DE: Public Policy Polling: Coons with Solid Lead over O'Donnell in Delaware

[Smash255]

I suspect Coons's margin is smaller than this because this poll was taken right before the primary, so there was probably a lot more bad blood between moderates and conservatives then than there will be once the primary results are accepted. That's not to say that O'Donnell is going to win, it's just that Coons shouldn't expect to win by this much. Plus, I suspect that Rasmussen will have him up by a slimmer margin when they poll this race today.

The poll was taken over the weekend as well. Take that as you will.

That said, none of the Castle campaign workers I spoke with today(I had a couple friends from old times in CRs who went down or were working there) are even thinking of supporting O'Donnell. About half are sitting the election out, the other half working for Coons. All were going to vote for him. Castle was very well-liked, and the degree of that attacks on the "establishment" "elitists" "rinos" caused a lot of bad blood. Among a group that largely thinks that Obama is worse than Carter, I heard repeatedly that no one cares about the President anymore, its just about revenge.

Now that may die down a bit. It probably will publicly. But genuine anger at O'Donnell and more importantly the people in the conservative media who are seen as enabling her is very real. Cornyn and Rove were just lost control last night in expressing it, but its real. And its important to note that this is not Nevada or Alaska or Kentucky in terms of who went down. No one there cared on a gut and deeply personal level whether you slimed Sue Lowden, and Murkowski always had her detractors. No one had a problem with Castle prior to this, and then "the out-of-staters and this ISI fraudster came in".

I don't know what Rassmussen will show, but guessing it will be very similar to this, but with Coon's numbers depressed a bit, say 48-37 or so. But O'Donnell is going to struggle mightily to even reach her 2008 performance in voter preference. Different turnout dynamics will help, but she is badly bleeding McCain supporters from what I can see, much less going after  Obama/Biden voters, even repentant ones.

The PPP tweet showing Castle Primary voters breaking for Coons 44/28 was very telling.  The 14% favorable 63% unfavorable ratings among moderates might be one of the most hilarious things I have ever seen

[Smash255]

I'm not very impressed by 50-34.  Fortunately for some, this poll is already out-of-date, much like the NH one.

How much is he supposed to lead by exactly? Joe Biden only beat her by 30 in a huge Democratic year when she got no attention from anyone. A 16 point spread looks pretty good to me.

In the middle of a nasty as hell primary?  ok...  She's still unelectable, but my point is that this isn't all that.

What races are there, where few ads have been run, where one candidate is above 50 and the other is below 35, do you view as still competitive? 

I don't think anyone would argue that it is competitive at the moment. I merely suspect that as Election Day gets nearer, the margin between Coons and O'Donnell will narrow.

Based off what??  Her negatives are simply WAYYYYY too high.

[Smash255]

What an f'ing disaster.  She didn't even get a primary bump.

Rarely is there a primary bump.  I remember Rendell behind Fisher in 2002.

I would not count too much on the first number.

Coons is running some moderately good commercials.

Rasmussen's likely voter screen tends to lead its way to some "Primary bumps"

[Smash255]

What an f'ing disaster.  She didn't even get a primary bump.

Rarely is there a primary bump.  I remember Rendell behind Fisher in 2002.

I would not count too much on the first number.

Coons is running some moderately good commercials.

Rasmussen's likely voter screen tends to lead its way to some "Primary bumps"

I don't think there is a "primary bump," like you find after a presidential nomination convention.

I'm not saying an actual Primary bump exists, I am saying that Rasmussen has had Primary bumps in his post-primary polls.

[Smash255]

I'm not very impressed by 50-34.  Fortunately for some, this poll is already out-of-date, much like the NH one.

How much is he supposed to lead by exactly? Joe Biden only beat her by 30 in a huge Democratic year when she got no attention from anyone. A 16 point spread looks pretty good to me.

In the middle of a nasty as hell primary?  ok...  She's still unelectable, but my point is that this isn't all that.

What races are there, where few ads have been run, where one candidate is above 50 and the other is below 35, do you view as still competitive? 

I don't think anyone would argue that it is competitive at the moment. I merely suspect that as Election Day gets nearer, the margin between Coons and O'Donnell will narrow.

Based off what??  Her negatives are simply WAYYYYY too high.

As I already pointed out, this was taken after an extremely negative primary and before O'Donnell raised nearly a million dollars, let alone spent it.

Thats not going to turn around her insanely high negatives.  I mean look at these numbers among moderates....

14% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

No coming back from that, not to mention more of her bats*** craziness has come out since then.

[Smash255]

I'm not very impressed by 50-34.  Fortunately for some, this poll is already out-of-date, much like the NH one.

How much is he supposed to lead by exactly? Joe Biden only beat her by 30 in a huge Democratic year when she got no attention from anyone. A 16 point spread looks pretty good to me.

In the middle of a nasty as hell primary?  ok...  She's still unelectable, but my point is that this isn't all that.

What races are there, where few ads have been run, where one candidate is above 50 and the other is below 35, do you view as still competitive?  

I don't think anyone would argue that it is competitive at the moment. I merely suspect that as Election Day gets nearer, the margin between Coons and O'Donnell will narrow.

Based off what??  Her negatives are simply WAYYYYY too high.

As I already pointed out, this was taken after an extremely negative primary and before O'Donnell raised nearly a million dollars, let alone spent it.

Thats not going to turn around her insanely high negatives.  I mean look at these numbers among moderates....

14% Favorable
63% Unfavorable

No coming back from that, not to mention more of her bats*** craziness has come out since then.

Independents would be a better statistic. Moderates tend to be left-leaning in actuality; polls have shown most GOP candidates losing among 'moderates' and yet winning due to their majority among Independents.

Among Independents its
31% Favorable
46% Unfavorable

In a state Democrats have an 18 point advantage, #'s like that among Independents makes you completely unelectable.

Also as far as moderates go, in a state like Delaware you not only need to appeal to Independents if you are going to have a chance (which she doesn't), but you need to appeal to some Democrats as well, specifically those that tend to label themselves as moderates.  A -49 favorable??  No way.