Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Skill and Chance]

This should be getting more attention than it is.  Between JBE next door and Mark Kirk in IL after the Blagojevich shenanigans, there is a narrow Dem path to victory here.

[Skill and Chance]

Wasting money on Alabama is criminal...if it were a gubernatorial race fine, but no Dem is getting sent to Congress from this state.

Republican strategists said the same thing about Massachusetts in 2010.

[Skill and Chance]

Basically, make gains around the Black Belt, the Mobile metro and the Huntsville metro.

There is absolutely 0 chance that Moore wins Mobile, even if he won statewide in a fantasy universe. Mobile voted Moore over Strange.

This is likely true.  Jones probably keeps it close by swinging metro Birmingham and Huntsville towards him to the same degree Clinton swung metro Atlanta toward her.  Think 60%+ in Jefferson with most of the surrounding counties being 60-70%R instead of 70-80%R.  Similarly, he would win Madison with 55%ish and keep Limestone and Morgan around 60%R instead of 70%.  Tuscaloosa would be quite close.

[Skill and Chance]

I will lol if D's win AL, but lose VA.

Elections for governor are just different.  They can be uncorrelated with the national environment or the state's partisan lean. 

VA-GOV 2013 went the complete opposite way of the 2014 midterms, same thing with VA-GOV 2001 and the 2002 midterms.  And VA-GOV 2005 was a Dem winning by basically the exat same margin as 2001.  That leaves only the McDonnell landslide in VA-GOV 2009 and the 2010 GOP wave midterm that remotely match.  It's not well correlated.

[Skill and Chance]

IMO Moore wins by 8 or 9.  Jones will have the best Dem performance in Huntsville in the modern era, but it won't be enough. 

[Skill and Chance]

Even if Jones wins, Republicans will still have the Senate until 2021 minimum, when Jones will lose re-election or retire anyway.
[/quote]

A net D+2 is now a very plausible outcome for 2018, between the Heller and Flake seats and the potential for a Cochran or McCain retirement, and the potential for Collins and/or Murkowski to become a Dem-caucusing Indy if it's tied is significant.  I wouldn't be entirely shocked if Collins and Murkowski left the GOP this December if Jones won.    

[Skill and Chance]

I do not think it will stay tied.  It will either be Jones +15ish (Akin/Vitter scenario) or Moore +5ish (Trump/Gianforte scenario).