Why did Kerry lose Virginia so badly in 2004?

[Smash255]

Obviously the state was more conservative back then, but it’s not like it wasn’t already considered a potential sleeper state in 2004. It was too close to call for a while on election night, and apparently there were polls showing a close race:  

Tuesday, August 03, 2004

In Virginia, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows President Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator Kerry with 46%. In Election 2000, Bush won Virginia by nine percentage points, beating Al Gore 53% to 44%. Last month, our Virginia poll found Bush leading 48% to 45%. The month before, it was Bush 47% Kerry 45%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2004/virginia_bush_49_kerry_46

I know these were conducted before the Republican convention, but I find it weird that the state swung Republican in 2004 given the rapid R collapse since then and Bush's underperformance in 2000.

Virginia still did trend Democratic in 2004, it just wasn't quite there yet.

[Smash255]

The War on Terror helped the GOP there but it still trended D. 2004 being a foreign policy dominated election (The only one since 1992) helped the GOP in many Affluent Suburbs that had been trending D.

If you see the trend line since 1996 this is how it goes

1996: R+10.45
2000: R+8.5
2004: R+5.8
2008: R+0.9
2012: Even
2016: D+3.2


I would say without the crash in 08 McCain probably narrowly wins Virginia in 2008 and its probably 3 points more Republican than nation as whole(He still loses the election as he still wins OH, IA and NV)

This is also interesting. Not much of a Democratic trend in 2012, but then again Republicans still had a lot of room for growth in the rural parts of the state, and Romney didn’t collapse in NOVA/Richmond suburbs/etc. like Trump. Still, it makes you wonder if the state was really winnable for Republicans in 2012 or if Romney's 4-point loss was actually an overperformance or at least a GOP best-case scenario that year.

Romney was probably the best Republican for the middle to upper middle class suburban voter that started to shift away from the GOP.