GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Skill and Chance]

If it goes to a runoff, I would expect whichever party lost the presidential election to win.  If both GA senate seats go to runoffs (a reasonably likely outcome), will the runoffs happen on the same day? 

[Skill and Chance]

Gov. Brian Kemp to appoint Businesswoman Kelly Loeffler to the soon to be vacant Senate seat. He reportedly will announce the appointment at a press conference early next week.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-gov-expected-tap-finance-exec-senate-next-week/qDibvzRR0L6VvyUmjnB1QJ/#

Loeffler would be the best option for the general election. However, Collins could very well mount a primary challenge out of spite, and given how "Trumpy" the Republican base has become, I wouldn't be surprised if he beat her. He would then put the seat in jeopardy in the general, as I believe that he would not appeal to the Atlanta suburbs effectively and would lose suburban voters who stuck with Kemp last year against Abrams.

Yeah, Loeffler is clearly the better candidate and her advancing to the runoff is the best case scenario for Republicans, but Collins running and advancing to face a Democrat in the runoff with Loeffler in 3rd is a worse scenario for Republicans than Collins simply running as the appointed incumbent would be.  Collins could win 1-on-1 vs. a Dem in November if it's a good night for Trump.  Loeffler won't get that opportunity if Collins runs.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump is clearly the favorite to win GA.

It’s nowhere near as "clear" as you and others are making it out to be. Regardless, even if he wins GA by 1-2%, that hardly guarantees a GOP victory in the special election (for obvious reasons).

Trump wont outperform Senate Republicans in the Sunbelt

That is likely true, but Georgia is a special case because Trump can win 48/46, but Loeffler and Perdue can't.  If Trump gets a plurality win and they track him exactly, they are going to be thrown into January runoffs with likely sky high Dem turnout (assuming Trump just got reelected).

[Skill and Chance]

This race was never Likely R.

The only thing that gives me pause here is the long, long trend of Republican overperformance in runoffs/specials in GA.  I think that could reverse if Trump has already won reelection and this is Dem voters' 1st chance to thumb their nose at him, but I'm not sure.  In the event Trump loses, it's hard not to see a runoff being an easy Republican win. 

Of course, if the legislature succeeds in changing this from a Louisiana primary to a normal open primary, the odds of a runoff go way down.

[Skill and Chance]

So if the "jungle primary" happens...

Does that mean that all candidates will be on one ballot (multiple Republicans, multiple Democrats)? And the a January runoff between the top two vote getters?

That’s correct

Would that be worse for Democrats?

I’m trying to understand why they’re also pushing for a traditional primary along with Collins rather than a jungle primary.

They're worried that Collins and Loeffler split the vote and two Ds get in. Also worried that whoever comes out on the other side of the runoff if it's D vs R has a lot less money in the bank and is damaged goods while Warnock gets a year long lead on running in the GE.

I think it's a very open question whether Warnock should hope for the Louisiana system to stay in effect or hope for a traditional primary.  For him to win a 1-on-1 (or a near 1-on-1) in November, which means either Trump has to really tank and lose GA or Collins has to really alienate Atlanta and then trail Trump significantly.

For him to win in January, Trump has to win the election and there has to be 2017 style disproportionate turnout from Dems who are very upset about that.  The only way this goes to a runoff with a Trump victory is if the Louisiana system stays in effect, but if it goes to a runoff after a Trump loss, even a loss in which Trump loses GA, he has essentially no chance in the runoff against either candidate.

Between the 2 GOP opponents, it's probably better for Warnock to face Loeffler in a runoff following a Trump victory, because she could struggle to rally GOP turnout, but it's clearly better for him to face Collins in November if there is a traditional primary.  

[Skill and Chance]

So if the "jungle primary" happens...

Does that mean that all candidates will be on one ballot (multiple Republicans, multiple Democrats)? And the a January runoff between the top two vote getters?

That’s correct

Would that be worse for Democrats?

I’m trying to understand why they’re also pushing for a traditional primary along with Collins rather than a jungle primary.

Yes. Both sides have reason to fear the jungle primary, which is why there are groups on both sides of the aisle trying to end it (of course, there are groups on both sides supporting it as well). I'd argue Democrats have more to fear, however.

Even with Warnock, the field in a functional sense can't be cleared in a jungle primary and there's a high probability it won't be; all candidates appear on the same ballot, like what happened in the GA-6 April 2017 "primary". There are already multiple declared Democratic candidates in this race. While many will be sensible enough to drop out or avoid qualifying in the first place, not all will come to that conclusion. Even just one rando can siphon off 0.5-1% of the vote in a high-turnout presidential contest where there's a meaningful cohort of low-information voters showing up just for the presidency.  

A Democrat losing 0.5 points in a statewide race in GA at this point is exponentially more damaging than a Democrat losing that much in a statewide race elsewhere because of the runoff issue and how difficult it is to hit 50%+1. There's also the opportunity for the GOP to simply pay a few thousand dollars in candidate fees and get Aaaron Aaa or whomever to run as a Democrat (not sure about how/if alphabetization applies on jungle primary ballots, but the point still stands) even if all actual Democratic candidates end their campaigns.

I don't think there is really any hope of a Dem winning in November under the Louisiana rules with 2 high profile GOP opponents and one of them needing to court moderate Dems to cross over. 

Speaking of which, do you think a Loeffler vs. Collins January runoff is a serious risk?  I would think the Dem floor is well over 1/3rd of the vote?

[Skill and Chance]

This race was never Likely R.

The only thing that gives me pause here is the long, long trend of Republican overperformance in runoffs/specials in GA. I think that could reverse if Trump has already won reelection and this is Dem voters' 1st chance to thumb their nose at him, but I'm not sure.  In the event Trump loses, it's hard not to see a runoff being an easy Republican win.  

Of course, if the legislature succeeds in changing this from a Louisiana primary to a normal open primary, the odds of a runoff go way down.

Honestly, I think Barrow losing the runoff by less than 4 points even while losing Cobb and underperforming badly in Gwinnett, Newton, Henry, etc. pretty much shows that this is a thing of the past.

What's so interesting about Georgia is that running on pure identity politics really is the best strategy for both sides now.  That's unusual, and not something that's common to all Sunbelt states (Garcia tanked while Sinema won in AZ, McCrory clearly went too far in NC).

[Skill and Chance]

Don't know why you guys want Collins so bad. He is a significantly stronger candidate than Loeffler by every metric.

Yeah some people on this forum (and almost every political pundits) don't understand how GA politics is working.
It's not about ''white, moderate, suburban soccer moms in Buckhead'', it's about running up the margins among your base. Loeffler would not do better than Collins just because she is white woman, that's a silly idea, just look at how much Karen Handel overperformed Kemp in her district (and she had the incumbency advantage). (Answer : she overperformed him by 1.5 point).

I get this.

There is every reason to for the GA GOP to want Collins in a January runoff for high base turnout.

[Skill and Chance]

AJC got their hands on an internal poll that has Loeffler and Warnock tied at 11 with Collins at 29.

And Lieberman at 12! 

Would Lieberman or Warnock be stronger in a runoff?

[Skill and Chance]

The way I see it Biden wins the state by 1-2% or so and both GA-R and GA-S go to a runoff (with Ossoff getting very close to 50%+1 in November but no cigar). If Republicans pull off an upset in one of NC/ME/MI and hold the other competitive races (big if), Senate control will then come down to the January runoff elections in Georgia, and it won’t be pretty.

I just can't see Dems winning a runoff in Georgia if Biden has already won.  There's a scenario in there where Trump squeaks by and Republicans lose the senate due to a double runoff.