More information can be found about this topic here:
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/pe2000bellwether.php
There are also eight counties that had a perfect record for the ten elections between 1960 and 1996. One, Ferry County, Washington, is a semi-bellwether. In 1988, it had a tie down to the very vote between Dukakis and Bush.
In 2000, the streaks were ruined for the state of Delaware, as well as New Castle County, Del., and Socorro County, N.M. All of the other bellwethers remain so.
The state results in 2000 for the bellwether states were:
Delaware - Kerry +13.1
Missouri - Bush +3.3
The bellwether county results were:
New Castle, DE - Gore +23.0
Socorro, NM - Gore +1.8
Vigo, IN - Bush +1.2
Van Buren, AR - Bush +4.1
Lincoln, MO - Bush +10.0
Logan, AR - Bush +14.8
Eddy, NM - Bush +18.1
Ferry, WA - Bush +31.7
If Bush wins, it is almost definite that the last four counties will remain bellwethers; if Kerry wins, we may lose all of them, except perhaps Vigo County and Van Buren County. It all depends on the outcome.
I would be interested in stats about what county votes closest to the national percentage. Does anyone have that?
I had written Dave on this subject before the 2000 election. At that time the Atlas did not have county results before 1960, but I was able to track them down in America at the Polls 1920-1964" by Scammon.
IIRC, Dave was able to find the bellwether counties graphically by overlaying maps.
The streak of a few of the counties began before 1960:
New Castle, DE had been right since 1936 (it voted for Hoover in 1932). If we go by the national popular vote, it has been right 17 straight times.
Socorro, NM has|had been right since 1952 (it voted for Dewey in 1948).
Vigo, IN has been right since 1956. Going by the electoral vote, it is now the national bellwether at 12 straight elections.
The other 5: Logan, AR; Van Buren, AR; Lincoln, MO; Eddy, NM, and Ferry, WA all started their streak in 1960.
Before the 2000 election, there were 75 other counties whose streak began in 1964 (i.e. they had voted for Nixon in 1960). By state: Arkansas (2), Florida (2), Illinois (11), Indiana (
, Iowa (2), Kansas (1), Kentucky (1), Michigan (1), Minnesota (3), Missouri (17), New Jersey (2), Ohio (7), Oklahoma (1), South Dakota (1), Tennessee (6), Virginia (2), West Virginia (5), and Wisconsin (3).
There is one other county that is a possible bellwether - Valencia. NM. In 1981, the western part of the county was split off to form Cibola County, which is more Democratic-leaning. In 1976, the pre-split county was carried by Carter by 4.4%, so it is possible that the current area of Valencia County was carried by Ford. Otherwise, it is possible that its streak began in 1952.
As for the States, Delaware has picked the popular vote winner since 1952.
Missouri has picked the EV winner since 1960. Had it not messed up in 1956, it would have been with the winner in every election of the 20th century (Bryan carried Missouri in 1900). In 1956, Missouri switched from Eisenhower to Stevenson by 4,000 votes (0.2%), in a election in which Stevenson only carried 7 States, 6 in the South, even losing VA, KY, TN, FL, LA, and TX.
