VA Sen: Report says Davis (R) likely to drop out

[Smash255]

This seat in Virginia will be the easiet DEm pickup of them all

People seem to have the silly idea that he represents a seat that would be a Democratic stronghold without him as the Republican candidate. The seat would be extremely competitive if Davis were to retire in the current political climate o/c, but these two things are quite different.

Stronghold, probably not, however the Dems would be the strong favorite in an open seat.  Its a district in one of if not the heaviest Dem trending area in the entire country, basically assured to go Dem on the Presidential level.  And if the Dems win nationally by a few points would likely be a double digit Dem victory on the Pres level.  Its quite hard for someone to win an open seat in a district which went to the opposing party's Presidential candidate by double digits.

[Smash255]

Why is his wife so likely to lose?

Its the most Democratic district of any seat held by the Republicans, also much like the rest of Fairfax County and the rest of the NOVA suburbs of D.C its trending heavily Democratic as well.

[Smash255]

Why is his wife so likely to lose?

Because polls have shown it likely to be so?

Also, how many Republicans do you know are so eager to admit they're only 'Republicans in name only'?

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http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2007-09-30-0169.html

So what's her district like?

And in what states are there actually polls for state legislative races? I've never seen one here. Are districts much larger? Here State Senate districts are only about 70,000 and State House ones half that.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/02/AR2007100202235.html

Their are 40 State Senate seats in Virginia, based off the population the district had about 175,000 people in 2000, probably closer to 200,000 now with approx 120,000 with 117,000 active registered voters according to the Virginia board of elections.  The district is more liberal than Davis's Congressional district.  Davis's congressional district voted narrowly for the amendment banning same sex marriage (by about 4.3%) while his wife's senate district voted against it (though I don't know the percentages)