National Tracking Poll Thread

[MorningInAmerica]

Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

[MorningInAmerica]

For those looking for the Reuters update, follow @steveholland1 on twitter. He's a Reuters reporter who often tweets the results before they get it into an article and update their site (though his feed looks a bit dead this weekend).

[MorningInAmerica]

Where those 10 point leads, guys? Bounce may have stalled on Reuters, and Gallup shows ominous signs with the 4 point drop in Obama's net job approval.

[MorningInAmerica]

That's ridiculous. Only 2 of the 4 nights of the survey were conducted after Obama's speech, and only one after the August jobs report. That would be stupid to stop now. If they're going to stop, why not wait til Tuesday?

Edited to note that apparently Reuter's polls on the same day they release results, so 3 of the four days of the survey were conducted after Obama's speech, and 2 after the August jobs report.

[MorningInAmerica]

Gallup also measures economic confidence and it's at it's highest since late May, so why did his approval take such a hit?

It may have something to do with the difference between polling on weekends vs. polling on weekdays. Or it could be the jobs report. If Obama continues to gain tomorrow and the approval recovers or stabilizes, I'd go with the former.

[MorningInAmerica]

Gonna go out on a limb here, but I'm thinking today may be Obama's peak on Gallup. Something about that sharp job approval reversal, and yesterday being first full day of surveys after the awful August jobs report, makes me think Obama may peak at 49% (w/ RVs, keep in mind). If he doesn't peak today, I think he's very close to it. We'll see tomorrow.

And remember, McCain/Palin led Obama-Biden 54-44% w/ likely voters in a USAToday/Gallup poll released after the RNC. And Dukakis led Bush by 17 points following his.

I'd give it another day on the tracking polls.  

There was a bounce on Gallup's tracker for Romney, which was ephemeral.  This one is probably ephemeral too.

Eh.  Remember, Ras/Gallup are the two most R-favorable polls on the books this season.

Though neither is as Republican leaning as PPP is Dem, as you can see, per Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

[MorningInAmerica]

Obama's lead in the Rasmussen swing-state poll is still only 1 point, 46-45%, same as yesterday. And with leaners, it's tied 47-47%.

[MorningInAmerica]

Monday, September 10 update:

Obama is up one more point on Rasmussen, though his job approval rating remains the same from yesterday (52/47%).

Rasmussen: Obama +5
Obama: 50% (+1)
Romney: 45% (no change)

Rasmussen w/ Leaners: Obama +4
Obama: 50% (no change)
Romney: 46% (-1)

Interestingly, the swing-state poll hasn't budged in 3 days, and still shows a tie with leaners. That may have something to do with the fact that those states are being bombarded w/ television ads.

Rasmussen swing state poll: Romney +1
Obama: 46% (no change)
Romey: 45% (no change)

Rasmussen swing-state w/ leaners: TIE
Obama: 47% (no change)
Romney: 47% (no change)

Obama appears to have maxed out on Gallup. His job approval rating also saw no change from yesterday (50-44%).

Gallup: Obama +5 w/ RVs
Obama: 49% (no change)
Romney: 44% (no change)

After stalling for 2 straight days at 47-43%, Obama gains another point on Romney with likely voters, with 4/4 days of this poll occurring after Obama's speech. So apparently, Ipsos isn't stopping yet (and hopefully they won't at all).

Ipsos (unless they're done tracking): Obama +5
Obama: 48% (+1)
Romney: 43% (no change)

So it appears this race has settled into roughly a 5 point Obama advantage. Which mean it's not over, but reason to be anxious.

[MorningInAmerica]

Obama +5 in Rasmussen must be some sort of record.

There was a time in February (during the heart of the Republican primary), where Obama consistently led Romney by 5-8 points, and even led by as much as 50-40% (on Feb. 10). The last time Obama led Romney by more than 5 points (excluding leaners), was March 17th, when Obama led 49-43%. So its been quite a while since Obama has seen this level of support on Ras. But he has been in a better position than he is right now.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_presidential_election_matchups2

[MorningInAmerica]

Rasmussen Tracker w/ leaners today:
Obama: 49% (-1)
Romney: 47% (+1)

Appears yesterday was the last day of the bounce on Rasmussen. We'll see if the same applies to Gallup and Reuters.

[MorningInAmerica]

Reuters Update for Tuesday, September 11th

Obama drops 2 points.

Obama: 46% (-2)
Romney: 43% (no change)

So both Rasmussen and Reuters show Obama falling today, while Gallup (of registered voters) finds Obama continuing today.

[MorningInAmerica]

Romney actually retakes the LEAD today on Rasmussen with leaners included.

Romney - 48% (+1)
Obama - 47% (-2)

[MorningInAmerica]

Obama bumps up 1 in Gallup Tracking poll, now leads 51 to 43, a 7 point advantage. Obama's approval rating also moves up 1, to 51.

Actually, Romney falls 1 point, Obama stays the same.

Obama: 50% (no change)
Romney: 43% (-1)

[MorningInAmerica]

I'm pretty sure his continued gains have something to do with Gallup using a 7 day rolling average ( in other words, their are still surveys in the rolling average from last Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday (probably some of the stronger days of polling for Obama).

Meanwhile, Ipsos/Reuters tracker does not have any days in their sample pre-Saturday (and Obama has fallen to 46-43%). Same for Rasmussen, where Obama has fallen to 46-45%.

The convention bounce continues!

That depends on the poll you're looking at. 2/3 daily trackers show it's not continuing. The 7 day tracker of RVs is the only one showing it continuing (which makes sense).

[MorningInAmerica]

Ras tracker:

Romney 47
Obama 46

Including Leaners, Romney takes a 2 point lead on Rasmussen:
Romney: 49%
Obama: 47%.

[MorningInAmerica]

On Rasmussen.

Woops. Thanks. Corrected.

[MorningInAmerica]

Gallup today
Obama: 50% (no change)
Romney: 44% (+1)

Approval down to 49/42, after being 51/42% yesterday.

Well, yeah, for Romney not to be leading on Rasmussen's ridiculous sample would be a disaster for him. Now that Scotty R. has "proved" that he's still a legitimate polling firm by including Obama's convention bump, he can go back to shilling for Mitt and start pushing a "Obama's bounce is completely gone" narrative.

You can't really deny that his bounce is "gone", or fading, on every tracking poll (Reuters, Ras, Gallup). And I love reminding people that Rasmussen's house effect isn't as big as PPPs this year, per Nate Silver. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

[MorningInAmerica]

Rasmussen Poll today , w/ leaners

Obama: 47% (no change)
Romney: 50% (+1)

[MorningInAmerica]

Obama drops 1 in Gallup tracking poll, to 49. Romney stays same at 44. Obama +5.  (As an aside, shows you  how ridiculous Rasmussen's wild swings are)

Well of course Rasmussen is going to swing more wildly than Gallup. Ipsos Reuters did too. That's the difference between using a 7 day rolling average, and a 3 day rolling average.

And seriously, when is Gallup going to switch to LV? What are they waiting for? Halloween?

[MorningInAmerica]

So why is Reuters showing this while Rasmussen is showing what it shows. Both can't be correct.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/13/us-usa-campaign-idUSBRE88C1MS20120913

I think you made my point. I wasn't arguing that Ras and Gallup and Reuters have different numbers. I argued that swings can be related to the length of the rolling average.  Consider that just two days ago Reuters had the race at 46-43%, and then one day later it was 48-41%, and they use a smaller rolling average than Gallup. That sort of backs up what I said to begin with, right?  The smaller the rolling average, the more likely you are to see what YOU referred to as "wild swings."

[MorningInAmerica]

9/17/12 - Monday

Rasmussen: Romney +2
Obama: 45% (-1)
Romney: 46% (-)

w/ leaners: TIE
Obama: 48% (-1)
Romney: 48% (-)

Rasmussen swing state poll: Romney +2
Obama: 45% (-)
Romney: 47% (-)

Rasmussen swing state w/ leaners: Romney +2
Obama: 47%
Romney: 49%

Gallup Registered Voters: Obama +3
Obama: 48% (-)
Romney: 45% (-)

[MorningInAmerica]

Gallup's 7 day rolling average of REGISTERED voters has the race exactly back where it was on Tuesday, before the start of the DNC.

Obama: 47% (-1)
Romney: 46% (+1)

[MorningInAmerica]

Gallup:

Obama: 48% (-)
Romney: 45% (-1).

Obama's approval drops from 51/42% to 50/43%. Remember the job rating is on a 3 day rolling average and is of all ADULTS, the horse-race is on a 7 day rolling average and is of registered voters only.