SurveyUSA / Civitas Poll of NC: Romney 53% Obama 43% with REGISTERED VOTERS

[MorningInAmerica]

http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-flash-poll-after-rnc-romney-ahead/

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Romney-Poll-xtab.pdf

Caveat: Poll was taken September 4-6, so only 2/3 surveys were taken AFTER Michelle Obama's speech, and only 1/3 surveys were taken after Bill Clinton's speech. Any effect from Obama's speech, or the August job report, is not included.

Obama: 43% (-5)
Romney: 53% (+4)

Romney led 49-48% in their July poll.

Partisan sample of the poll is D+15.

Romney favorability:
Favorable: 50%
Unfavorable: 40%

Obama favorability:
Favorable: 42%
Unfavorable: 40%

[MorningInAmerica]

Don't they know this will damage their reputation, which already isn't that great?

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Romney-Poll-xtab.pdf

Caveat: Poll was taken September 4-6, so only 2/3 surveys were taken AFTER Michelle Obama's speech, and only 1/3 surveys was taken after Bill Clinton's speech. Any effect from Obama's speech, or the August job report, is not included.

Obama: 43% (-5)
Romney: 53% (+4)

Romney led 49-48% in their July poll.

Partisan sample of the poll is D+15.

Romney favorability:
Favorable: 50%
Unfavorable: 40%

Obama favorability:
Favorable: 42%
Unfavorable: 40%

you kidding right?

SurveyUSA was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2010, according to the Daily Kos / NyTimes Jesus, Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/. Dems on here usually sing their praises and talk about how their top line is good, despite screwy crosstabs (but only when they like the results). There's a much easier, and smarter way to attack this poll. It doesn't account for the full effect of any potential DNC bounce, and is a bit outdated (compared to the PPP poll taken Sep 7-9)

[MorningInAmerica]

[...]
There's a much easier, and smarter way to attack this poll. It doesn't account for the full effect of any potential DNC bounce.

>Implying that Obama was more than ten points behind between the conventions

I'm completely fine with people picking this poll apart (and if you look at the internals, there's plenty to pick apart). My only problem is with people alleging SurveyUSA is a bad firm. Their results, and Nate Silver say otherwise.

[MorningInAmerica]

Apart from the link posted here, I can't find this poll on the websites of SurveyUSA and Civitas.

Pretty weird.

And why would SUSA do a RV-poll after the conventions? Just days before posting their own polls which will likely be LV.

http://www.nccivitas.org/2012/civitas-flash-poll-after-rnc-romney-ahead/

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[MorningInAmerica]

Yes, thanks for reminding me that I didn't include that initially in the title. Edited to fix it.

For the record, I don't see Romney winning NC by 10 at this point either. But it's a poll, by a known firm with a good track record, which is why it was posted.

[MorningInAmerica]

Even Umengus realizes this poll is an outlier. No reasons to defend SUSA this time, MiA.

Seriously Julio, if you had read what I said you would see that I also think this poll is an outlier. Just four posts up I said:

For the record, I don't see Romney winning NC by 10 at this point either. But it's a poll, by a known firm with a good track record, which is why it was posted.

And on the first page of this thread, I'm the one that pointed out the screwy crosstabs:

I'm completely fine with people picking this poll apart (and if you look at the internals, there's plenty to pick apart). My only problem is with people alleging SurveyUSA is a bad firm. Their results, and Nate Silver say otherwise.

Either you're just trying to pick a fight, or you genuinely didn't read. I'm not defending this poll. I'm defending this pollster, whom, like I said, has a good track record according to Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

[MorningInAmerica]

Even Umengus realizes this poll is an outlier. No reasons to defend SUSA this time, MiA.

Seriously Julio, did you even read? Just four posts up I stated:

For the record, I don't see Romney winning NC by 10 at this point either. But it's a poll, by a known firm with a good track record, which is why it was posted.

And on the first page of this thread, I'm the one that pointed out the screwy crosstabs:

I'm completely fine with people picking this poll apart (and if you look at the internals, there's plenty to pick apart). My only problem is with people alleging SurveyUSA is a bad firm. Their results, and Nate Silver say otherwise.

Seriously Julio, either you're just trying to pick a fight, or you genuinely didn't read. I'm not defending this poll. I'm defending this pollster, whom, like I said, has a good track record according to Nate Silver: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

SUSA is a pollster, MIA.

Huh? I know that, and I'm defending the pollster, the polling firm, the COMPANY THAT TOOK THE POLL, which is SurveyUSA. I'm NOT defending the poll. Fact is SUSA isn't a poor pollster. Just looks like they got one wrong this time.

[MorningInAmerica]

Ok, that was probably the problem. Sorry, I thought you were defending the poll AND the pollster BTW, SUSA usually releases weird polls before October.

Thank you.

And yeah, the last poll to show a lead this large for Romney in North Carolina came from September of LAST year, by of none other than SurveyUSA/Civitas, when they had Romney up 50-39. So this one without question stands out amongst the other ones.