with whites. 

Biden also leads Trump by 16 points, and trails Carson by 3.

Wow, and that's what many were saying would be Hillary's strength.  What would the map look like with the Democrat only barely losing white voters by 2-4% and only getting 70%ish with minority voters? 

Something like this?

[Skill and Chance]

This poll also has Biden crushing Jeb by a 10 point margin.  The difference?  Biden only trails by 2 with whites. 

Biden also leads Trump by 16 points, and trails Carson by 3.

Wow, and that's what many were saying would be Hillary's strength.  What would the map look like with the Democrat only barely losing white voters by 2-4% and only getting 70%ish with minority voters? 

Something like this?

RCP has a nifty calculator for just such a scenario.  Its not good for the GOP.

I set African American turnout and voting to 2004 levels.  I put whites at 52-48 in favor of the Republicans and Latinos at 52-48 in favor of the Democrats.

The result is a mirror image of 2008 (Nebraska's 2nd district probably flips too, but the map doesn't show it.

Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, the Dakotas, and Montana are all very close.  Bush's home state advantage probably tips Florida into his column.

Interesting.  I wasn't sure whether to assume the GOP overperformance would come from splitting Latinos about evenly and staying at ~10% of the black vote or from getting say 15-20% black support plus ~40% of Latinos and Asians.  In the latter scenario, I think the GOP would still hold everything south of VA and east of NM due to the less unanimous black vote.  But yes, MT and the Dakotas are generally within +/-2% of the national white vote, so if Biden is holding up that well...

[Skill and Chance]

I checked out a few other polls.  PPP has Biden trailing by 11 with whites (10 points better than Obama in 2012, and 3 points better than Clinton in the poll).  Quinnipiac has Biden trailing by 8 points with whites (compared to Clinton trailing by 14.)

So Biden being stronger with whites looks like a real thing, though this poll is probably an outliar.

Fascinating.  On the surface, that sounds like Ohio would be his deciding state under most circumstances.  Although Obama already did worse than nationally with the white vote in VA and FL, so it's to see the former slipping away before Ohio under those circumstances.

[Skill and Chance]

A few observations drawing from the various political events of this summer:

1. Obama's win in 2012 was about the economic recovery being just strong enough.  It was not about women taking offense to a sexist Republican platform.  If anything, the GOP field is running right of Romney on gender issues.  Trump is now routinely doing as well or better with women against Clinton than Romney did against Obama and the other Republicans are even stronger.   It appears that sexism begins mattering to the median female voter around Trump's level of behavior, but not before then.  If true, this represents a major elite/non-elite disconnect in how people perceive the world around them.

2. Clinton playing populist to ward off Warren/Sanders was a big mistake.  She needed/needs to run as an establishment elder statesman who is more moderate than Obama on at least some issues.

3. Which brings me to immigration.  It's clear from Trump's general election polling that Clinton and Obama from 2014-present have simply gone too far left on immigration.  Centrist and even many left-leaning voters who were born here are quite uncomfortable with pure open borders.

4. Any campaigns involving "the first X president" are going to be anomalously polarizing.  Note Kennedy and LBJ's 75-85% Catholic support and how Catholics quickly trended R to support Nixon by 1972.  Obviously we didn't have polling back then, but it's also clear that Northerners were very uncomfortable with Wilson in 1916 as the 1st Southern president since the Civil War and there was clear Protestant/Catholic polarization with Al Smith in 1928.  Those of us who have speculated about a 90/10 D minority vote and 70/30 R white vote in the 2020's may look quite shortsighted soon.