VA-GOV 2025: Spanberger running

[Skill and Chance]

Youngkin is closing in on 60 % Approval Rating in Blue Virginia!

If those Approvals stay that high and Biden wins Re-Election Lt. Governor Winsome Sears is going to beat Spanberger and will be the next Governor of Virginia.

VA-GOV elections are extremely uncorrelated with the current governor's standing.  Historically, which party wins the presidency is close to the ballgame.  The opposite party of the president almost always wins the VA-GOV election the following year.

Where Spanberger sticks out is as someone who runs far enough ahead of Generic Dem to win even after a Biden reelection.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/VASenateDems/status/1726666024437891532?t=MGMHtKv-NknC-AygtX...

Speaking of legislation,  this is now relevant for the 2025 thread. A lot of this is going to be vetoed by Youngkin, obviously.  But the one that he can't veto is the relevant one: constitutional ammendments go on the ballot if they are approved twice in two different sitting sessions of the legislature. So 2024 and 2025, if historical actions repeat themselves. Which means Abortion will very likely be on the 2025 ballot with the State Assembly and  Spanbergers governor campaign.

The 2 sessions requirement is that it has to be passed twice after 2 consecutive legislative elections.  So the earliest an amendment initiated in 2024 could go to the ballot would be 2026, and only if the amendment's supporters still control both chambers after the 2025 elections.  For example, the amendment to end lifetime felon disenfranchisement died because it passed in 2020/21 after Democrats won both chambers but not in 2022/23 after Republicans flipped the HoD.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/VASenateDems/status/1726666024437891532?t=MGMHtKv-NknC-AygtX...

Speaking of legislation,  this is now relevant for the 2025 thread. A lot of this is going to be vetoed by Youngkin, obviously.  But the one that he can't veto is the relevant one: constitutional ammendments go on the ballot if they are approved twice in two different sitting sessions of the legislature. So 2024 and 2025, if historical actions repeat themselves. Which means Abortion will very likely be on the 2025 ballot with the State Assembly and  Spanbergers governor campaign.

The 2 sessions requirement is that it has to be passed twice after 2 consecutive legislative elections.  So the earliest an amendment initiated in 2024 could go to the ballot would be 2026, and only if the amendment's supporters still control both chambers after the 2025 elections.  For example, the amendment to end lifetime felon disenfranchisement died because it passed in 2020/21 after Democrats won both chambers but not in 2022/23 after Republicans flipped the HoD.

Ah. It seems I was confused by the timings of the 2020 innitiatives and how they were passed in subsequent years.

However, now that we have seen the 2023 results, it's worth noting that it looks extremely hard for R's to deny a D majority in the HoD with even slightly higher college turnout for the governor's election.  R's held 2 college town seats that weren't expected to be top tier close by less than 51/49 and they already have all but one of the competitive Southside seats.  Then there's that famous Richmond suburbs seat that could be close to an auto-flip with a different candidate given that R also only won 51/49.

Not really seeing a path.  If anything, tying the state senate in 2027 could be more plausible, if you extrapolate the Hispanic trend in PWC.   

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/VASenateDems/status/1726666024437891532?t=MGMHtKv-NknC-AygtX...
Speaking of legislation,  this is now relevant for the 2025 thread. A lot of this is going to be vetoed by Youngkin, obviously.  But the one that he can't veto is the relevant one: constitutional ammendments go on the ballot if they are approved twice in two different sitting sessions of the legislature. So 2024 and 2025, if historical actions repeat themselves. Which means Abortion will very likely be on the 2025 ballot with the State Assembly and  Spanbergers governor campaign.

The 2 sessions requirement is that it has to be passed twice after 2 consecutive legislative elections.  So the earliest an amendment initiated in 2024 could go to the ballot would be 2026, and only if the amendment's supporters still control both chambers after the 2025 elections.  For example, the amendment to end lifetime felon disenfranchisement died because it passed in 2020/21 after Democrats won both chambers but not in 2022/23 after Republicans flipped the HoD.

Ah. It seems I was confused by the timings of the 2020 innitiatives and how they were passed in subsequent years.

However, now that we have seen the 2023 results, it's worth noting that it looks extremely hard for R's to deny a D majority in the HoD with even slightly higher college turnout for the governor's election.  R's held 2 college town seats that weren't expected to be top tier close by less than 51/49 and they already have all but one of the competitive Southside seats.  Then there's that famous Richmond suburbs seat that could be close to an auto-flip with a different candidate given that R also only won 51/49.

Not really seeing a path.  If anything, tying the state senate in 2027 could be more plausible, if you extrapolate the Hispanic trend in PWC.   

How high could Democrats get in 2025 in the HoD assuming Trump wins in 1024?

Quite high.  There were 6 seats Republicans won by less than 5 this year and 11 they won by less than 10.  However, VA Republicans remain extremely well-organized downballot (including during the Trump administration), so I think the most plausible is an intermediate Dem wave with those 6 seats flipping, assuming R's hold the presidency. 

The more interesting signal is that even with a Biden reelection, D's could still gain a seat or 2 on net.

The bullish case for R's would be that they can make something happen in Virginia Beach in addition to Southside in the long run with black voters slowly drifting their way.  But in the short run, only one HoD seat in that area was even close, and it now has a star Dem incumbent.  There's also a VA Beach state senate seat that was kind of unexpectedly second tier competitive this year and could be worth the investment in the long run? 

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/VASenateDems/status/1726666024437891532?t=MGMHtKv-NknC-AygtX...
Speaking of legislation,  this is now relevant for the 2025 thread. A lot of this is going to be vetoed by Youngkin, obviously.  But the one that he can't veto is the relevant one: constitutional ammendments go on the ballot if they are approved twice in two different sitting sessions of the legislature. So 2024 and 2025, if historical actions repeat themselves. Which means Abortion will very likely be on the 2025 ballot with the State Assembly and  Spanbergers governor campaign.

The 2 sessions requirement is that it has to be passed twice after 2 consecutive legislative elections.  So the earliest an amendment initiated in 2024 could go to the ballot would be 2026, and only if the amendment's supporters still control both chambers after the 2025 elections.  For example, the amendment to end lifetime felon disenfranchisement died because it passed in 2020/21 after Democrats won both chambers but not in 2022/23 after Republicans flipped the HoD.

Ah. It seems I was confused by the timings of the 2020 innitiatives and how they were passed in subsequent years.

However, now that we have seen the 2023 results, it's worth noting that it looks extremely hard for R's to deny a D majority in the HoD with even slightly higher college turnout for the governor's election.  R's held 2 college town seats that weren't expected to be top tier close by less than 51/49 and they already have all but one of the competitive Southside seats.  Then there's that famous Richmond suburbs seat that could be close to an auto-flip with a different candidate given that R also only won 51/49.

Not really seeing a path.  If anything, tying the state senate in 2027 could be more plausible, if you extrapolate the Hispanic trend in PWC.   

How high could Democrats get in 2025 in the HoD assuming Trump wins in 1024?

Quite high.  There were 6 seats Republicans won by less than 5 this year and 11 they won by less than 10.  However, VA Republicans remain extremely well-organized downballot (including during the Trump administration), so I think the most plausible is an intermediate Dem wave with those 6 seats flipping, assuming R's hold the presidency. 

The more interesting signal is that even with a Biden reelection, D's could still gain a seat or 2 on net.

I think complicating this is that I believe we are headed towards a ‘08 style recession or worse  soon given the economic fundamentals (I find it hard to believe that an economy used to 0% interest rates for over a decade can adjust to 5+% this easily). If one hasn’t happened yet by ‘24, it almost certainly does by ‘25. Hence I tend to believe that the magnitude of the wave for the out of power party in 2025 should be larger (so I doubt Democrats do better than 2023 if Biden holds and think that 60+ is possible for Ds with Trump).

This is where we diverge.  Compared to COVID or 2008-12, I think we are headed back into the kind of boring economy where individual candidates and campaign decisions matter more for the next few years.  This isn't a pro-D thing, though.  Biden probably struggles vs. generic D in a fully in-person toss up campaign, and VA state legislative R's probably overperform generic R in "boring" times.     

[Skill and Chance]

What if any scenario would lead to Republicans winning this office in a Trump won scenario? Can't really think of anything if its Spanberger unless something really scandalous comes out about her.

Successful primary of Spanberger by a crazy person is the most plausible path to an R governor with an R presidency (and somewhat analogous to the last upset of the VA trend in 2013), but even that's a huge stretch.  For statewide offices, the open primary system means anti-Trump R's cross over and choose the most moderate Dem every time.  Combine that with the $200K+ household income outer NOVA Dems who fear CA/NY state income taxes just slightly less than they fear TX/FL social policy, and I just don't see a statewide path for a crazy leftist Dem.

[Skill and Chance]

What would be the most likely split decision?  I'm guessing Spanberger and Dem LG, but Miyares gets reelected as AG given incumbency and the salience of the crime issue in lean D suburbs?  Alternative would be R's end up nominating someone nutty for LG and lose it in an otherwise R leaning year while Sears and Miyares win?

[Skill and Chance]

Since there has been some more detailed VA discussion on the presidential board since that Fox poll came out, that reminded me of this thread.

One thing that will be very interesting in 2025 is the VA HoD.  It was expected to be the harder chamber for Dems to win in 2023, but it ended up being the easier one.  It turned out Dems could have tied the HoD and denied an R trifecta even while losing the statewide PV by 3ish.  And while the result was 51D/49R, the map came very close to crashing Dem.  R's just barely held another 5 seats by 1 or 2% margins, some with very bad Dem candidates and with 4 out of the 5 being in clearly Dem-trending suburbs or college towns.  And there's really only one close-ish Dem seat that's seriously trending away (in a plurality black area west of Hampton Roads).  So there's potential for quite a large Dem HoD majority after 2025.

On the other hand, the supposedly nearly safe D state senate map ended up barely holding thanks to the swing in a very Hispanic PWC district near Manassas.  R's also surprisingly broke into the 40's in a bunch of black opportunity seats between Richmond and Hampton Roads and another majority-minority seat in PWC that were supposed to be ultra safe Dem.  If there is ultimately a serious R swing with black and Hispanic voters, Republicans could actually do quite well in the state senate come 2027 with several more years for that to play out.   

[Skill and Chance]

I am shocked that Rouse is running for Lieutenant Governor so fast after just winning his state senate seat. I would have expected him to be the Democrats' frontrunner for VA-02 in 2026 in a Trump midterm, and he'd probably be heavily favored to beat Kiggans, too. Odd.

It is odd TBH.  That is also precisely the State Senate seat Dems should not want to have a random off-cycle special election in!

*Though this would mean he already won LG, so they would maintain control through tiebreaking regardless. 

[Skill and Chance]

Since there has been some more detailed VA discussion on the presidential board since that Fox poll came out, that reminded me of this thread.

One thing that will be very interesting in 2025 is the VA HoD.  It was expected to be the harder chamber for Dems to win in 2023, but it ended up being the easier one.  It turned out Dems could have tied the HoD and denied an R trifecta even while losing the statewide PV by 3ish.  And while the result was 51D/49R, the map came very close to crashing Dem.  R's just barely held another 5 seats by 1 or 2% margins, some with very bad Dem candidates and with 4 out of the 5 being in clearly Dem-trending suburbs or college towns.  And there's really only one close-ish Dem seat that's seriously trending away (in a plurality black area west of Hampton Roads).  So there's potential for quite a large Dem HoD majority after 2025.

On the other hand, the supposedly nearly safe D state senate map ended up barely holding thanks to the swing in a very Hispanic PWC district near Manassas.  R's also surprisingly broke into the 40's in a bunch of black opportunity seats between Richmond and Hampton Roads and another majority-minority seat in PWC that were supposed to be ultra safe Dem.  If there is ultimately a serious R swing with black and Hispanic voters, Republicans could actually do quite well in the state senate come 2027 with several more years for that to play out.   

Obligatory reminder that the 2020 numbers in PWC on sites like VPAP or DRA are very incorrect. VA counties in 2020 did not allocate mail by precinct, leading it to be evenly distributed. This mattered most in PVC where the contrast between the east and west Dem partisanship is ginormous.


Frankly, I'm surprised people forgot this so soon, given how much this was said by all VA analysts in 2023, in relation to more seats than just PWC.

This is true. I understand it wasn't actually Biden +27, but there's no way that seat was anywhere close to the 52D/48R 2023 result in 2020.  Furthermore, the eastern PWC state senate district was also underwhelming for Dems, only 57D/43R in an area that could have been like 75% Biden in 2020 after accounting for the vote allocation issues.