official SC Democratic results thread

[Smash255]

28.92% victory WOW

[Smash255]

Does anyone know what this means for the vote in New York?  Isn't New York State almost 20% black?  I'd imagine a higher percentage of Democratic Primary Voters will be black as well.

New York State is about 16% black, I saw something on CNN about 17%, (which might be % of registered voters that were black).  Looking at some of the Party breakdowns of some of the heavily black districts they are generally in the upper 70's % wise for the Dems (of registered voters)  So 75% Democratic would be a safe bet for blacks in NY state.


According to the NY Board of elections as of Nov 07 their are 11,245,218 registered voters in NY state.  Assuming 17% of those registered are black (according to CNN) you have 1,911,687 registered black voters in NY.  NY state also has 5,336,241 registered Democrats.

if registered blacks are 70% democratic blacks would account for 25.1% of registered  Dems

at 75% they would account for  26.9% of registered Dems

at 80% they would account for 28.7% of registered Dems

[Smash255]

blacks comprised 20% of the NY Democratic primary electorate in 2004

Sounds about right.  They could be higher in this one.  Of course, he'll get killed in all those upstate cities and among the Jews and Catholics (and probably the Hispanics and Chinese in the city), but it won't be an embarrassment, probably.

Keep in mind that by the time the 04 Primary reached NY, it was already over, so that may have reduced Primary turnout for blacks a bit as they are less likely to come out in the primary in the 1st place.  Thinking about it some more the upper 20's might be a tad high, but 20% is probably a bit low as well.   Blacks will probably make up right around 25% of the vote in NY dem primary.  Turnout among both whites and blacks in S.C were amazingly high, but it looks like it was even stronger among blacks compared to normal.  IIRC the white/black split among registered Dems in S.C is right around 50/50, according to the exit polls it was 45/55.

[Smash255]

Isn't it kind of sad that the Democrats had much higher vote totals in South Carolina?

Yes. Republicans can't even win turnout in their core states. Pathetic.

Especially when the Republican race was decided by 3 points while the Democratic race was a 28-point blowout.

basically 29, (28.92)