Targeting 75 House seats?

[jimrtex]

Based on the House Clerk's results, pickups were:

If the 1992 incumbent's name is in parentheses, they were not a candidate in the 1994 general election.  Democrat pickups are in red.

AZ-1 Salmon > (Coppersmith)
AZ-6 Hayworth > English

CA-1 Hamburg > Riggs
CA-19 Radanovich > Lehman
CA-49 Bilbray > Schenk

FL-1 Scarborough > (Hutto)
FL-15 Weldon > (Bacchus)

GA-7 Barr > Darden
GA-8 Chambliss > (Rowland)
GA-10 Norwood > Johnson

ID-1 Chenoweth > LaRocco

IL-5 Flanagan > Rostenkowski
IL-11 Weller > Sangmeister

IN-2 McIntosh > (Sharp)
IN-4 Souder > Long
IN-8 Hostetller > McCloskey

IA-4 Ganske > Smith

KS-1 Brownback > Slattery
KS-4 Tiahrt > Glickman

KY-1 Whitfield > Barlow
KY-2 Lewis > (Natcher)

ME-1 Longley > (Andrews)
ME-2 Baldacci > (Snowe)

MI-8 Chrysler > (Carr)

MN-1 Gutknecht > (Penny)
MN-2 Luther > (Grams)

MS-1 Wicker > (Whitten)

NE-2 Christensen > Hoagland

NV-1 Ensign > Bilbray

NH-2 Bass > Swett

NJ-2 LoBiondo > (Hughes)
NJ-8 Martini > Klein

NY-1 Forbes > Hochbrueckner
NY-4 Frisa > Levy**
NY-19 Kelly > Fish***

**Levy was elected in 1992 as the Republican and Conservative candidate.  Frisa was elected in 1994 as the Republican candidate, while Levy ran as a Conservative.

***Fish was elected in 1992 as a Republican, but was defeated in 1994 running as a Democrat.

NC-2 Funderbunk > (Valentine)
NC-3 Jones > Lancaster
NC-4 Heineman > Price
NC-5 Burr > (Neal)

OH-1 Chabot > Mann
OH-6 Cremeans > Strickland
OH-18 Ney > (Applegate)
OH-19 LaTourette > Fingerhut

OK-2 Coburn > (Synar)
OK-4 Watts > (McCurdy)
OK-6 Lucas > (English)

OR-5 Bunn > (Kopetski)

PA-13 Fox > Margolies-Mezvinsky
PA-18 Doyle > (Santorum)

SC-3 Graham > (Derrick)

TN-3 Wamp > (Lloyd)
TN-4 Hilleary > (Cooper)

TX-9 Stockman > Brooks
TX-13 Thornberry > Sarpalius

UT-2 Waldholtz > Shepherd

VA-11 Davis > Byrne

WA-1 White > Cantwell
WA-2 Metcalf > (Swift)
WA-3 Smith > Unsoeld
WA-4 Hastings > Inslee
WA-5 Nethercutt > Foley
WA-9 Tate > Kreidler

WI-1 Neumann > (Aspin)

Of the 59 GOP gains, 23 were in seats where the 1992 Democrat incumbent was not the defeated candidate in 1994.  At least 3 of these open seats were created by a Democrat unsuccessfully trying to move to the Senate.  If I'm not mistaken, there was a buyout around this time, where retiring congressmen could convert their campaign funds into personal funds.

The 3 Democrat pickups were all in seats where the Republican incumbent successfully moved to the Senate.  5 of the GOP gainers now represent their state in the Senate.

The GOP pickups were geographically distributed as: Northeast 7, Midwest 16, West 15, South 21.

In general it wasn't a case of Republicans squeaking by for upsets.  There were maybe another 15 to 20 Democrat seats where the Democrat held on by a narrow margin.

Democrats had a huge falloff in support from the 1992 election (presidential year), in some cases more than 50%.   Republican fall off was much more modest.  There could also be a residual redistricting effect, especially in the seats where the 1992 incumbent did not run. Line drawers might include more voters of the opposing party, knowing that some will cross over to the incument.

Regional and state differences appear to be pretty much a case of opportunity.  

For example, Washington had a bunch of seats that were competitive and within reach. The 1992 cumulative vote was Democrats : Republican, 1.237:0.911 million, and the Democrats held an 8:1 majority in the delegation. The 6 seats that fell were all within 15%.  In 1994, the cumulative vote was Republicans : Democrats  0.948:0.752 million. The Republicans had a 4% pickup, and the Democrats a 39% drop off.

In Wisconsin, the Republican : Democrat cumulative total was 1.210:1.154 million, and the Republicans held a 5:4 delegation majority.  In 1994, the GOP majority was 0.893:0.548 million, a 26% drop for the Republicans, and a 53% dropoff for the Democrats.  The Republicans narrowly took the seat that Les Aspin had vacated to become Secretary of Defense.  They closed the gap in a pair of other seats from 173:84 to 93:78 (35% to 9%) and from 166:91 to 97:81 (36% to 11%)

In both Wisconsin and Washington, the GOP picked up every seat they had a realistic shot at, but in Wisconsin they started from a slight advantage that was reflected in their delegation majority.  In Washington, the delegation was not close to representing the popular vote support for the two parties, and there were 6 competitive seats.