NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

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Boooo. 

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Nassau BoE, which is ahead of the AP, has McCarthy up by 1 with 20% in:
http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/boe/results.html

a little over 6 now.

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Why have they already called California for Boxer when it's bascially tied? And Nevada, well, it would have been bad either way. I guess Reid will still be Senate majority leader.

Based off what is in.  Very little of San Francisco is in.

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McMahon is gone. Bishop still ahead by a hair; that race has been weirdly stable all night.

86% in Bishop up 51.07-48.93

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So the Tear Party won what? Paul? Buck looks to be in trouble. Angle, O'Donnell lost. Rubio won, but he's not really been a crazy tea partier.

Toomey?

Toomey is a Club for Growther.

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Oh hot damn, Tim Bishop's up 2 with 10% remaining...gotta hope what's left is in the Hamptons...

50.92-49.08 Bishop up 95% in.

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Bishop looks to have it locked.  He is up 50.93-49.07 (3,332 votes)  99.35% in (all but 3 precincts are in)

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I am quite surprised by the quick call for Boxer. This one is going to be close, although Boxer should win.

Fiorina still has a shot, surprising really.

No she doesn't.

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Uh, Jefferson still has <1% reporting. It has some strong Republican areas in it. Ditto for Arapahoe, which has only 10% in.

About 1/2 of Jefferson is now in, Bennet slightly ahead, looks to be keeping pace with the early vote in Jefferson.  Very little of Araphoe still in, early vote went to Bennet.

With what is left in Boulder and Denver (and to a lesser extent Adams) considering all of Weld is in and the vast majority of El Paso and Douglas are in, Bennet will win.

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All of Douglas is now in.  Buck up 6,865,  I don't see anyway how Buck wins this outside of some other error out there which went the other way.

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Bunch more came in from Denver, some from Adams, Morgan.  Margin is now Buck 3,390.

None of Chaffee or ultra small Hinsdale are in.  91% of Adams in, 93% of Denver, still very little outside of the early vote in Araphoe as only 11% are in.  Boulder remains at 64%, San Miguel 83%.

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The Denver Post has called the race for Michael Bennet.

Colorado now has a Dem Governor and 2 Dem Senators. And 2 were elected in one of the worst cycles for Dems ever.

We're becoming a landlocked Washington state!

Although, the Republicans do have 4 of the 7 House seats, and they won back the state House (though narrowly). They have also held the AG, are on track to win the SoS race, and are neck and neck in the Treasurer's race.

How did Perlmutter managed to survive so comfortably?
CO-7 is supposed to be the epitome of the swing district.

It was, not anymore.  Suburban Denver swung pretty heavily Democratic over the last few years, didn't swing back.

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Altschuler will win...seriously? Yuccccccck.

In the end I think Bishop will pull it out.    Out of about 13,000 absentee ballots issued, 9,901 have been returned, and breakout to 39.92-36.47 in favor of the GOP, an advantage of 3.45% for the GOP.    Active voter rolls in the district is 35.87-29.90 in favor of the GOP, advantage of 5.97% for the GOP.

Combine that with the fact Election Day turnout likely favored the GOP, you are probably looking at somewhere along the lines of an 8-9 point registration advantage on Election Day compared to the 3.45% advantage of the absentee ballots.  Also keep in mind that the Absentee ballots are likely disproportionately from the Hamptons, and that area is typically more Democratic than registration numbers would suggest.

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Who will win the remaining house races?  I have a fairly good idea about KY-06, CA-08, and NY-01, but I'm not sure about the rest...

I'm fairly excited that Altschuler might win -- another Jewish Republican in congress sounds great!

as I said earlier the fact that the GOP advantage with the absentees is less than the district as a whole (with an even larger registration advantage considering the turnout) as well as the heavier concentration on the east end, Altschuler likely needs more than a 400 vote lead without the absentees to win.

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Costa will win CA-20. There is next to nothing to count as someone noted from Kings, which is the Pubbie's base. So it looks like probably the GOP will pick up 62 seats net, assuming that they bag NY-1 and NY-25.

If they win both NY-01 and NY-25, they will pick up 63 seats (remember, TX-27 was recently called for the GOP).

They might even be able to pick up 64 if they win in IL-08 (what's going on with that, by the way?).

Based off the breakout of the absentees Bishop likely wins.

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Not sure if this was answered earlier in the thread or not, but does anyone know how Dioguardi wound up with those 50,000 extra votes in Niagara County?

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Just an update on NY-1.  Absentees from the 60 ED's in Smithtown within the 1st district as well as 39 of the 42 ED's in the Town of Southampton have been counted, lowering Altschuler's margin to 280.  

The towns of East Hampton and Southold absentees will be counted today, no word yet on when Brookhaven (which is the largest), Riverhead or Shelter Island (the smallest) will be counted.

This is pretty good news for Bishop, Smithown is easily the most Republican portion of the district (McCain won it by 15..  The Southampton portion of the district went to Obama by 13.9.  The combination of the two went to McCain by 4 in a district Obama won by 4.  So Bishop picked up about 100 votes with the areas counted being a few points more GOP than the rest of the district.

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Supposedly Altschuler's lead is down to 90-odd votes in NY-01. Only source is Newsday, which of course has a paywall.

Paywall doesn't exist for me anymore for some reason.

Anyway Bishop is up 90 votes.  All of Smithtown and Southampton have been counted.  18 of the 19 ED's in Southold have been counted, 17 of the 19 in East Hampton, 3 of 22 in Riverhead.  The remaining 19 in Riverhead, the four in Shelter Island and the 294 in Brookhaven remain to be counted.  

 Bishop has picked up about 300 votes on Altschuler so far with about 1/3 of the absentees counted.  Generally both the most Republican and most Democratic areas have been counted.  

 What remains to be counted is probably slightly more Democratic than what has been counted so far, (though considering the higher concentration of absentees in East Hampton and Southampton, what remains might be slightly more GOP than was counted).  Either way what remains to be counted compared to what has already been counted likely won't benefit any side more than a minimal amount.

 Considering Bishop has picked up 300 votes so far, based off the fact 2/3 of absentees are left, and the areas that remain to be counted, Bishop will likely win.   Also Altschuler's camp has challenged more ballots than Bishop (486-318) the challenged ballots are not reflected in the 90 vote lead.  The challenge ballots by the Altschuler camp include absentees by Bishop's parents.

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If Bishop wins, and the Pubbie prevails in NY-25, which is still quite likely, but a bit more problematical than it was (the Dems have done well with the absentee ballots in Syracuse, and slashed the Pubbies lead substantially, but a third of what remains to be counted is from heavily GOP Wayne), my 63 seat "prediction" of Pubbie gains will be well, exactly right.  Pity about NY-1 though from my perspective. The Pubbie seems like someone "we" need.

Great analysis Smash in any event. Thanks.

An outsourcing millionaire is someone the GOP needs??

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If Bishop wins, and the Pubbie prevails in NY-25, which is still quite likely, but a bit more problematical than it was (the Dems have done well with the absentee ballots in Syracuse, and slashed the Pubbies lead substantially, but a third of what remains to be counted is from heavily GOP Wayne), my 63 seat "prediction" of Pubbie gains will be well, exactly right.  Pity about NY-1 though from my perspective. The Pubbie seems like someone "we" need.

Great analysis Smash in any event. Thanks.

An outsourcing millionaire is someone the GOP needs??

Well, if Bishop loses, Alec Baldwin claims he will run in 2012.  A Hollyweird moron running for the Democrats Is something Pubbies need - though I doubt that's what Torie was thinking.

Baldwin graduated high school where I went to Junior High (the district use to have two high schools, but went to one during the 80's, the h.s Baldwin went to became the Jr High)

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As of earlier today it is now 81 vote Altschuler lead.  East Hampton and Southold were finished, absentees from two additional districts in Riverhead were counted (now 5 of 22), 1 of 4 in Shelter Island were counted.

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Its now a 45 vote lead according to Newsday as the count moves towards Brookhaven.

Of the areas in which the absentees have been counted, Altschuler won the election day count 50.49-49.45, Bishop won the election day count  Brookhaven 50.11-49.82.  Brookhaven is by far the largest of the towns in the district  (made up 62.62% of the election day ballots) has about 5,000 absentee ballots

Edit.  A few sources are reporting Altschuler's lead is 30 votes as the Brookhaven count starts.  Also Altchuler has so far challenged 211 more ballots than Bishop (the challenged ballots have yet to be counted).  Its not known who the challenged votes are for, but age, party affiliation and residence are known.

http://www.27east.com/news/article.cfm/Southampton/312923/#comments

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According to a tweet from Reid Epstein of Newsday, Bishop is now up by 15 votes.

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Still uncounted are Brookhaven and Riverhead --two Republican townships, and there are more registered republicans who took absentee ballots than there were democrats. The feeling here is Bishop had to do better than he did in his hometown of Southampton, and better than he has in East Hampton, which is 2 to 1 Democrat. I predict Randy by 800 votes.

Riverhead has been counted.   Some of Brookhaven has been counted, but most still remains (41 of 294 ED's).  Everything else has been counted.

Bishop won Brookhaven narrowly on Election Day (50.11-49.82).

As far as more registered Republican absentees than Democrats.  That is true, but the GOP registration advantage with the absentees is actually smaller than the GOP registration advantage in the district. 

[Smash255]

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Still uncounted are Brookhaven and Riverhead --two Republican townships, and there are more registered republicans who took absentee ballots than there were democrats. The feeling here is Bishop had to do better than he did in his hometown of Southampton, and better than he has in East Hampton, which is 2 to 1 Democrat. I predict Randy by 800 votes.

Riverhead has been counted.   Some of Brookhaven has been counted, but most still remains (41 of 294 ED's).  Everything else has been counted.

Bishop won Brookhaven narrowly on Election Day (50.11-49.82).

As far as more registered Republican absentees than Democrats.  That is true, but the GOP registration advantage with the absentees is actually smaller than the GOP registration advantage in the district.  

If that's the case, Bishop should come out ahead by 25 votes.  

I would say quite a bit more than that, my guess would be 250-300 or so.  On top of that you also have the challenged ballots (which have yet to be counted).  Altschuler has challenged over 200 more ballots than Bishop.

 The absentees were more Democratic than the district as a whole.  Granted we don't know which precincts in Brookhaven were already counted, but out of those the 41 that were Bishop picked up 45 votes over Altschuler.   The areas outside of Brookhaven went to Altschuler by a shade under 1% on Election Day, but as far as the absentees, Bishop picked up about 350 votes on Altschuler.  62.6% of the Election Day ballots were cast in Brookhaven, the absentees were probably a little less than that.